Range Wars?

I don't think we will see any lasting range wars, if any, taking place.

• Prices may be dropping, but it will still cost more to put in more battery cells. Fence sitters might use the federal tax credits to boost range as a selling point over those plug in leaders that have used them up, but promoting a lower net price is more likely.
  
• Space for the pack and cooling systems will remain a limiting factor. A 500 mile electric SUV won't sell if there isn't plenty of space to bring all your stuff on that long trip.
• A large battery won't make charging (much) faster. The fastest rate for 300 miles on a Tesla at home is around 10 hours, half that if you dedicate 80 amps of your incoming electricity to charging the one car. 170 miles in about 30 min is what the fastest Supercharger can supply.
• The Ioniq BEV will be arriving around the same time as the Bolt. With about 110 miles of range, and it should be noticeably undercutting the Bolt's price, BEV buyers will give more thought to how much range they actually need.

 

i think we'll see more and more charging locations, meeting higher and higher ranges, until most people are satisfied. it won't happen overnight though.

 

Battery packs above 200 miles or so are mostly about road trip drivability rather than local commuter daily driving.

Bigger batteries allow more flexibility about when and where to charge on longer drives. Bigger batteries are also important for charging speed. That's why Tesla's can charge at over 100 kW power. The faster you can charge the better the convenience for long distance driving. Today's Tesla supercharging design is maxed out at near 120 kW when charging a 100 kWh pack that gets 300 miles of range. In the next several years we will start to see cars with 125 kWh 400 mile packs and we will start to see charging stations that use twice the voltage in order to charge even faster while not increasing the current (which needs fatter cabling and generates more heat).

Once you reach the point where recharging takes no longer than someone needs for going to the bathroom and getting a snack then there is little need to go faster and bigger. Ironically, this crossover point roughly coincides with gas tank range given today's battery technology limits on charging rates.

Bottom line, for multiple reasons I see battery sizes converging on 300-400 miles of range for cars meant for longer distance drivability.

 

Yes, but you probably want to fully charge at home before heading on that trip.

A bigger battery allows more electricity to be stored during fast charging before the rate has to be ramped off for pack protection. I used the caveat "much" because this doesn't apply to home or work charging, where over 90% of charging is done.

The OP's contention is that we are going to see an EV range war between the manufacturers, like we've seen in horsepower, truck tow ratings, hybrid EV speed, etc. Between costs and technical capability, such a war won't be between the 238 mile Bolt and a 300 mile Tesla; the cost of the latter will exclude many buyers of the former, but be expressed as Nissan releasing a 242 mile Leaf for around the price of the Bolt. As you point out, ranges above 200 miles is about long trips. If these BEVs are relying on a disjointed fast charge infrastructure for long trips, then many won't be buying them for that reason.

The focus on higher horsepower for marketing did have negatives in terms of fuel efficiency. The OP appears to think a range war could lead to such negatives for BEVs. Perhaps making 100 mile BEVs unmarketable. We'll see manufacturers use a slightly higher range to one up the competitor in marketing. We aren't talking about the current crop of sub-100 mile range BEVs though; where a few more miles range can mean the difference on whether a model will work for a buyer or not. Over 200 miles, a few more miles won't be a critical positive for most buyers. More comfortable seats or space for their growing kids will be equal running to 5 more miles over the car with 240 miles of range.

BEVs in the 100 to 200 mile range won't disappear because the 200+ mile ones are going farther and farther. Cost drops that make the biggest packs possible in an affordable car will lower the price of these shorter range ones further. They may disappear if the price difference drops to a couple thousand, but that is longer term than what any range war will last.

The BEV makers will have their marketing war by pushing the range up a little at a time, but this is a good thing. Eventually they'll hit that 300 mile mark doing so in a car affordable to a majority. Then the push for fast DC charging infrastructure from the public will be harder, so they can actually make use of the range.

