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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    For each case such as Foreman, there seem to be one or more Muhammad Alis.

    Note also that Foreman's 'entrepreneurship' is not inventing or marketing or managing or supervising anything, but rather just licensing his name and likeness and serving as a paid spokesperson for home appliance maker Salton Inc.

    Your "99.99 5% have nothing to worry" claim is an extreme denialist stance. It claims that only about 16,500 Americans have anything to worry about, effectively denying that more than 10X that number, 210,000 are ALREADY DEAD!!
     
    #2821 fuzzy1, Oct 8, 2020
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Excerpt from abstract from article cited here:

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/10/us-states-stopped-their-pandemic-social-restrictions-too-soon

    "Using segmented linear regression, we evaluated how state government relaxation of social distancing measures affected the time-varying effective reproduction number. We detected an immediate and significant reversal in epidemic growth gains after relaxation of social distancing measures across the U.S."

    ==
    It really was a mistake. Can't be undone, but more social distancing seems like an obvious choice for coming few months.
     
    #2822 tochatihu, Oct 8, 2020
  3. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    sorry - the reference was meant to refer only to the survivors ..... those who sometimes wishing they hadn't -
    .
     
    #2823 hill, Oct 9, 2020
  4. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Even for that, your number is very far off base from what the reports are indicating.

    Survivors with continuing problems outnumber the dead.
     
    #2824 fuzzy1, Oct 9, 2020
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Some fella at Harvard just said that repeated tests of the same people for work, school, etc. are skewing the positive test percentage downwards and making it difficult to get a handle on positivity rates in the general population
     
    #2825 bisco, Oct 10, 2020
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  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I'm not sure it affects public policy except perhaps mandatory mask orders.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #2826 bwilson4web, Oct 10, 2020
  7. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    Good point. My workplace is requiring any on-site worker to have universal testing every 2 weeks. The positivity rate is 0. 06% among the non-symptomatic tested workers.
     
    #2827 Salamander_King, Oct 10, 2020
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  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    US overall mortality rates

    US overall mortality rates.png
     
    #2828 tochatihu, Oct 10, 2020
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  9. Merkey

    Merkey Active Member

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    Slow reversion to the mean? Let's hope so.
     
    #2829 Merkey, Oct 11, 2020
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Optimism can take one further than that. An elder population with co-morbidities has been removed (rather a quiet verb) and will not contribute to subsequent weekly deaths.

    OTOH, new cases are rising now. With weak controls on lung interactions and less than aggressive contact tracing, they could rise much faster later. Medical interventions are doing much better than in 2020 Spring. If they do not become vastly overloaded, they can keep fatalities at 3% or below. Three % of another million cases would be 'small' (as we now count things). Three % of another 5 million cases would not be.

    Per worldview, US now has more active cases than ever before. God help the medicos.
     
    #2830 tochatihu, Oct 11, 2020
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  11. Merkey

    Merkey Active Member

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    Is it possible less severe cases are being admitted to hospitals now, rather than being sent home to recover, because beds might be more available now?
     
    #2831 Merkey, Oct 11, 2020
  12. Moving Right Along

    Moving Right Along Senior Member

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    Very few places had a documented hospital bed shortage. I think it’s more likely that we have greater access to more tests that are more accurate, which results in more cases identified.
     
    #2832 Moving Right Along, Oct 11, 2020
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  13. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Senior Member

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    #2833 ILuvMyPriusToo, Oct 11, 2020
  14. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Senior Member

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    #2834 ILuvMyPriusToo, Oct 11, 2020
  15. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    Only for those that did not go to the current government HHS site.

    State Representative Estimates for Hospital Utilization
     
    #2835 Prodigyplace, Oct 11, 2020
  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    weather is still mild, people are still foolish. plenty of time for a major outbreak
     
    #2836 bisco, Oct 11, 2020
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    usa today: 'WHO does not recommend lockdowns to slow the co'
     
    #2837 bisco, Oct 11, 2020
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    WHO recommends (pretty much) everything else except lockdowns. Lung spacing, avoid crowds, extensive testing, contact tracing, isolation of known or suspected cases ... things like that.
     
    #2838 tochatihu, Oct 11, 2020
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #2839 tochatihu, Oct 12, 2020
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  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I had no inkling that Pepcid was for anything beyond its on-label use. Nature Microbiol article mentioned in link above presents evidence that it blocks a virus replication enzyme. This may or may not be a common feature of H2 blockers. I couldn't tell ya.
     
    #2840 tochatihu, Oct 12, 2020
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