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Q3 countdown

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Sep 3, 2018.

?
  1. Loss -$1,000M or more

    1 vote(s)
    11.1%
  2. Loss -$100M to -$999M range

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Loss -$10M to -$99M

    1 vote(s)
    11.1%
  4. Even -$9M to $9M

    3 vote(s)
    33.3%
  5. Profit $10M to $99M

    1 vote(s)
    11.1%
  6. Profit $100M to $999M

    1 vote(s)
    11.1%
  7. Profit $1,000M or more

    2 vote(s)
    22.2%
  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I'm waiting on Monday, Oct 1, with a $265 offer for TSLA. <GRINS>

    Bob Wilson
     
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  2. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Indeed, understood that. What I didn’t explain, but was wondering, is what comes first: higher margin higher trim exports to Germany or SR delivered in U.S. first.

    I had no skin in the game until 2 days ago. But now as an investor have a financial interest in Tesla filling higher margin overseas orders first. Suspect this has been Tesla’s strategy, and one of the reasons I invested.

    Germany would get the same left sided steering wheel versions. So would see him getting one of the current LR trims available in the U.S. in the not-too-distant future if that is what he reserved. If instead he put a $1k deposit on a $35k SR, he would have indeed likely given Tesla a long term 0% interest loan.:D

    Good luck, hope it goes through for you. But with the settlement yesterday, this seems a better outcome for Tesla than many feared which drove the stock down almost 14% that day. I’m would wager will open quite a bit higher than Friday’s close.
     
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  3. Fred_H

    Fred_H Misoversimplifier

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    No, long range, aero, maybe dual motor, autopilot, maybe full self driving.
    I pre-reserved fairly late, on Christmas day 2017, about 500,000th place, so I figure it will be about two years until I am invited to place my order.
    I think not even Tesla knows if the standard range model will be in production by the time EU deliveries begin. I would expect to be able to order any trim that would be currently in production at that time. But delivery time might be longer for lower priced trims.

    If my desired configuration is not orderable, I can wait at the front of the line until it is.

    I don't expect Tesla to offer a $35,000 model 3 in the EU. Ever.
     
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  4. tpenny67

    tpenny67 Active Member

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    In retrospect, using the term "retirement savings" was wrong. It is in fact money above and beyond basic retirement savings that I can afford to lose, and have been toying with the idea of investing in individual stocks. I don't see much upside to Tesla stock, which has been an unpopular opinion with some members.

    I'm not interested in buying a Tesla car at the moment. The ones currently being produced are too much money for my tastes, I don't like the "everything in the touch screen" interior, and most importantly the only Tesla store in MA is over an hour's drive away. Still, on the rare occasions when I start thinking of trading in my current Mustang in for a new Mustang GT, it occurs to me that a standard range model 3 would be about the same price, be faster, and probably have a more comfortable ride.
     
  5. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    So here we are on October 1st. Anyone privy to when the big announcement will be today?
    .
     
  6. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    TSLA stock up 14%+ as of open this morning.
     
  7. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Neither does Walmart, nor does your local auto stealership, for that matter.
    just goes to show you how little all that matters. SEC fined both Tesla & musk $20M. He loses his position (although he's still a board member & #1 stock owner) as Top Dog, yet this morning the stock shoots up.
    It's gotta be tough - shorting tbeir stock.

    .
     
    #67 hill, Oct 1, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2018
  8. tpenny67

    tpenny67 Active Member

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    At the edge of being on topic, there's a brand new Model 3 in the lot at work this morning with a temporary plate. Me thinks it belongs to a coworker who was expecting delivery in "late September", so it looks like he didn't get caught up in delivery hell.
     
  9. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Play stupid games.
    Win stupid prizes.

    I may not be a really big Musk fan (too much like a certain politician for my tastes) but I've always said that the landscape is littered with the bones of people's reputations that said...."He can't DO that!"

    No way I'm buying a Tesla.....but I have a feeling that ten years from now I'm going to be glad that people are buying them now.

    While I wait......there's no way I'm going to bet agin them with MY money!!
     
  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i don't think many mind your opinion of not much upside to the stock, it's more the inflammatory statements that you post from articles that aren't true.
     
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  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    yes, all different from tesla. i doubt anyone told walmart they were crazy and it would never work, or an auto dealership. but maybe back in the day...
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    looks like they did pretty well. congrats to elon and all tesla employees(y)
     
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  13. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Not too shabby of a guess;

    [​IMG]
    Looks like your guess was w/in ~ 10%
    Equally exciting, it looks like the curve is going hyperbolic - wich means, if it continues going this way, it indicates the waitlist club may end up clearing out in way less than 2 years !

    .
     
    #73 hill, Oct 3, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2018
  14. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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  15. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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  16. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    See the poll at the top of the page.