BEVs will hit that 300-400 range and settle there, since that will work for a large majority of the population. BEVs with ranges of half that will still sell since many don't need a car for long road trips, and they'll be cheaper than the long range ones. PHEVs, with ICE or fuel cell, will be available for the cases in which a DC fast charge system isn't available or practical.

 

After driving 700 miles to and from Oklahoma over the Labor Day weekend, I am not convienced a larger battery would have made a difference because of the absence of high-speed, DC charging infrastructure. As it was, it required 10 refueling stops to make the trip:

• Level 2 - Level 2 chargers but at 3 hours to recharge the battery this is way too long. That would have been 10*3 = 30 hours just in charging to make one direction of the trip. Double that to 60 hrs for the weekend.
• Tesla HPWC (NEMA 14-50) - still no joy because the built-in 7.2 kW charger of the i3 ... same as a Level 2 charger ... 3 hours
• CHAdeMO - one in Huntsville and a second at Decatur, 35 miles away, and now adapter for the CCS of the i3

The only way that might work would be if I find a split-phase, DC charger, that could provide enough energy from the single phase Level 2 / Tesla HPWC to get a fast charge. Given the 18.7 kWh battery, the closest I've found is a 12 kW DC charger from eMotorWerks. They have some 25 kW units but they require 3-phase. But even the 12 kW DC charger is no guarantee:

• 12 kW = 240 VAC * 50 A and the 50 A service is NOT guaranteed.
• 12 kW = 208 VAC * 58 A " "
• 18.7 kWh / 12 kW = 1 hr 35 min (not counting taper) still too slow

One approach that might work would be two, 12 kW power supplies that are able to draw power from two Tesla HPWC (assuming they have independent current capabilities of at least 58 A.) That would bring the charge time down to a more usable, 45 minutes.)

As attractive as a longer range battery is, it also lengthens the charger time and/or increases power required to effect a charge. So I'm looking at a different approach.

Bob Wilson

 

All good points. I have nothing to contribute to that aspect of the discussion.

OTOH, I suspect that Toyota is going to find they put their money on the "loosing horse." I do not expect to see hydrogen fueled vehicle come across the finish line first ..... at least not in my lifetime. Just the ability to plug-in at home, and eventually at work will always trump having to go to a hydrogen station (even if there is a network across the USA). It will remain to be seen, but Hyundai, I believe, has a winning approach with all three variations (hybrid, plug-in and electric) available in one model.

On a side note .... I do not share all the excitement about the Bolt. First, it looks like a roller-skate, and more damning .... it is manufactured by GM. My children own GM products ..... my daughter dumped her Pontiac after several years of very expensive repairs. My son owns a GMC .... he just spent $3800 on repairs. I have owned Toyota products most of my life .... and have yet to spend a dime on anything but tires, oil and preventive maintenance (flushing the transmission, alignment and such).

 

The Bolt will come out nationwide. The enhanced CAFE value of a BEV will help offset sales of thirstier cars and trucks. This was the initial plan for the Spark EV, but being foreign assembled, it usefulness for such was limited, and GM left it in compliance car status.

I expect the rollout will follow that of the latest Volt, going to California and other CARB states first, where there are more incentives for buyers and GM. So most of the Midwest will be the last in the country to see them.

 

Old news but

500 Mile Electric Cars? New Lithium-Air Tech Has Potential

Of course there are still issues with cooling. The 2020's are poised to be the decade of the electric car and who knows it might also give stagnant economies (Basically the entire west, and now China) a well needed boost too

 

It seems that the only benefit really of hydrogen is that you can just fill up and go, just like a normal car. Whether that's going to be a sufficient enough reason to generate sales, well the public will decide really. I suspect it won't take off, at least not until hydro production is as cheap as the EV cars in terms of charging

One reason for the 65MpgE figure is down to the cost of hydrogen - it costs basically the same as petrol right now I think

Also tbh hydro just isn't as efficient as EV in the first place. The Mirai looks cool however. Nicer than any mainstream electric car imo