SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Active Member

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    Interesting in that within that population, identified asymptomatic positives did not seem to be passing the virus to close contacts. 2/3rds of those asymptomatic individuals exhibited a measurable antibody response, which might suppress replication/shedding. Perhaps these folks were on the tail end of their infections, but it does support that once viral numbers are under control, things look much better.
     
  2. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    From CNN . . . . seems inexplicable - as though we're to understand that yea, folks will die after getting the injection, but it's not the injection;

    CNN: ‘Don’t Be Alarmed’ if People Start Dying After Taking the Vaccine – Summit News

    what?

    the better ½, on the recommendation of of doctors that treated her in the hospital (5 day stay) suggested she donate blood regularly so as to see how long her immunity stayed. This was 9 months ago & they're telling her she's still got what ever immunity(ies) that goes on. Wonder how wide / long that range is.
    .
     
    #3322 hill, Jan 3, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2021
  3. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Try reading closer -- that isn't from CNN, that is from Summit News, early December. And that headline is horrid, making me wonder if it was written by an anti-CNN anti-vaxer. From the last couple paragraphs, maybe the author himself is an anti-vaxer.

    The linked CNN article doesn't say "start dying", those are Summit News' words. But the linked CNN item does say:

    ""When shots begin to go into arms of residents, [associate director of the Immunization Action Coalition, Dr. Kelly...] Moore said Americans need to understand that deaths may occur that won't necessarily have anything to do with the vaccine.

    "We would not at all be surprised to see, coincidentally, vaccination happening and then having someone pass away a short time after they receive a vaccine, not because it has anything to do with the vaccination but just because that's the place where people at the end of their lives reside," Moore said.

    "One of the things we want to make sure people understand is that they should not be unnecessarily alarmed if there are reports, once we start vaccinating, of someone or multiple people dying within a day or two of their vaccination who are residents of a long-term care facility. That would be something we would expect, as a normal occurrence, because people die frequently in nursing homes.""


    I should point out that, pre-Covid, the normal U.S. rate was 7800 deaths per day. As of yesterday, 4.2M / 330M = 1.3% of the U.S. population had been vaccinated. If those vaccinations were randomly and evenly distributed, that means about 7800 x 1.3% = 100 vaccinated people per day should now be dying of all the usual pre-Covid causes.

    But the vaccine rollout is not randomly and evenly distributed, the initial focus is on high risk populations, including nursing home residents. Nursing home populations normally die at a far far higher rate than the general population, so if we are reaching them properly, we should be able to find large numbers of vaccinated residents dying of all the usual causes every day. But this is not a concern unless they are dying in higher numbers than are a similar cohort of non-vaccinated residents.
     
    #3323 fuzzy1, Jan 3, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2021
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  4. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Summit News doesn't seem to show any organization or contact information, though does show plenty of questionable headlines.

    So then I looked it up elsewhere:

    "
    • Overall, we rate Summit News Questionable based on Extreme Right-wing bias, promotion of conspiracies, misleading and unproven stories, and a complete lack of transparency.
    Detailed Report
    Reasoning: Extreme Right, Conspiracies, Misleading/Unproven Information, Lack of Transparency
    Country: USA
    World Press Freedom Rank: USA 45/180

    History

    Launched in March 2019, Summit News is a far-right conspiracy website. Like most questionable sources this website does not have an about page nor disclosure of ownership. The primary writer appears to be Paul Joseph Watson, who is a former editor for the conspiracy website Infowars. Although not disclosed, Paul Joseph Watson appears to be the owner and editor of this website. Further, Summit News has been banned on Facebook."

    summit news.GIF
     
    #3324 fuzzy1, Jan 3, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2021
  5. GreenJuice

    GreenJuice Active Member

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    Also currently topical in our medical chats - to anticipate (and not be alarmed) when the media start to report the first cases of those vaccinated but then catch the virus and have a bad outcome. A statistical certainty and only a matter of time.
     
  6. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    And will be given a huge amount of media coverage by all those who don't understand what percentages are all about.

