SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. jdenenberg

    jdenenberg EE Professor

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    My spouse is not permitted to schedule the vaccine yet. We did manage to put her on a standby list. They will call her to fill in a last minute open slot when someone fails to show up for their vaccine.

    JeffD
     
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    doesn't matter, nothing is going to change in 2021
     
  3. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    And now someone has done the calculations:

    Pandemic Shortens U.S. Life Expectancy, Study Concludes


    "The deaths caused by COVID-19 have reduced overall life expectancy by 1.13 years, according to the analysis by researchers at the University of Southern California and Princeton University.

    That would be the largest single-year decline in life expectancy in the past 40 years and cut U.S. life expectancy to 77.48 years — the lowest it's been since 2003, the researchers say.

    "This impact is about 10 times as large as the worrisome annual decreases several years ago that were attributed largely to drug overdoses, other external causes, and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases," the researchers write in a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    The reduction in life expectancy is estimated to be even greater among racial and ethnic minorities. Life expectancy is estimated to fall by 2.10 years among Blacks and 3.05 years among Latinos. The decline would be 0.68 years among whites."
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    our son got his second shot yesterday. took some tylenol prophylactically. very minor sore throat for about 12 hours.
     
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I think that article could have separate effects by gender but it did not. More LE reduction on males. So if you have spare time, recalculate on that basis and get a letter published in PNAS :)

    ==
    New, more transmissible virus variant is going around. We have been assured that mRNA vaccines will work against it just as well. There are other vaccines in pipeline that act in different ways. If anyone sees information on how those might cope with virus variations, please post
     
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i haven't seen any facts or data beyond that, just a lot of media hype
     
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Oh you.

    mRNA vaccines direct cells to manufacture a small part of the spike protein. Selected, I feel sure, because it is exposed on spike surface. Otherwise, your next-manufactured antibodies would not detect spikes and they'd not be 90%+.

    If 'hotter' variation of virus does not change that sequence, or does not change its exposure on spike surface, mRNA vaccines will still initiate effective antibody responses.

    Other vaccine candidates AFAIK give you the entire virus (inactivated) or a large portion of its pieces. Ones' antibody responses to those may differ for the hotter variation.
     
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  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Nucleic acid and protein sequencing have become absurdly fast. We cannot be more than a few weeks away from publication detailing hot COVID's differences.

    ==
    Sequencers are Krakens. For real
     
    #3348 tochatihu, Jan 15, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2021
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  9. Merkey

    Merkey Active Member

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    Got my 1st shot yesterday (Friday). Less pain than a regular flu shot. Will get 2nd shot in 3 weeks. (In 70+ age bracket).
     
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  10. xliderider

    xliderider Senior Member

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    Received my second shot last Saturday, today makes one week post vaccination. 2nd dose went pretty much the same as the first dose.

    Except I didn't have the insomnia this time. Still hurt like a bitch the second day though. Felt the blahs too.

    My wife had a low grade fever and the chills though..

    Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.
     
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  11. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Active Member

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    The B.1.1.7 variant has 17 mutations relative to the reference Covid-19 genomic sequence, including 8 that affect the spike protein sequence.

    Fortuitously, one of these changes affects a primer site used in a multiplex PCR diagnostic assay. That was the basis for the initial detection of this strain in the UK and subsequent monitoring of its spread globally.

    Mutant coronavirus in the United Kingdom sets off alarms, but its importance remains unclear | Science | AAAS
     
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  12. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Active Member

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  13. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    even if it's just 95% of all us geezers over 65 that are vaccinated - (maybe 27% population) then death rates will be far below flu death rates. ....... leaving the deaths of small businesses suicides the greatest victims in comparison to flu.
    Even at age 65+, & not having any symptoms after acquiring it months ago, it makes one wonder how (percentage wise) large that contingent is - that don't need to get a shot for them self, if you made her T's wear off, but for others, if you muetterties do you wear off.
    .
     
    #3354 hill, Jan 18, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2021
  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Huh???? o_O What are you trying to say here?

    The 400,000 known U.S. deaths so far (as of tomorrow on JHU, or last week on worldometers, or last month on the CDC's excess death chart) vastly exceed any flu season since 1918.
    A recent estimate I heard was about 40% of cases being completely asymptomatic. And a good majority of the rest not requiring hospitalizations. Even many old folks remaining asymptomatic. Others have different estimates, but I haven't kept track of them.

    But those don't change the fact of overflowing hospitals / ICUs / ERs, patients being treated in hallways and chapels and gift shops and conference rooms, insufficient staff to handle all the extra patients, patients waiting many hours in ambulances unable to off-load because all local hospitals are unable to accept them, ambulance crews ordered to not take certain patients to hospitals if probability of survival is low, overwhelmed morgues requiring long rows of refrigerated trucks for overflow, funeral slots unavailable for a month or two, and crematories backed up because demand exceeds the number of cremations allowed by their air pollution permits (limits just now waived in LA).
     
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  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: COVID-19 reduced U.S. life expectancy, especially among Black and Latino populations: Life expectancy at birth will shorten by more than one year -- ScienceDaily

    COVID-19 reduced U.S. life expectancy, especially among Black and Latino populations
    Life expectancy at birth will shorten by more than one year

    Date: January 14, 2021
    Source: University of Southern California

    Summary:
    A new study finds that due to COVID-19 deaths last year, life expectancy at birth for Americans will shorten by 1.13 years to 77.48 years -- the largest single-year decline in life expectancy in at least 40 years.

    Bob Wilson
     
  16. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    I might be wrong, but think @hill is trying to point out even if the vaccination effort is slow as long as most of the 65 and over population gets it, that will lower the overall case fatality rate of the COVID-19 going forward to below that of average flu case fatality rate.
     
  17. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    So is he trying to compare only future, post-vaccine deaths, against all the business casualties including going back over the past year, pre-vaccine?

    Of course, that doesn't include the value of lives saved by the non-pharmaceutical interventions that led to those business casualties. I'm remembering the 'forecastimated' death toll, absent any interventions, as 1 to 2.4 Million. With good interventions, one-tenth of that. So far we have missed the high end, but unfortunately have blown way past the low end.
     
  18. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    I can't speak for him, but what I got from his message was that as long as most of the 65 and older population get vaccinated (thus protected from getting severely sick from COVID-19) even if the rest of the population do not get fully vaccinated, the future case fatality will fall, but that still leaves the deaths of small businesses suicides or other COVID-19 related victims not counted toward the case fatality which would not have happened if this was just regular flu. If that is what he meant, then I must agree with him.
     
    #3359 Salamander_King, Jan 19, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2021
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  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    shot frequency must be picking up, now the media is whining about supply :cool:
     
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