SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. privilege

    privilege Member

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    if the gov wanted to trot out info that might convince more folks to test drive their experiamental vaccines, showing both groups would be a good way to do it....

    but

    it seems that isn't working in favor of the vaxies after all.
     
  2. privilege

    privilege Member

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    if only there were some way to get the entire population to accept lockdown orders.

    like broadcasting it on the television
     
  3. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    How so?
     
  4. T1 Terry

    T1 Terry Active Member

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    Love it :lol: If we could get enough mRNA vaccine over here to get even 1 shot into arms, the line would be so long outside each vaccine hub you could just step out the front door of the house and join the line ....... The only vaccine we have plenty of is the vaccine and that has been linked to deadly blood clotting ( in people who had no previous history of blood clotting) that the age advice keeps going up, yet our illustrious leader is pressuring the medical advisers to soften the tone and lower the age limit from 60 + down to 50 or lower ...... simply because his strategy of relying on the local made produce fell flat on his face .... bet ya can't guess which vaccine he got when showing off how tough he was on national tv .......

    The 6:1 multiplication rate over only 3 days will show just how effective the lockdown strategy is, all they could contact from each venue where the super spreader event occurred received a text message to self isolate and get tested on the Monday afternoon, virtually as soon as the 2 separate cases were detected ..... the whole state went into lockdown 24hrs later ......
    2 cases on day zero, 12 new cases 3 days later, Friday onwards will be the indicator as to just how successful the snap lockdown was, will the x 6 multiplier result in 72 new cases or more after the 12 cases share their brew around the community?

    I know I'm only talking small numbers here, but we aren't a very big population state to start with and a lot of the population lives close to the areas where the spreader event happened ..... and they were both celebration events, so they were attended by people from all over the state ..... maybe even interstate but we don't have too many borders still open .... even less now :(

    T1 Terry
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Although a privacy problem, I would like to see family members of COVID-19 dead interviewed and broadcast on local TV news. Our society is too silent about COVID-19 deaths but turning them into short memorials, shared in public, associates a face with reality.

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Post-vax blood clotting seems dangerous but rare. I would say 1/million vax, but if better stats are available, I hope they get posted here.

    My point is that those problems seem to get full media attention, while unvaccinated COVID deaths may get less. As implied by @bwilson4web just above. If this disparity truly exists it is wrong and needs correction.

    ==
    COVID took a shot at humans, and few zoonotics have done better. It was met by unprecedented rapid vaccine developments and use. Its only hopes now are to spin off variants, and for those to be supported by anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers.
     
  7. T1 Terry

    T1 Terry Active Member

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    From this news report from the govt funded free to air news source
    TGA links deaths of 44yo Tasmanian man and 48yo Victorian woman to AstraZeneca vaccine - ABC News

    Reading through the report, 6.1 million does administered, but that includes first and second doses, so should that figure be halved to get a better idea of how many have had a blood clot reaction and how many have actually been recorded as having died in Australia that they directly link to the first does of this vaccine?
    6 deaths but 87 cases in 3 million people if you halve the number of doses administered, that's just in Australia.
    To put that into perspective, 0.000029% chance of getting a blood clotting disorder ..... certainly rare but .... still scary all the same, my chances of being injured or killed on the roads are far higher than that and after surviving a hit from behind that should have killed me ..... still a little cautious about rolling the dice again ...... been suffering from the MVA for over 17 yrs now so still clear in the memory

