SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    States past peak - then what?

    To some extent, every state has begun to relax physical distancing guidelines. So I looked at

    Data API | The COVID Tracking Project

    to see how weekly new case totals are going in some states. If your state (of interest) is not mentioned below, it means I have not looked at it.

    These states are not (2 weeks) past peak – AL, CA, MD, MN, TX, VA, WI
    So their re opening would be at variance with Whitehouse.gov and CDC guidelines.

    This state is past peak but showing a second wave – FL
    Official guidelines do not address this situation.

    States past peak but not continuing to slow new cases – CO, CT, GA, IA, IN, LA, MI, NV, OH, SD, TN
    Official guidelines do not address a situation of lack of continued improvement.

    States past peak and continuing to slow new cases - ID, IL, NJ, NY, PA, WA
    This is certainly the intention of balancing epidemiology with economic recovery.
     
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  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    International. Two ways to calculate winners (losers) in COVID-19 are cases per million and deaths per million. Just now I see UK as equaling US in former and exceeding in latter. Russia makes a similar shot at cases per million, but their fatality data may not be reliable.

    Seems too early to evaluate Brazil, India and S. Africa runs for winning. I see no other strong contestants among large countries.

    Completely aside from politics, we are obliged to wonder why hardest-hit countries are so, and learn from that how to better balance economic benefits and disease risks. Another bad boy will surely appear.
     
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  3. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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    I remember my mom always said, "Live and learn," and always understood what the implied alternative was.
     
  4. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    Unfortunately the US numbers could have been much lower had they not required infected people stay in senior care facilities in some states.
    Excluding those deaths the US numbers look much better.
     
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  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    agreed. the data is misleading, to say the least.

    this 'second wave' thing bothers me, because it is such a small amount of people. we keep reading about it in asia, and it's like, oh my, 6 people confirmed positive yesterday!:eek:

    i wish we all had florida's numbers. or at least those of us with higher.
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    I would add MS (and pretty much Dixie.) In Alabama, I follow progress down to the county level. Madison County is doing OK but Franklin and Marshall have meat processing plants. Franklin has an RV manufacturer and at least one case reported. There is a Limestone correctional facility, low level miscreants and so far, no reports of a breakout there.

    Local news indicates they have a small number of hospitalized cases but no reports of saturation. However, the more rural counties around us don't have our density of hospitals and physicians. Efforts to restrict the ACA (i.e., Obamacare) has decimated their clinics and hospitals.

    What bothers me is 'testing'. Some public figures have claimed 'testing' causes cases. This is public health practices independent of the quality of tests.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #2006 bwilson4web, May 23, 2020
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
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  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we still need more viral testing.

    'scientists warn of making assumptions from antibody test results'. we still don't know if we test positive:

    1) if the test is correct

    2) if we have much immunity, if any

    3) if we are not contagious
     
  8. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Active Member

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  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    you have to look at the state by state data. but some states are doing the same thing
     
  10. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Which makes their data less useful as well.
     
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    florida had a one day spike, but not a trend makes
     
  12. t_newt

    t_newt Member

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    I don't believe that for a second. I'm in my sixties, have high blood pressure (under medicated control), and have had heart disease. Otherwise I'm very healthy and fit. But I'm scared to death of getting Covid. If I catch it, my chances of dying are probably at least 10%.

    The flu? Who cares. I could easily weather a nasty flu. It isn't going to attack my immune system and later my internal organs or create lots of blood clots like Covid can.
     
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  13. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    I may be wrong, but the way I read it, I think @Trollbait point is that "The flu and other infectious diseases are deadlier to those with underlying health problems (than to those without underlying health problems just as COVI-19 is). I don't think he is comparing flu and other infectious disease fatality rate to the COVID-19 fatality rate.
     
    #2013 Salamander_King, May 23, 2020
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    2a) how long that case-induced immunity, in any, might last. The track record with the coronaviruses that cause common colds is not encouraging. The raw numbers of cases suggests that the average person catches each common-cold-coronavirus roughly ten times during his or her lifetime, suggesting that any immunity is at best short lived.
     
  15. t_newt

    t_newt Member

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    Ah, I can see how it can read that way, and it better matches the rest of what was said. Sorry for the misreading.
     
  16. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    I thought coronaviruses mutated too fast for a vaccine to be effective.
     
  17. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    At best, that is speculation.
    I’ve also heard studies that Covid-19 is a slow mutating virus.

    We are still studying this thing and have lots to learn.
     
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  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Pure speculation on my part, the ACE2 attraction of SARS_CoV-2 may be its weakness. An organic compound that attracts and decapitates or inactivates that crown spike may be a better response. Especially if it releases the deactivated head and goes after the next. A tetrahedral compound would be prefect.

    Bob Wilson
     
  19. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    I have also heard there are already 30 known mutations.
     
  20. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Do you mean functionally different mutations (e.g. potentially requiring different vaccines), or just the normal genetic drift that has allowed researchers to track many transmission paths?

    E.g. West Coast outbreaks are mostly derived from a version that arrived direct from Wuhan, while East Coast and most of the rest of U.S. cases derive from versions that went to Europe first, hanging around there for a while before continuing on to the U.S.

    upload_2020-5-24_19-13-31.png

    auspice
     
    #2020 fuzzy1, May 24, 2020
    Last edited: May 24, 2020
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