Featured Reasons behind the slowness of EVs adoption in US

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by KrPtNk, Mar 11, 2019.

  1. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    Another idiot who doesn't get it.

    "For most people in the United States, the fully electric cars of today fit range needs by a long shot. The average person commutes well under 10 miles to work–even if that commute takes an average of 52 minutes a day. Sexton argues that this creates a difference between our perceived needs and our real needs."

    It's not about the commute! My Prime has enough range for my commute.

    It's about going on an out-of-town trip, especially one that isn't on a major highway. In the first two years I owned my Prime, I visited 10 states (Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, California, Arizona, and New Mexico). Each of those trips had at least one leg that was over 300 miles between Tesla Supercharger stations, and two of them were over 600 miles.

    Even several of my in-state trips wouldn't have worked in a 325 mile range EV. One was in -5°F to -12°F weather, in the mountains, on snow-packed roads. Together, those effects would likely have reduced EV range by more than 50%, and it was 210 miles round-trip. Another simply didn't leave time to charge anywhere without missing the event we were going to. And, no, we couldn't leave earlier because the start of the trip was when the kids got out of school. We literally picked them up from school and left, and still got there about 10 minutes late. A 30 minute charge stop would mean we would have missed it entirely.

    We need 450 mile range cars for the same price as we pay for conventional cars now, and we need 250kW (or more) charge rates, available almost everywhere.

    And that's another problem. Supercharger stations are located in mostly-useless places. Most of our stops are at rest-areas or restaurants and most Superchargers are at neither one. I've actually only found one in a place I'd actually use it - Hays Kansas - though the one in Lusk, WY isn't too bad being only a couple of blocks from where I'd want to stop. The rest are miles from where I'd actually want to stop, and I've looked at most of them from California to Ohio while on our trips (the Ohio trip wasn't in the Prime which is why I didn't mention all those midwest states above).

    I hate the term "range anxiety". It's not a psychological problem, it's a real problem in the real world. It's just "range" or "lack of range". No one would buy a conventional car with 225 or 300 miles of range, and there's a far superior fueling infrastructure for those cars.

    So what we have is cars with way too much range for the typical commute that are carrying an extra thousand pounds of batteries around with them all the time, yet have too little range for an out-of-town trip that isn't carefully constrained to the existing charging infrastructure.
     
  2. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Agree with most points above, but not this one. Yes, BEVs are significantly more expensive (in general), but there are many BEVs that can be had for much less than 2x $16k.

    It's true that if one has no tax liability, one gets no federal tax credit. But there are new BEVs that can be had for less than $20k in many markets after manufacturer and dealer discounts + fed tax credit + state tax rebate + utility rebates.
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    I think most of the media ‘gets it’, but it’s their job to stir the pot and get people talking
     
  4. Rmay635703

    Rmay635703 Senior Member

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    The reasons are more simplistic than you think.

    1. The ratio of new car sales to used...
    California is one of the few areas that on occasion buys more new cars than used and is a net exporter of used cars
    Inversely other areas sell very very few new cars compared to used and are net importers of used cars.

    2. Age of the average car and the distribution. In my local area there are times that most cars I see are from 1985 and earlier, until I moved here I had never seen so many K cars and Chevy Citations. (And i was alive in the 80’s). Inversely to the south it’s all Buick lesabers.

    Given that some areas keep or buy cars that are very old and a new car is relatively rare it isn’t odd that those areas are glacial in getting a newer car like an EV because the locals simply don’t buy anything newer than 2005.

    You will note a correlation between average vehicle age and EV adoption.
     
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  5. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Controversy, real or manufactured, buys ratings. Ratings bring in advertising $$$.

    Truth and accuracy, unfortunately do not produce the same effect.
     
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  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    If I were polled, I would say that i would consider an ev in my next purchase, but I might not actually buy one, depending on many variables
     
  7. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The other One Percenter.....

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    Polls are for dancers.

    Otherwise?
    A much different type of witch-hunt would be happening in DC right about now....
     
  8. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Your driving use is in small percentile of the population. There may never be a BEV that works for that group. Which is okay. The positive impacts BEVs can have on society don't need everyone to drive one in order to occur, and the selection of PHEVs will also be improving. BEVs and electrified rails are also being field tested, so a BEV might work for even the small percentile groups in the future.