    T1 Terry
     
  8. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Interesting.....our government funded funded FTA news has a different slant on vaccinations.
    They do not ascribe vaccine hesitancy to the over-sensationalizing of very rare vaccine complications in persons with underlying conditions, but rather they claim that it arises from competing media outlets.
    This is rather curious since our minorities are over-represented by those who are hesitant to get the shot, and if (our) government funded news is correct this might also indicate that their competitors have better market penetration in minority communities.
    .....something I sorta doubt.
    Our illegal immigrants (some feel) are hesitant to get the shot because it necessarily brings them into contact with government authorities - NOT because they're watching conservative news outlets. Unlike AU, it's illegal in this country to use the military for border enforcement, and some federal laws (immigration, drugs) are more or less ignored in some of our "sanctuary" states...something that is "might" have "down range" consequences with other federal regulations.
    We have other minority groups who are reported to be more skeptical of the vaccine because of our racist past. Curiously....those same groups (probably NOT devotees of radical conservative outlets!) are also much MORE likely to use cloth face masks - something that is much less effective than N95 masks, which in turn seem to be much less effective than..........vaccinations or previous exposure, or both.

    Normally?
    It's pretty simple math.

    HOWEVER (comma!) if you want to get an ideal of how complicated and emotional it is......try and prompt a real discussion about the the real-world morbidity of this disease (<1% seems likely) when just comparing it out loud with influenza will get you de-platformed (actively muzzled) in this nation.
    Or?
    Mention the idea that private entities, or even public schools have a right to require vaccinations as a precondition for employment or enrollment respectively, and you'll get comparisons with Nazi Germany for vaccinations that have already been given out over a BILLION times in the last year - making them probably "statistically" safer than any of a dozen vaccinations that have ALREADY been mandated for the better part of the last 75 years in this country.

    American Exceptionalism o_O

    The numbers from your government funded news seem to indicate that there is a 1:1,000,000 chance of fatal complications from the AZ vaccine, which roughly tracks data sourced from other nations, and aren't much different from the other vaccinations, from what I've been reading.
    Since people still buy lottery tickets - it's safe to assume that EVERYBODY thinks that.......they're 1 in a million. ;)

    Good Luck down there!
    Wish we were closer.
    They're actually talking about PAYING people to get vaccinated in some parts of this country.....

    In Oz, they seem to have more arms than shots.

    What a world we inhabit.....
     
    #4128 ETC(SS), Jul 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2021
  9. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    I'm fairly confident that a straightforward out-loud comparison (like, ferinstance, "600,000 all-cause excess US deaths Feb to Feb, compared to past years with influenza doing its normal brisk business") could be made with little fear of deplatforming.

    Now if somebody was going to make special effort to select a statistic that obscured that, maybe some concern about deplatforming wouldn't be unrealistic in that case.
     
  10. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Depending on who is regulating the platform..... ;)
    Mortality rate, or death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time...according to the CDC....if they're to be believed these days. I used 'morbidity' above to call out some of the English majors, but nobody bit. :(

    Last time I checked, 610,000 divided by 330,000,000 is something like 0.184 percent....or (using the same modality) roughly one third as deadly as the 1919 bug.

    Progress.....
     
    #4130 ETC(SS), Jul 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2021
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  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    just saw my doc. he said more and more studies are showing few ill effects from delta in the vaccinated, and they are not carriers. edit: unless and until they are symptomatic. i forgot that part :oops:
     
    #4131 bisco, Jul 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2021
  12. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I don’t believe COVID is done with us yet.
     
  13. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Another way you could think of comparing COVID and flu "out loud" with little fear of being called out for obscurantism:

    top10.png

    I might have read your earlier post too carelessly; where you wrote "just comparing it out loud with influenza", it wasn't clear to me at first that you meant going back a century to compare to the particular flu event that was one of history's deadliest pandemics.
     
  14. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    One of history's deadliest pandemics?
    ...meh.
    OK.
    Top dozen perhaps in the last 2,000 years.
    .
    H1N1 is a type of influenza A virus, one of several flu virus strains that can cause the seasonal flu outbreaks even today.

    Well...OK.
    NOT TODAY because 49,000 deaths per annum aren't really a factor...until they ARE.
    Maybe.

    So...
    How many deaths will the Vid get blamed for year over year THIS year?
    600,000?
    100,000?
    49,000? ;)

    Hint: The vaccine either works or it doesn't....or put another way...the 1918 flu is still killing people....some people think even LOTS of people....or NONE.