    Here's my 'thing'....
    Tesla has proven that they can crank out 50K-ish units a quarter, and since those units are not languishing in dealerships it's for-certain that there's demand.

    Check.

    How about making 50,000 units a quarter.......profitably and over time?

    I talk with people that I respect who assert that Musk is alternatively Edison (well-known male appendage and documented thief) or.....well, Tesla....a person who died alone and penniless in a hotel room, essentially a 'charity' case of Westinghouse, and whose mysterious writings and effects would foster wild imaginative conspiracy theories and whose personal effects would be investigated by a well-known MIT engineer with the last name of................(wait for it!)....................Trump!

    ...and they say that history is boring!.......:rolleyes:

    Anyway, shills for big petrol say that Tesla is doomed, while other "experts" say that they're the next Apple.

    Me?
    When I see two sets of people who would otherwise be considered to have at least normal brain function passionately asserting theories that are radically different, MY finely honed feces detector starts twitching.
    I'm just trying to separate the passion from the facts.

    $4,000 a share?
    Probably not.

    Solyndra?
    Probably not that either.

    I personally think that Tesla is trying a moonshot project without all of the incremental developmental steps that it took for astronauts to put six American flags on the moon.....or on a Hollywood sound set.
    I personally think also that they're making some unfortunate design choices for their rocket that might cause a financially fragile company to stumble.
    Remember.....Toyota got fined over one gigabuck for NON PROVEN unintended acceleration incidents and (1) this was an "own-goal"....something that Tesla is also quite capable of doing, and (2) Toyota essentially got out a checkbook and paid the fine.....something that Tesla is absolutely NOT capable of doing!
    All of that was over ONE MADE UP flaw.

    Now.....imagine a door that you cannot open without HAL.
    Imagine OTA updates as an open-ended liability instead of an essential, planet-saving technology.....
    Imagine battery technology that is outpacing research and development RELIABILITY testing.....
    Imagine relying on untested supply streams for your 50K per quarter production and spares needs.....

    NOW....add a Greek tragedy plot:
    (Source:The Truth Behind Electrek&#39;s Shady Alliance with Tesla - The Drive)
    ......And what a story it is. A radical high-tech startup whose brash and egomaniacal founder has a reputation for accomplishing the impossible, takes on a slow-moving, century-old auto industry, with its Big Oil allies and planet-killing cars. The story of Tesla has the all the juicy components of classical mythology: the struggle between the forces of good and evil, action and apathy, innovation and evolution. All the bright promise of the 21st Century overtaking the toxic disappointments of the 20th. It is perfectly suited to appeal to our the high-tech optimism—and to tweak all the anxieties—of our rapidly-changing world.

    I personally think that that's a lot of balls to keep in the air at one time.....but then I'm just a humble electronics technician and retired squid. I also think that a lot of people are thinking with their hearts and not their heads.

    Will Musk be Tesla or Edison when the history books are written?
    Will Tesla be GM or Ty, inc.

    ...turn the page.

    Meanwhile, if you're going to brag about quarterly EARNINGS?
    Let's see the earnings. ;)
     
  17. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Wow, that was a lot when the final two lines clarified your earlier statement ;)
    Earnings are announced during the quarterly report. Asking for them now is kind of like asking for Thanksgiving today :)
    As an investor, I do my best to be logical about TSLA, while I also recognize my desire to support the company and their goals.
    But I certainly pray Tesla doesn't end up like GM (bankrupt once with a history of burying recall issues).

    The funny thing is, back in 2010, TSLA really was a 'faith' play. As they could have been buried by any of the established manufacturers simply by someone making a Model S like car first.
    They didn't, and now, after doing what many said was impossible, a number of times, they still aren't.
    So they continue going on paying lip service (if that) to EVs. Meanwhile, Tesla slowly gobbles up market share.

    Tesla is growing, and making mistakes, and correcting those mistakes and then growing some more.
    Is it a forgone conclusion they will succeed? No, of course not. But it is a lot more likely now than it was in 2010.
     
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  18. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Concur.

    The only thing is....according to my calendar, today is 03 OCTOBER, 2018.
    This post is about Q3 (calender) earnings......and yet there are glowing posts about production.

    Got that.
    What about Q3 earnings???

    Tesla Refuses To Reaffirm Q3 Profitability And Free Cash Flow - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
     
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    It typically takes four weeks to get the Q3 financials out. We can make informed guesses using Q2 metrics for the Model S/X. But the real numbers won't be known until November 1.

    Unknown are the timing of the board changes along with duties and responsibilities. For example, will the board and/or chairman issue the financials or still the CEO, Elon. Given Elon's past love performance with earnings calls, it may be best to let the Chairman take the heat.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    patience, grasshopper