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Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.
..... back when you are just seven or eight years old?
Here is another link, pointing to an actual herd immunity study on one of the 'common cold' coronaviruses:
CNN opinion: Herd immunity is a fantasy
"... Human coronaviruses in general have not been known to engender herd immunity. They've infected us like clockwork for decades — many of us many times over the course of our lives. Until recently, it was unclear whether this would be the case for SARS-CoV-2. Scientific case studies of two patients reinfected with Covid-19 — one in Hong Kong and the other in the United States (which is still undergoing peer review) — have since answered that question. The only one that remains is how often reinfection occurs.
What might shed some light on this issue is a collaborative, multiyear study led by researchers from the Netherlands and Kenya on the human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63), a member of the coronavirus family that isn't lethal but is endemic to populations worldwide. Like other nonlethal human coronaviruses, which likely infect us all at least once in our lifetime, HCoV-NL63 causes what we'd call a common cold. Three key findings from this study, which was published in 2018, can help inform our understanding of the Covid-19 virus SARS-CoV-2 and its ability to reinfect us.
The study was carried out across homes and hospitals in Kilifi County, Kenya, where researchers tracked the circulation of multiple coronaviruses throughout the community over a span of six years. The first relevant finding was that some patients weren't reinfected just once, but twice. One person even contracted the virus four times. This tells us that immunity to HCoV-NL63 was short-lived — so much so that some were reinfected within as little as three months.
The second significant finding was that a surprising number of patients had higher viral loads upon reinfection than they did during primary infection. ...
The third significant finding is that in six years, herd immunity to HCoV-NL63 was never acquired, and the virus continued to persist for the entire duration of the study. ..."
It seems that one city may have reached the lower threshold of "herd immunity". But it wasn't pretty, and it may not be lasting.
ScienceNews.org: A Brazilian city devastated by COVID-19 may have reached herd immunity
Blood donations suggest that up to half of Manaus was infected at the epidemic’s peak
The good news: tests of blood donations found antibodies peaking at 52% of donors in June, the peak of the local epidemic. Cases and deaths declined steadily after that, despite relaxing of social distancing measures, suggesting that herd immunity was occuring.
The bad news: at peak, the city's overall death rate was 4.5X the normal for that season. "Hospitals and cemeteries struggled to keep up, and mass graves were dug to bury the dead."
And "after that peak, seroprevalence fell, reaching 30 percent in August, a consequence of both waning antibody levels in people already infected and lower transmission rates, the researchers say."
Some things to beware of: the study is not yet peer reviewed, the antibody testing was not on a random sampling of residents, and the city has a particularly low fraction of elderly, only 6% over age 60.
For context, in Brazil, Manaus is #8 city by population.
Brazil demography is narrow for elders:
Quite like many other countrys' projections, 2060 does not consider new elder-taking diseases or what have you. Elders always edge towards fragile, except for small % with big money.
Covid ain't done and it won't be the last. I suggest that widely trimming demographic curves toward younger, is a thing not yet done, and with consequences not yet considered.
COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC
They do quite a job describing the scenarios in great detail, but somehow I totally missed the range of predicted outcomes in each case.
No state has yet reached 1 million cumulative cases. This may happen first in Texas (mid-November), California (late November) and Florida (late next January). Could be delayed by stronger interpersonal measures of course.
But as it may not be delayed, we can take some comfort that fraction of those dying (case fatality rate) has fallen from 6% mid-May to below 3% now. That fall has been discussed widely and includes both improved therapies and more younger people infected. They are less killable.
there's been an upward trend in many places over the last few weeks including here.
ma icu's hit the july fourth number today. governments are still reopening venues, and it looks like predictions for the second surge may be correct.
meanwhile, no one in authority has a plan, but i'll leave that for the other thread
I'd rather not mention how many states are accelerating. MA is not among the fastest.
ICU comment is important because several states are now at highest levels ever. Entering new territory (again not including MA).
yep. schools, sports, indoor activities, it's the perfect storm
Wisconsin is just nuts now. If any locals are here, I'd like to know how it seems to them.
'disney lays off 28,000 employees'. business is bad in the theme parks, restricted travel, reluctant fans.
some people have common sense
Ya keep putting ideas in my little head. Can Disney etc. market interactive video tours? Behind-the scenes looks? And charge audiences to participate?
There is a whole lot of 'stuff' and cast members that look like stranded assets now.
But FL gov. did just declare everything open....
our future may be a virtual reality...
I'm surprised they haven't gotten rid of more people already. Hopefully, at age 65, we'd do ok anyway - if the mouse handed us walking papers. But you got to feel sorry for the people living paycheck to paycheck. For the past year our group has been working off site, a few miles down the road. The 200 or so in our new/remote area? After asking around, nobody even knows anybody that got it - which makes sense, since such a huge contingent have no symptoms at all.
Not sure if this is what you're looking for, but the table/chart 'half way down the page' :
"...They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19..."
Table 1. Parameter Values that vary among the five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios.
Infection Fatality Ratio†
Scenario 1 , Scenario 2
0-19 years: 0.00002
20-49 years: 0.00007
50-69 years: 0.0025
70+ years: 0.028
Scenario 3 , Scenario 4
0-19 years: 0.0001
20-49 years: 0.0003
50-69 years: 0.010
70+ years: 0.093
Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate
0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054
Could you please explain the math on how that below 3% (now) relates to any of the latest Infection Fatality Ratio(s) ?
i'm surprised cali isn't allowing a limited opening
Map of Calif. status by counties
Blueprint for a Safer Economy - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
(about half way down page, and what happens in each color is explained)
my neice and her husband just bailed out of LA to albuquerque for a month. between covid and smoke, it hasn't been a pleasant place to be.