    Operating costs aren't the only criteria to goes into the car buying decision; those in which it is important buy used. Plug ins have tangible benefits besides operating costs, which is why the segment is gaining market share faster than hybrids did.

    BEVs were the leader back then. Cadillac had to add an electric motor and battery to the ICE car before that changed.

    Mechanics might be worried about a reduced work load with EV drive trains, but other subsystems on the car won't be changing.

    If a fully enclosed two seater trike is all the car you need; the Solo starts under $16k. About 50 have already been sold and delivered, making it a bigger success than the Elio.
     
  9. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Also a new 2019 40 kWh Nissan Leaf with trim level S = MSRP $29,990

    Someone living in my town in CA, for example, with $7.5k federal tax liability would get:

    $29,990 MSRP
    -$1000 minimum manufacturer discount
    -additional dealer discounts
    -$7,500 federal tax credit
    -$2,500 state rebate
    -$800 PG&E utility rebate
    =$18,190 or less

    Lowest trim Chevy Bolts (more range) can be had in a similar fashion for low $20ks.
     
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  10. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    I looked for a bare bone no option level S LEAF to qualify for the advertised Nissan's fantastic 3 year lease deal last year. Guess what, there were none in inventory within 2,000 miles. And nationwide, there were only a few that would qualify for the lease deal as advertised.
     
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  11. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Yes, there are often gimmicks involved.

    Over at the main Leaf forum (mynissanleaf.com) someone posted this on 2/27/2019:

    Leased a leaf today in bay area, ca. Needed one for hov lane commute in a month.

    Leaf S with QC. No weather package.

    $10550 all in for 36 months and 10000 miles/year. Could have bargained lower, but just last week, I was struggling at $12k, so the sudden drop in prices this week surprised me.

    Vpp and loyalty. $5300 driveoff and $139+tax per month.


    Leaf Price / Discount discussion thread - Page 79 - My Nissan Leaf Forum
     
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  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    If I’m looking at Camry, bolt and leaf all in the same price range, and nothing else matters to me, it’s Camry all day long
     
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  13. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    I have to agree with @bisco here. Bolt, I have never seen one, so I don't know, but when I test drove Leaf (top model) a few month ago for the first time, I was very disappointed of the ride, comfort, and quality of the built of the car. On that day I test drove both Clarity and Leaf and compared them side by side, both are with price tag similar in upper $30K MSRP. Clarity was clear winner for me.
     
    #73 Salamander_King, Mar 15, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Unfortunately, msrp is not a good comparison.
    Depending on the economy, geography and other factors, actual sales prices can be all over the board.
    But I never buy a car that way, I narrow down to one model based on wants, needs and budget, then make the best deal I can.
    Currently, there are no bevs that meet all three of my requirements
     
  15. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    Yap, MSRP is not a good comparison, but in this case both LEAF and Clarity had similar MSRP and similar final price. Only thing was that neither of them were satisfactory in fulfilling my needs. In the end, people buy a car based on "wants, needs and budget" as you say, and for most people BEV does not satisfy all of those requirements.
     
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  16. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The other One Percenter.....

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    MSRP is like EPA ratings.

    It's simply a benchmark that, in both cases, doesn't really hold up real-world.

    The Camary - Bolt - leaf comment that you made earlier tells everybody everything that they need to know about BEVs in 2019.

    I personally think that they are making lightning-quick penetration into the POV market, but it's going to be decades before ICE<BEV for the same reason that it took decades for ships to switch from sail to steam.....people to stop burning whale oil......or using equine transportation.

    Speaking of whales...
    It's funny.
    I was reading a history book yesterday where some eco-geeks were complaining about US Navy sailors targeting whales during gunnery practice.
    Yeah.
    They had ecovists back then too.
    Anyway, one of the crustier Admirals actually issued a swift order to cease this activity immediately (I think it was Turner) NOT because of his concern over our oppressed marine mammals, but because of his concern that such activity was wasteful to war materials......and by this he was not worried about the gun projectiles.

    The point is.....it is often overlooked that people did not stop using whales for lighting and lubrication because they ran out of whales, but rather because newer technology came along that was better!

    Good news if you're a fan of whales.
    Not-so-great news if you're not a fan of petroleum, which WAS that better tech.
    Beware the law of unintended consequences!

    Or?
    As we 99-percenters might put it.....
    Murphy can really be a bitch sometimes!

