SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Diagnosed cases are now ~6000 with ~60 fatalities if my reading is accurate.

    Coronavirus is a large group including 'common colds' with many residing in other animals. This one jumped to humans in 2019 December in Wuhan China. Likely in a 'wet market' (common here but readers may not have had the experience). Possibly from snakes or bats.

    It is being compared to 2003 SARS virus (another corona) which in total infected ~8000 and killed ~80 before human-transmission chain was ended in 2004. We might make very early comparisons that 2019-nCoV is more transmissible but less lethal. But they would be very early comparisons.

    My understanding of SARS is that it had only a few hours of latency (during which pre-symptomatic infected individuals can transfer virus by aerosol and direct contact), but this virus may have ~10 days of latency. In a globally jet-travel-connected world, that would stand as a large distinction.

    It has been suggested that Wuhan was slow to recognize this risk. One media report says Wuhan mayor says 5 million people left that city before the gates were closed. Sucks to be him...

    Context: now is Spring Festival in China, largest annual migration on Earth. Context: most of that migration is domestic. Most developing viral infections will will be within China. Global health care will be faced with leakage and in many countries they are well up to the task.

    In a broader view, any virus that jumps host species has a window to evolve different patterns of infectivity and lethality. Jump to humans and that window includes anti-bacterially medicated hosts, and other viral infections in hosts that may mix DNA. It would only improbably be by such stirring that 2019-nCoV could become that whopper that clickbaits suggest it already is.

    Might become. Other recent viral contestants have not.

    Media difficulties: I have seen images of stacked corpses and I doubt their veracity. All might see images of empty streets in Chinese cities, and those are realistic. As they would be any year because Spring Festival is when almost everything shuts down.

    ==
    We all should manage contact hygiene as we ought to be doing anyway. In US for example where seasonal influenza has taken its typical ~8000. Beyond that we can observe how well this new player makes its species jump.
     
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    5 casrs in u.s. so far. i now wish i wasn't in the vacation capital of the world, and a huge chinesefavorite.
     
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  3. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    We just changed our Chinese vacation in February to visit my brother in Shanghai ;).

    Now we're headed to Spain instead:).

    Stay safe near Mickey's fun land(y).
     
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  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    By all accounts Spain is superb in February. Barcelona Carnival!
     
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  5. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona are where we are headed:).

    It should be a great time(y).
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Que les vaya bien! I have no knowledge of your Spanish knowledge but grab just a few from internet and you'll be mejor de todos.
     
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  7. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    It was the language I chose to study in high school, then being in the melting pot of california it helps with remembering;).

    We're better setup than when we went to Portugal many years ago. When in the back country of the Douro River region, we didn't know enough Portuguese to order dinner:cool:.

    Luckily the owners knew enough French that we could order. My wife studied French and still had some abilities left:love:.

    She's a keeper(y).
     
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Yes she is.

    I learned Spanish in CA first as well. You will enjoy exploring how MexSpanish has diverged from the mother tongue. Many other things tambien.
     
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  9. George W

    George W Active Member

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    I thought the common cold was a rhinovirus
     
  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    It and Coronavirus are the two main virus groups that cause the 'common cold'. There are others.
    According to WebMD, 20% to 30% of colds in adults have unknown causes
     
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    they're starting to work on a vaccine. maybe we'll get one for the common cold eventually
     
  12. George W

    George W Active Member

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    Every time I go to the VA for a cold, they always specify rhino.
     
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i never go to the doc for a cold, just wait it out. what do they do for you?
     
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  14. George W

    George W Active Member

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    Usually med for pain. I actually have service-connected rating for my sinuses.
     
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  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    News of today is (US) CDC put all of China under level 3 (reconsider travel) and Hubei Province under level 4 (do not travel). Death toll now ~80

    My top posted 6000 cases seems to include 3000 suspected rather than confirmed. That will probably be a very fluid number in the next few days
     
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Four consulates in Wuhan (US, France, S Korea, UK). US will have an evacuation flight tomorrow (Wednesday China time). Those others are planing similar I understand.

    Several other countries without Consular facilities in Wuhan are working on flights to evacuate their nations:

    Countries evaluate evacuation of citizens in virus epicenter

    In all cases one would expect medical staff on flights and some degree of confinement after arriving back home.

    ==
    CNN live posting on this matter says Wuhan province is having shortage of biohazard (bunny) suits. That their current need is 100,000 suits per day!

    That's a lot of polyethylene :eek:
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Total reported fatalities now stand at 106, with >4500 cases confirmed. The later number will remain uncertain for a while.

    US evacuation flight has departed but I don't know its flight schedule. They will refuel in Anchorage with Ontario California destination. No info on other countries' evac flights.

    I learn that several foreign auto manufacturers have plants in Wuhan and this contributes to the number of non-nationals there.

    A few (3?) companies are working on specific vaccine but that will require weeks to months. The situation then cannot be predicted, but general consensus seems to be that there has been no (or very little) person-to person infection outside of China.

    ==
    Streets in Kunming are very empty but this is ~normal for the Spring Festival holiday week. Schools across China may delay reopening after. Last night a call went around to all in 'my shop' to report their health status and location. That is novel and presumably followed a government directive. Those who want to follow action in Kunming and Yunnan Province can go where we lao weis go:

    Live: Coronavirus updates for Yunnan and Kunming - GoKunming

    ==
    I earlier compared this to SARS. To do the same for MERS, the other recently notable zoonotic (jumped to humans) coronavirus. MERS is still rattling around, but apparently only in camel places. There were ~2500 total reported infections as of 2019 November. MERS stands out for its fatality rate >30%. Our topic here is <3% at present.
     
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    isn't it 'just' the flu?
     
  19. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    No, most definitely not.
    If you are referring to the new article by a doctor trying to put this in perspective, that was not the message intended.
     
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    In a manner of speaking yes. Some distinctions are that seasonal influenza has partially yielded to decades of vaccine research. That ~8% of total US mortality from seasonal influenza is dialed in to public acceptance.

    This new zoonotic might go out like SARS, with infection chain broken and not many thousands buried. (Fun fact, SARS vaccine was being built but investments on it were stopped when it stopped killing). I am avoiding discussing the much more serious scenario here, but media scares can be found.
     
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