    ...when you can't even get trained scientists to agree on the definition of "gain of function" then we're ALL just playing Calvin Ball, aren't we?

    Can he still use facebook and the tweets? ;)
     
    #4134 ETC(SS), Jul 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2021
  15. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Here it sounds almost as if you're saying H1N1 is one thing, rather than one giant subclassification of influenza A viruses according to their hemagglutinin and neuraminidase proteins. It's almost as if you're suggesting that the 1918 H1N1 is actually at large in the present day, outside of a BSL-3 lab in Atlanta.

    It's puzzling why you might want someone reading your post to think that, considering the differences between present-day human H1N1 strains and the 1918 bug.

    (a) is what a present-day H1N1 does in some mouse lung; (c) is the same but with the 1918 strain.

    [​IMG]

    A place from which we could look back and say it now has only the mortality and hospital-filling effects of familiar seasonal infections would not be a bad place to get to. I'm sure I would pause there for a word of thanks.

    I wonder, in calling it "the Vid", whether it's a little premature just now to say 'the', given the number of people we have still eagerly volunteering as breeding sites for Vid++, Vid#, and Vid 2: Nucleic Boogaloo.
     
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  16. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    No more different than.....say Covid and what IT evolves into?
    If it looks like a duck....
    At least if somebody leaves doors propped open, or some PITA nut "frees" the animals in the University of Gawja's labs we'll have a 50-percent chance (depending on political factors) that our newsies will sound the alarm and point fingers in the right direction....maybe even fairly quickly.
    MAYBE even quickly enough!
    Wuhan coronavirus isn't a threat to the United States. Flu is. - Los Angeles Times
    If we keep mismanaging the fight, then the virus is going to keep finding opportunities to excel....and the mismanagement seems to span 2 administrations now.

    Example: Halting one vaccination rollout after something like 5 adverse reactions in the first XX million jabs
    Example: Non-differential quarantine, masking, school, and lockdown policies between the vaccinated and unvaccinated.
    Example: SHTF headlines of non-contextualized case numbers followed by strident pleas to get vacc'd following state death numbers which are less than the average Chicago weekend gang shooting tallies. (Yes....I know. Deaths are a lagging indicator....)

    Like I said before....
    The vaccine either WORKS, or it doesn't.
    The last time we did lockdowns it was because we didn't know what we didn't know, and the excuse (at the time) was that we didn't want people spilling out of emergency rooms and into parking lots.
    OK.
    What's the excuse going to be THIS time?
    If the US has a 'yuuge' dearth of arms to jab AND the Covid is a shape-shifter, then "science" should be urging "government" to send the juice to where the arms ARE....or is it NOT really a transcontinental traveler?
    Otherwise?
    It's all just politics, because my reading of the overall effectiveness between wildly varying state mitigations leads me to believe that people are getting into baseball statistics arguments about not very much difference between State R and State D.

    Of course.....MY reading of the numbers is rather subjective, right? ;)

    MY country
    MY state
    MY county
    MY numbers

    What's the 'scientific method' again? :unsure:
     
    #4136 ETC(SS), Jul 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2021
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  17. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Are you here kinda hoping to leave the impression with your readers that, of the H1N1 strains that existed in 1918, the one that gave us the pandemic is the one that evolved into the seasonal ones we know today?

    Why would you want to do that?
     
  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The vaccine only works if it is taken by individuals. My vaccination does not protect the patients in the local COVID-19 wards.

    There are better treatments, primarily monoclonal antibody infusion EARLY in an individual case. Delay and it is too late to 'speed bump' the virus load.

    Personal responsibility, what COVID-19 does in practice, not some false, personal libertarian theory.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    big deal in the local news the last week or so. outbreak in provincetown on cape cod. 3,000 peranent residents, 60,000 seasonal residents. 132 cases 2 weeks after july fourth.
    mask requirements reimplemented, boston asking anyone who visited to get tested and quarantine, but no data on hospitalizations.
    one video of a guy who had a sore throat and a cough
     
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