    Mike
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    media? i think i'll reserve my comments for the fhopol thread
     
  8. Mark57

    Mark57 2021 Tesla Model 3 LR AWD

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    At 9:00am this morning our county health dept opened an 800 slot on-line signup for vaccinations this coming Thursday. There were 20 slots per every 15 minute interval from 8am to 6pm. I was able to get my wife a slot. All 800 slots were taken by 9:00:20. We don't know which vaccine it is yet, and don't care. The state can't get out of it's on way. At least several counties have taken on the task to get started. No, I don't qualify yet.
     
  9. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Today, the CDC pushed the starting date of this page back to January 1, 2020. That exposes an additional half dozen early covid deaths that we have never before heard about, even one the very first week of January last year.

    That page shows 3,171,913 all-cause deaths for 2020 and the first 2 days of 2021. And the preliminary December figures are still very obviously significantly undercounted, to the tune of ~100,000.
     
  10. Mark57

    Mark57 2021 Tesla Model 3 LR AWD

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    My wife received her Pfizer shot this morning. It went well. I know some out there falsely claim there is massive genetic manipulation in these vaccines. To prove this is false, here's a photo I took of her as soon as she got home. Pretty hot for 65, eh?

    Lela.png

    Seriously, it was a very smooth process and no reactions or soreness of any kind. She's very allergic to nuts and took her epipen but it was a non-issue.
     
  11. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    This should have been a dead horse long ago, but because it as arisen as a zombie multiple times, I'll continue flogging it. Both preliminary CDC measures I'm following now actually show more than the 3.2 Million all-cause deaths in 2020, far in excess of prior years.

    Today's daily page update now shows a Covid-era all-cause death count of 3,209,597 from 1/1/2020 through 1/2/2021. After prorating by subtracting 2/7ths of the 14,901 currently listed for the week ending 1/2/2021 (i.e. subtract 4257), produces 3,205,340 reported deaths in 2020. So far. This count is a floor, it can only climb as more reports are processed over the next couple months.

    The other page
    , the one including estimates for reports for jurisdictions not yet received, now figures out to 3,240,000 through December 26. Extrapolating for the remaining five days of the year, that works out to 3,287,000 for the whole year. This estimate is not a floor, it can go either direction as placeholder estimates are replaced by hard figures.

    Refresher comparisons from past years:
    2,846,000 deaths in all 2018,
    2,861,000 deaths in all 2019.
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    my feeling is that inner city essential workers should be prioritized
     
  13. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Abstract
    We are currently faced with the question of how the CoV-2 severity may change in the years ahead. Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly, but disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. Our model, incorporating these components of immunity, recapitulates both the current severity of CoV-2 and the benign nature of HCoVs, suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold. We predict a different outcome for an emergent coronavirus that causes severe disease in children. These results reinforce the importance of behavioral containment during pandemic vaccine rollout, while prompting us to evaluate scenarios for continuing vaccination in the endemic phase.

    Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity | Science


    Layman's read here:
    Coronavirus Will Resemble the Common Cold, Scientists Predict - The New York Times
     
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    how do we change the behavior in people getting the vaccine, whose behavior can't be changed before it?
     
  15. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Probably not too much hope there, but just receiving the vaccine is a big achievement in that cohort. Once 70%+ of population has been vaccinated the situation will be a whole lot better.
     
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  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    and the other 30% will contract it, putting a bow on the whole thing.

    i read about a study today, (nyt) that it will likely become like the common cold after all is said and done.
     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The ‘common cold’ has without a lot of press pushed many over the brink without the press releases. COVID-19 has lifted the veil about this under recognized killer.

    Bob Wilson
     
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    not sure i follow you
     
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  19. jdenenberg

    jdenenberg EE Professor

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    I am now scheduled to receive the Covid vaccine on Feb 1 (over 75 rule). This should give me protection by the end of March. My 73 year old spouse will have to wait another month or so here in Connecticut. I guess I'll be stuck teaching on-line until next September.

    JeffD
     
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  20. sam spade 2

    sam spade 2 Senior Member

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    All members of an "over 75 household" might qualify. Wouldn't hurt to ask.
    And many places have changed the threshold to 65.
     
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