RAV4 Hybrid/Plug-in Math in Virginia/Wash DC

Virginia has no state plug-in incentives yet, but as a newly Blue state, that is on the agenda. However, we have a to-die-for annual local car property tax that is out-of-this-world. So I was recently analyzing my decision math to go with the Hybrid RAV4:

Here is a quick estimated comparison, Virginia (Alexandria) vs. Wash DC.
Vehicle: Toyota RAV4 Prime Plug-in Hybrid
Cost: $40,000

Cost in Wash DC:
$40,000 Car
$ 2,400 Sales Tax
– 7,500 Federal Subsidy (Tax credit)
– 2,400 DC subsidy (tax free)
$32,500 Final cost in DC RAV4 Prime (Plug-in)

Cost in NoVA: (Northern Virginia, Alexandria - 5.3% annual car tax with some relief)
$40,000 Car
$ 8,000 Sales + Annual Car Tax (10 years estimate)
– 7,500 Federal Subsidy (Tax credit)
– 0 Va. subsidy
$40,500 Final cost in NoVA RAV4 Prime (Plug-in)

So my March 2020 Virginia choice was the non-plug hybrid RAV4:
$28,000 Hybrid RAV4 SE
+ $4000 Car Taxes (10-yrs estimate)
$32,000 Total for Hybrid in Va.

Note: Wash DC is the only "state" with hybrid incentive, sales tax free, if they are over 40 MPG City...so I assume RAV4 Hybrid qualifies for that. If so, the hybrid RAV4 would be $28k in Wash DC.

If Virginia adds a new big plug-in vehicle incentive, maybe I made the wrong decision, but it would have to be a Colorado-sized incentive..

As far as the gasser RAV4 for say $26k, the hybrid has better MPG at 40, but it will still be hard for me to make up the hybrid cost+car tax premium, but I should break even, or better, if gasoline prices go up. The DC hybrid owner would see the Hybrid cost benefit over the gasser due to the DC hybrid tax break.

DC's incentive system makes sense to me.