    :eek:
     
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  17. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Money is important but is only one factor, and non-limiting in this regard for many of the 99-percenters. The median new vehicle price is substantial and many of these ICE vehicles are bought by 99-percenters.

    Not a 1-percenter here by income or wealth. But weaning off fossil fuels is a priority want for us, so we’re early adopters.

    Most of the top 25%-ers in the majority 2+ vehicle households in the US can comfortably afford at least one new or used BEV or PHEV right now - and for less than the median new vehicle price.

    It’s a matter of wants and willingness to give up somethings or other things. Different folks, different priorities.

    Some will say, but my driving patterns can’t work with....but these exceptions don’t disprove that it’s still very feasible for a huge and growing swath of others.
     
  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Requirements are individual and have to be weighed against the local and remote resources. Like the fable of the fox and stork deciding to eat together, what works for one is useless for another.

    REDUNDANT VEHICLES - due to age and fixed retirement income, we must always have a ready vehicle for medical, shopping, and errands. So we have both a BMW i3-REx, my primary car, and a backup, Prius Prime. But the Prime remains barely used.

    TRAVEL TO FAMILY HOMESTEAD - we have blood kin living in Stillwater OK and Coffeyville KS. My brothers live in Connecticut, two in Arizona, and one in Washington State. We also have an Aunt living in Los Angeles and cousins on the west coast. All of them are accessible via the existing SuperCharger network augmented by NEMA 14-50s found in the gaps. The BMW i3-REx has been invaluable to learning how to drive long distances on electric, what works and doesn't (Plugshare.com is your friend.)

    CURIOSITY - like walking on a frozen over pond, can I deal with the strengths and weaknesses of a pure EV? It is a challenge I am willing and able to take.

    LOW OPERATIONAL COST - between the BMW i3-REx and the Prius Prime, we have found EV miles are half the cost of gas miles. Again, limited retirement income means we do not want to forgo a trip because we can't afford the miles or gasoline become unaffordable. Long distance, fast DC chargers can be expensive, 4x the cost of gas, but we've figured out some alternatives.

    DRIVER ASSISTANCE - both the 2014 "MagicEye" in the BMW and 2017 TSS-P in the Toyota have demonstrated excellent performance in reducing driver load and improving safety. We have great expectations for AutoPilot that adds lane keeping as well as 360 degree and static monitoring.​

    Living in North Alabama, our exposure to cold limiting the EV range is rare. We also know how to use pre-conditioning to reduce the range effects to air density and tire stiffness.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  19. markabele

    markabele Senior Member

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    Love this statement. I feel the same way about the two Leafs we've owned. Between the extra range and Superchargers range anxiety won't exist.
     
  20. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    First let me validate your experience, then unfortunately say you don't get it.

    When most of us when we say plug-in cars or even electric vehicles we mean bevs and phevs, and even see a day when phevs are flex fuel and can use things like bio methanol. Because your prime seems to work for you, and that is a plug-in, I say you already fit that group where not only plug-ins work but you have gone from saying its desirable to actually owning one.

    Now of course there are groups where this is not true. Many don't have a place to plug-in, or don't like the idea of pluging in. IMHO in the US that may be around 60% for at least the next 15 years until prices and infrastructure changes. Then the question is how to go from around 2% in 2018 (2.1% US, 1.9% world wide) to 40% potential in 2035 and if we will get there. My guess is it will be around half or 20%, which likely means VMT world wide can probably increase 10% and liquid fuel consumption drop 10%.

    My model 3 charge rate on superchargers has gone from 170 miles in 30 minutes, to 210 miles in 20 minutes because of software changes when v3 superchargers are rolled out. That is fast enough for me. It isn't for you, and hence a phev is a better choice. Pick up truck and SUV plug-ins likely won't be cost competitive with features people want for 4 years, but then those segments can grow.

    v3 tesla superchargers will charge a model 3 and soon a model Y at 250 KW, but other car companies need to buy into that network or help the governments build another one. I don't think a 450 mile SUV needs to cost the same as a rav4 hybrid at all, most will never use that. For an off road SUV that needs to go far, perhaps a 10 KWh phev is a better choice. The model Y is really a tall hatchback but the 300 mile range one due in 20 months costs $48K (including destination + $3K for autopilot + tt&l). Its not for the masses but I'm sure they will sell hudreds of thousands a year.
     
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