Featured Reasons behind the slowness of EVs adoption in US

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by KrPtNk, Mar 11, 2019.

  1. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    I would guess the average buyer of new vehicles is probably around 3 or 4 years from their next purchase. Even if half of those people walk the talk we could see an incredible increase in plug-ins over the next 5-10 years.
     
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  2. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    VW making big "in 10 years" boasts - reminiscent of the hydrogen Lobby's claims - saying they'll have 22 million plugins on the road by then.
    Volkswagen Plans 22 Million Electric Cars In 10 Years
    Doubt it - but "if"? ..... yea, that'd definately push the plugins above 2%.
    Then again - they used to say their diesels were as clean as sunshine & childrenn's laughter.
    .
     
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  3. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    Yeah, that'd be me. Just finished a 4 day 1100 mile trip and never left Texas. First fuel stop was at a 96 liquid fuel supercharger station (yes ninety-six).
    IMG_9732.JPG

    My 7 gallon Clarity took about 90 secs to "quick charge" 300 miles of range. Getting about Gen2 Prius hwy mileage on 75mph interstate droning.

    IMG_7650.JPG

    I love the money fires! :ROFLMAO:

     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    I think 5-10 years is a reasonable guess to get to 10-15% ev’s
     
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  5. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Except the first VW on the BEV platform will be available to buy in Europe by the end of the year, with another three I.D. models out by 2022, plus then there are the Audi and Skoda plug ins.

    I bet VW will sell more of their ID hatchback in Europe, over one full year, than the total number of Mirai's sold globally.
     
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  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    But those are just statements from vdub, doesn’t mean it’s actually going to happen
     
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  7. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Exactly. It was 15% in 2016, then 20% in 2018. As people see their neighbors with the cars the pit of fear goes away ;-) A car is a much higher ticket item than a smart phone, and lives 11 years versus 2, so I would expect adoption to be at least 5x slower than smart phones. We are still in the higher cost phase that went from tube tvs to flat screen tvs. The first flat screen computer monitor was plasma, expensive, and invented in 1964 at the UofI where mosaic the start of web browsers also started. 33 years later sharp and sony produced and sold the first large flat screen tv. 42" for $15K. It took until 2006 to get lcds to get cost down to the levels of plasmas in 42" tvs. By 2009 LCD flat screen tv technology dominated. I'm sure even in 1970 people wanted flat screens but they were way too expensive. I believe we are between that 1997 (tesla model S) and 2006 (first affordable flat screen lcds) My guess is 2025 in the US and china are where Plug-ins start to get over 10% market share (they are above it in small markets now, but those are small, china and US are the biggest light vehicle markets). In 2018 plug-in sales were 2.1% of light vehicle sales up from 0.6% 5 years earlier (first full year of model S and prius phv).

    Is the glass half full or half empty. It is estimated that the 62 kwh pack in the model 3 mid range costs around $10K, but it should be around $6K in 2025. The model 3 is quite aerodynamic so it gets 264 miles epa range. I would expect a rav4 sized SUV based on the model 3 mid range to get over 210 miles epa range. AWD motors, controllers, gearing, and charger probably add about $8K making the power train cost about $14K for about V6 power. The X was poorly designed, but I would expect tesla model Y or something else to be able to compete in this large segment by 2025. If people actually see their neighbor has one and they ride in it, they will want it.

    Similarly I would expect a 10KW+ phev SUV and Pick up truck to start really moving plug-ins. Lots of market there. The pacifica outlander are the first interation, but I expect in 6 years we will get better models.
     
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  8. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    They are already building factories for these cars.
    With Chattanooga, VW Will Have 8 Plants For EVs Based On MEB
    Ground broke on the Anting plant back in October. It will only make MEB based EVs there, with an output of 300k per year.
    Volkswagen Commences Construction Of EV-Only Factory In China | Carscoops
    They are starting the development of a Li-ion recycling plant.
    Volkswagen Plans to Develop EV Battery Recycling Plant | INN
    And are putting more money into Electrify America.
    Volkswagen to spend $300 million more on electric vehicle network, eyeing spring building start for Chattanooga plant | Times Free Press
     
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    can't make what you can't sell. time will tell. i'll be impressed if they accomplish anything significant in a reasonable amount of time, without government intervention
     
  10. Rmay635703

    Rmay635703 Senior Member

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  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i wonder how those lines would look if they sold them there, but charged cali prices
     
  12. Rmay635703

    Rmay635703 Senior Member

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    Wisconsinites are extremely cheap and hate taxes.

    If it made the car cheaper and didn’t increase annual registration costs on used cars ;)
     
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  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Perhaps by 2020, 30% of Americans polled will say they would consider an ev in their next purchase
     
  14. Bluegrassman

    Bluegrassman Active Member

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    I would love to have a pure EV. The problem for me is it’s fairly common for me to make 300-400 mile round trips on any given day and charging options are extremely limited. And of course even when charging is available, i need to be able to charge quick and get back on the road. That tech just doesn’t exist yet. As soon as long range, fast charging EVs are a reality I’ll be all in! Until then I’ll remain content with our family’s fleet of Prii and routinely drivimg 500+ miles between fill-ups.
     
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  15. Lightning Racer

    Lightning Racer Active Member

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    I've never been there, but my favorite car youtubers, Mighty Car Mods, are Australians. Here's the trailer for a series they did on crossing Australia on borrowed cars that they did 5 years ago (all episodes are on youtube).

