SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Merely sitting down in an eatery makes you much braver than me. But those adjacent seats not being already taped off reflects on the establishments and the governments, not their customers.

    ... and now, all inside seating is closed statewide here.

    I'm on track to take another elder care / agricultural shift this coming week, in a deep red zone. Early on, they did obey mask and distancing guidelines, and kept their covid rate well below my area near the original national epicenter. But the last several times I was there, a great majority had returned to non-pandemic behaviors. E.g. in the grocery store, none of the staff was masked, and I was among the only two or three customers to wear masks.

    Their current covid rate is far higher now than it ever was here. And dad's nearest neighbors tested positive this past week.
     
    #3001 fuzzy1, Nov 22, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2020
  2. GreenJuice

    GreenJuice Active Member

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    Probably mentioned somewhere in the previous 3000+ postings, but worth stating that seat belt laws and speed limits are good examples of decisions that were not left for individuals to decide. I’m sure we can think of many others.

    Figures in the U.K. are looking better under this second lockdown. Fingers crossed we manage to get it right down.

    Take extra care all you people in the States. The last thing you want as we (hopefully) approach the vaccine end-game is to catch it badly just before a nationwide roll-out.

    (Makes me think of those sad stories that emerge in the final days of war)
     
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  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  4. sam spade 2

    sam spade 2 Senior Member

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    Florida has a brain dead Governor and so we are living proof that people can't be trusted to make the tough decisions on their own.
    MANY locally owned eateries are acting like nothing is happening; no reduced capacity and no masks on the staff.
    I refuse to eat at those places. Oh.....and bars are open to full indoor capacity too.
    This stupidity will catch up to us. It's just a matter of time.
     
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  5. John321

    John321 Active Member

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    Rules certainly help and also allow enforcement.

    I also think wearing a mask and observing 6 foot distance is a litmus test of an individuals character.

    Everyone realizes how contagious the virus is- how it can be a death sentence for some and how they conduct themselves to limit others risk gives wonderful insight into their character or lack of character.
     
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  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  8. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Active Member

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    Portable variations too!
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    'moderna chief medical officer says there is no proof that the vaccine will prevent people from being contageous, he thinks it will. but we should not change our behavior until more is known'
     
  10. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    I would think that scientifically he has to say this. The vaccine trials are setup to measure only the placebo infections and the real vaccine infections. They then compare these two numbers (and probably a bunch of subsets of these by gender, blood type, age, etc.) to come up with the efficacy number.
    If they aren't measuring who each vaccinated person infects how could they make any such claim?
    Besides, how would they measure that unless they corralled all the participants in a locked stadium and monitored them somehow.

    Mike
     
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  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Infecting a 'target' and measuring success is right on the line of medical ethics (nowadays). It is done very rarely.
     
  12. GreenJuice

    GreenJuice Active Member

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    It sounds like this depends on the study design. That might be the case for Moderna, but as reported in the CNN interview (final minutes of that segment) of the Astrazenica product posted by tochahitu #3003 above , those researchers did include trying to address the question of suppression of viral transmission in their study design.

    Regarding the Astrazenica product, worth noting that the accidental under dosing of the first dose in those 2,741 volunteers that achieved the 90+% efficacy result were apparently in the 18 - 55 age group - so no data (as yet, I understand) on such efficacy in older subjects. Fingers crossed that will come soon.
     
  13. GreenJuice

    GreenJuice Active Member

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    Indeed.
    From the perspective that most of these simplest interventions (distance, mask, hand-washing, reducing social interactions) are of greater direct benefit to others than to oneself, but eventually benefits oneself too; this pandemic has really asked some tough and revealing questions about the nature of our society and humanity in the modern world.

    Why so difficult to appreciate this interconnected world?
     
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  14. SFO

    SFO Senior Member

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    Given the number of false positives (2) (known CDC quality control, obvious laboratory / fiscal biases, unapproved tests, multiple case reportings, etc), are there any empirical data sets that include the cycle threshold (Ct) numbers for given RT-PCR test results?

    I've read that test takers (or providers) are supplied with test results that include Ct numbers, does anyone know this to be true?

    The negative results (below) could be positive if a lab were to follow the FDA, or even the implied Fauci guidelines.


    [​IMG]
     
  15. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Active Member

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    A negative result shouldn't have a Ct (cycle threshold) value, because the RT-PCR determination is "not detected" at the max number of cycles - typically 35-40).

    I guess I don't understand that graph. Where did it come from?
     
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  16. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    Your first link for the false-positive examples is about the antigen test, not the same thing as the PCR test. While it is not completely non-existence, false-positive for RT-PCR is very rare other than a possible human error of sample contamination. The currently used RT-PCR based COVID-19 test has very high specificity but moderate sensitivity. Often this results in more false-negative, but it is most often attributed to the sample quality again due to mainly human error.
     
    #3017 Salamander_King, Nov 25, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2020
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Some environmental DNA (from mosquitoes I think) from Tibet was collected by colleagues a while back. It went though PCR, Illumina, QIME and gene library; typical workflow I guess. it showed the presence of dolphins or porpoises (forgot which) which was treated as a false positive :)
     
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    COVID news is mostly bad so I'll lead with the good stuff. While upper Midwest states are now notable for going upper, IA, IL, MO, ND, NE, SD and WI may be decelerating. A few others may soon follow. Just keep your lungs to yourselves, and others will soon turn the corner as well.


    On the other side, AL, CA, CT, MA, NJ, NV and TX have reached new case peaks recently. Three of those are in the northeast group that went bad early. Very sad to see them on this list.

    US new cases and fatalities are both rising and with momentum that will take time to turn around. Please behave.
     
  19. Merkey

    Merkey Active Member

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    Will be interesting to see what Thanksgiving visits bring.
     
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