SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    His? Trumps? W.H.O? ...

    Now that we have a growing population of test subjects:
    Source: NIH to start 'flurry' of large studies of potential Covid-19 treatments

    The National Institutes of Health is preparing to launch a “flurry” of large clinical trials to test new approaches to treating Covid-19, according to the agency’s director, hoping to expand what for now remains a limited arsenal of therapies to help people with the disease.

    In an interview, NIH Director Francis Collins characterized the studies as “really well-powered, rigorously designed clinical trials.”
    . . .

    My experience has been properly conducted trials eliminate a lot of "feel good" announcements. Individual claims are not enough.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #2441 bwilson4web, Jul 23, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2020
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    sometimes it's a triage situation. i would prefer to see debate in the scietific community, not in washington
     
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Among states currently having rapid case-number increases, only Arizona has yet started to decrease. Several other states may start downward within the next week. No other good news jumps out, and I have not seen this reported.
     
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  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    the country is on the back nine, it's almost over...

    am i wrong to be concerned that ma can't get its numbers any lower?
     
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    MA new cases are slogging along at 12% of peak rate. Many states would see that with envy. Further improvements would at least include more testing because there they are still above 10% positivity. That is worse than national average and not something to envy.
     
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    more testing will mean more case, i'm trying to figure out how to get the number down, not up. i know, less testing :p
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    but seriously, i think there is a percentage of the population that is just going to keep putting themselves in harms way. or is it senior centers, or front line workers, or necessary workers, or even those going back to work and being cautious, but it's still too soon.
     
  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    business insider: 'according to the fort worth starr-telegram, hospital officials in starr county are so over run with covid patients, they will have to start sending home those they feel are likely to die.'
     
  9. John321

    John321 Active Member

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    This is exactly the dilemma everyone wants to avoid. When this situation you stated occurs the Health System in the affected area is compromised and people will not only die of Covid but the area loses all ability to effectively treat other emergency medical conditions.

    Selfish people who pass the Covid virus around affect everyone in the community. People who need cancer treatment, heart attack treatment etc are denied proper medical treatment because in many cases selfish people have failed to take proper protection or self quarantine.

    In our neck of the woods I would put people who decide to go on vacation to known Covid hotspots -become infected and then bring it back home to their communities compromising their area Health System as the ultimate example of being selfish.

    ! Warning this post contains someones humble opinion !
     
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  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My brother and I have been discussing death rates. We know it is a trailing metric which I thought was bout 6 weeks afer the peak COVID-19 diagnosis. But we know treatments have improved the outcomes. So does anyone have more current source of current COVID-19 metrics:
    1. How many recover at home . . . used to be ~80%
    2. How many hospitalized and recover . . . used to be ~15%
    3. How many die . . . used to be ~5%
    4. How long between exposure and symptoms . . . used to be 10-14 days
    5. How long (average!) hospital stay . . . 2-4 weeks
    6. How long (average!) to death . . . 4-6 weeks
    If we can compare current outcomes to past, we can gain a clue about how effective (and widely deployed) these improved treatments have become.

    Thanks,
    Bob Wilson
     
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  11. John321

    John321 Active Member

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  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Testing = Case is incorrectly stated surprisingly often.

    Testing changes a case into a known case. It is uniquely powerful in asymptomatic cases, such as are caused by this virus.

    Not testing may allow a case to remain unknown. Unknown cases are not subject to quarantine, contract tracing, treatment, or anything else. Being out in the lung-o-sphere, they act in service of virus until they get found out

    How known cases are handled varies across jurisdictions, but their ability to serve the virus is always reduced .

    ==
    To me it seems a very simple question of "Who's side are you on?"
     
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  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    whose side are you on
     
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    cdc changes guidance: covid victims may leave isolation after 10 days from onset of symptoms, with no testing.
     
  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    @bisco spelled 'whose' correctly above, and I did not. A rare combo.
     
  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    extremely
     
  17. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Active Member

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    Quarantine originally was 40 days (quarantena in mid-17th century Italian)
    Quarantine - Wikipedia

    Even isolation is going down the tubes . . . :eek:
     
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  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My brother cited that source. But this is why I'm interested in the efficiency of current treatments. We know they exist and individual papers identify how each works. Just I'd prefer not to do the 'heavy lifting' of mapping our current practices are working versus the earlier hot-States.

    Bob Wilson
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Several countries that previously worked down their new-case rates are rising again. Lifting is not heavy to identify them but it is a bit depressing.
     
  20. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    although that's 100% above, there ought to be a percentage for the asymptomatic - which then skews all the other percentages downward.
    .