     
  16. kens97uber171

    kens97uber171 Active Member

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    When I price and EV that would work for me. 50k miles per year. Mostly out on the road.. the $$$ does not work out.
    I would NEED a Tesla Long range model and use supercharger almost exclusively.. and even that is a bit under what I need.
    When I compared my cost per mile in my current Prius. $0.07/mile
    Vs a Model3 LR at $0.04/mile.
    My break even point is over 8 years.. closer to 13 depending on how you option up the Tesla.
    That's not a good financial choice.. for me.
    If I drove less it's an even worse proposal.
    Now.. an EV that cost $25k and has a decent National charging network, or if my circumstances change and I use it more in my home city.. then things start to work out.
    People will switch when it is benefits there wallets... And there lifestyle.

    Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.
     
  17. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    What poll was it? How people were questioned? What was the question? Did those being asked understand what an EV could be? Were these people who had access to a plug? And what the heck does "consider" actually mean? For that matter, when was the poll taken?

    That type of vague statement is exactly where "Know your audience" came from. It originates with a small sampling and a meritless claim, just like that. Volt enthusiasts spread such rhetoric to the point of creating their own "fake news" source, way back before the term had been coined. I got mocked for pointing out the power of what turned out to be propaganda. Those observations shouldn't have been so callously dismissed. Now, it's a grim reality with widespread collateral damage.

    It's the face-value acceptance of comment without detail that feeds group-think. People endorse the greenwash simply by passing it along without question. Just look at the outcome of Volt. Expectations were set that were based on want, not need. That fundamental disconnect confused the market and prevented progress forward. It's a trap that's easy to fall into, started by spreading a vague statement. Now, we wonder the reasons why there's a slowness to adopt EV here.




     
    #57 john1701a, Mar 15, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019
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  18. vvillovv

    vvillovv Active Member

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    Forgetting that the concept of global warming is off to a slow start, my first thought this morning was that EV is still
    a new choice for most.

    Also forgetting that EV were around at the turn of the last two centuries, it begs to remember how
    history portrays the War of the currents and the Tesla Edison dynamic, which is a century before my time.
    War of the currents - Wikipedia

    Is it simply that most people are afraid of driving an EV?
    how much of a role does FUD Fear, uncertainty and doubt - Wikipedia play in most of our lives?

    The dynamics are far from simple, cost and convenience vs future vision of the species.

    ?

    Many mechanics complained how difficult is was to keep up when electronic ignition replaced the simpler less efficient points and condensers

    How many independent automotive mechanics do you know that are excited about working on cars with electric motors in them?.
     
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  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    I
    It’s only vague because you aren’t following the thread, and YOU MISQUOTED ME :rolleyes:
     
    #59 bisco, Mar 15, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019
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  20. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The other One Percenter.....

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    Reasons behind the slowness of EVs adoption in US
    I do not understand why anyone thinks that EV adoption is SLOW!

    The reason that everyone isn't pushing their gas cars into the yard and running out to buy a new electric car RIGHT NOW is fairly complex, but it's mostly from cost, reliability, and range and charge anxiety.
    These are things that most present EV and PHEV drivers don't accept easily because of the high percentage of one-percenters in their cohort and their lack of understanding about how most of the rest of the 99-percentters think.

    Speaking as one of those, I can report:

    1. Gas cars still work.
    They're reliable, cheap to fuel (gas is still less than $2.50 in most places) MUCH cheaper to buy, and if you already have one it's probably fairly reliable. People driving less-than-reliable cars in 2019 are not very good candidates to shell out $40,000+ for a new 'lectric car.
    People do not usually buy new cars until they NEED to, and a combination of industry wide reliability and the fact that my neighbor's blind cat can qualify for a new car loan means that there are many cars out there in need of buyers.
    Almost all of them are not BEVs.

    2. Range Anxiety is real.
    Otherwise every single car add and review that you see for one would not brag about their EPA range ratings - OR try to gloss over this issue with 0-60 times that are usually achieved during a carrier catapult launch.
    None
    of my gassers even HAVE rage estimates, because for all practical purposes they're presumed to be transcontinental.
    If I get into my 2009 pickemuptruck, right now, and point the nose anywhere in the US, I need not even think about fueling it, because even in the most remote areas of the US there are gas stations, and the rate at which they still building new gas stations is still accelerating.

    3. Fueling time anxiety is real.
    Otherwise? ICE'd would be something that only happens with water, and EVangelsits would not be competing with bicyclists for being the most hated groups of people by legislative staffers, and LEO dispatchers stuck with answering their phone calls.
    If you do not own your own home charging is an issue, and 3-4 in 10 people don't.
    There is good news here though because a greater percentage of those in flyover country own their own homes.

    4. EVs are expensive!
    You can buy a brand-new gasser for less than $16,000.
    You CAN'T buy a new BEV for less than about double that.
    You can torque the numbers enough to alter the rotation of the Earth, but in 2019 EVs are still more expensive.

    5. EV marketing SUCKS, and most of their car designs are somewhat....ah....."unique".
    OK.
    That's kinda subjective, but EVs are presently being marketed to urbanites, and edgy hispters or wanna-bes.
    The tone seems to be that hayseeds don't have one because they're ignorant, and most of their designs are somewhat.....ah.....controversial.
    That's why Nissan had to perform EMERGENCY cosmetic surgery on the Leaf.
    Even the Tesla looks kinda interesting nose-on.
    Once you pick all of the low-hanging fruit there will be a diminution of the adoption rates until platforms are engineered and marketed for those who live in less densely populated areas, and have more mainstream tastes.
    Also.....for the most part, EVs are CARS.
    Most Americans don't drive cars.

    6. The human animal is change averse.
    Obvious.
     
    #60 ETC(SS), Mar 15, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019
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