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Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.
hmm, now someone is going to have to produce the sources of the numbers
For population, I used Population of WORLD 1957 - PopulationPyramid.net
For death totals, the CDC has those for the 1918, 1957, 1968, & 2009 flu pandemics Past Pandemics | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC
thank you, let's see what tc comes up with.
are you sure your don't have to worry ? I thought the whole point was to worry.
For our purposes, @Moving Right Along seems to have the goods.
For all old-time pandemics, accuracy is very uncertain. Estimates for 1918 &1919 range from 20 to 50 million. I sat down in the middle at 35.
It has been pointed out many times here that the current pandemic stats both vary in accuracy across nations, and that some may be intentionally lowballing .
One may appeal to the Central Limit Theorem that highballs and lowballs cancel each other out, but no guarantee is available.
Medieval Euro-plagues left the clearest ecological footprints in my view. Agricultural land reverted to forests, global CO2 went down, and less lead from metal smelting landed in sediments where people find such things to measure.
The depopulation of Americas by diseases brought by European 'Encounter' could be added to list, but reports of that vary enormously.
For body count (not % of total population) here is one source:
The 10 Worst Epidemics In History - WorldAtlas
It ranks 1957/1958 higher than CDC, and includes additional events.
May not need to be repeated that difference between epidemic and pandemic is global reach, not size. Modern global transport is much different from wind-driven wooden hulls, continuously nibbled by shipworms.
Well, the spread of the outbreak has been contained because of the fast and strict lockdown. 4 new cases to date I believe, all in quarantine lockdown while contagious, where NSW has had steady increasing outbreak numbers each day and the area affected growing day by date.
For those interested, here is the state govts "dashboard" display of how things are travelling Dashboard | SA.GOV.AU: COVID-19 It appear the lockdown might be over after only 7 days, NSW has now had 5 weeks of areas locked down and the locked down spread is growing rapidly along with infection rate.
In short, lock downs, strict mask rules and check in rules to each establishment visited works, the figures prove it so there really is no denying the facts no matter what your beliefs are ...... the citizens need to be still alive and healthy enough to return to work for the economy to recover, a short sharp shock seems to be the best strategy looking at these figures ..... Just putting it out there
That January report used just partial 2020 figures. A still-provisional update including the full year is now available:
Seattle Times / AP: US life expectancy in 2020 saw biggest drop since WWII
CNN: US life expectancy falls by more than a year due to Covid-19 pandemic, CDC study says
Short form --
US life expectancy declined from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020
Covid-19 deaths caused about 3/4th of the decline, but unintentional injuries, homicide, diabetes and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis also contributed. Reductions in deaths from cancer, chronic lower respiratory diseases, heart disease, suicide and certain perinatal conditions, partially offset the increases.
Life expectancies fell by 3.0 years for Hispanics, 2.9 years for Blacks, 1.2 years for Whites.
Life expectancies fell by 1.8 years for males, 1.2 years for females.
WWII caused a 3 year drop between 1942 and 1943, in part because premature deaths of young people (soldiers) have a larger impact on the statistical calculation than premature deaths of old people (covid).
For Blacks, this is the worst drop since the mid-1930s, the Great Depression. Hispanics have not been separately tracked for nearly as long.
For the overall population, the drop from 1917 to 1918 was much worse still, from the combined effects of WWI and the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.
I found my previous reply on this:
"HIPAA and Proof of Vaccine Status
"Vaccination information is classed as PHI and is covered by the HIPAA Rules. However, HIPAA only applies to HIPAA-covered entities – healthcare providers, health plans, and healthcare clearinghouses – and their business associates. If an employer asks an employee to provide proof that they have been vaccinated in order to allow that individual to work without wearing a facemask, that is not a HIPAA violation as HIPAA does not apply to most employers." "
In my son's case...he just works with some pretty dense people who are falling into the 'vaccine bad' propaganda. It drives him nuts...but it is like talking to a brick wall with these types. Part of the reason he is the only one still wearing a mask...even though he IS vaccinated.
I went aboard a dot.mil facility yesterday thinking I was going to have to wear a mask for the first time in a month - but for now either the EO has been amended or the base commander isn't enforcing.
MY company (Big Bell) invites employees to document their vaccinations to be absolved of the lawyer-rules such as masks, hexapod requirements, thermal monitoring etc.
Since we're allowed up to 8 hours (4x2) of personal time to get the jab it would be a VERY UNWISE EMPLOYEE who would double down on stupid by NOT getting vaccinated AND fraudulently claiming to have done so.......
....but then, we're not talking about the 'thinkers' in the crowd, ARE we?
Yeah, but the problem is:
Your Enemy gets a vote, and the world hasn't yet been unified by a global government.
Also Figures DON'T lie, but liars DO figure.
In pandemics, or actions taken to PREVENT pandemics the rule seems to be "go ugly early."
Historical example I've used several times over the last 19 months:
1972 Yugoslav smallpox outbreak - Wikipedia
That's a very ironic example given the fact that a Commie government actually used the ONE benefit of Communism (can't just say "no") to prevent a local outbreak from going turbo.....while Covid-19 (some say) was caused by another Commie government that permitted a local outbreak to go global because of Communism's fatal flaw:
People lie, and their bosses don't want to hear bad news.
We have 52 states, and some of these NAILED the "go Ugly" part, but none of them really got that 'right balance' of 'short, sharp, shock' to benefit from the "early" part.
Unfortunately, we also cannot use our military to enforce borders to keep the unwashed, uneducated, and disadvantaged from traveling between our states - so even if you 'lock down early, lock down often' you're still getting slimed from all of those 'funny talking feriners' from places like Massachusetts, Oregon, etc.
Also, we in the US have a VERY curious definition of "essential worker."
Some of our people would be VERY content to stay "locked down" for months and months and months while the "little people" bring them their Amazon packages and Uber Eats.
People are funny like that....
out of 1,763 new covid cases in tokyo, only 137 at the olympics. not too bad, looks like they're doing a good job containing things.
well, that was way easier to read than I expected. thank you !
1 good thing propaganda is always in use by the other side (not mine!), and believed by the other sides dullards.
oops, wait a second. lol
2 wait, if the face muzzle works, but the vax doesn't... nope that's not it... if the vax works but the face muzzle doesn't... nope that's not it either... I'm too slow to understand this part I guess. when does one of these mean the other is no longer needed again ?
two weeks ?
3 cool. he can't spread it to others then !
dang, wait, that's not right either.
this propaganda is so hard to keep up with. I knew I was slow, but this is just a mind bender. or washer. or rinser. I just can't be sure of any of the info.
I said "dense people" for a reason...Your response seems to imply you are in that camp. This stuff is NOT hard to understand...or are you playing the devil's advocate...or just being 'contrarian'? Excuse my demeanor...but this current covid wave is squarely on the shoulders of dip&*its that didn't get vaccinated. And it pisses me off....
If you are an essential worker...I sure as heck would hope you did get vaccinated...and did it early. They *were* generally available for those workers before most others ( that's how my son got his ). If not..see reply #4196...haha.
Whether or not I'm an "essential" worker is very debatable, but I do have paperwork indicating that I am technically in that group if we are to ever have a real lockdown in this country (think Italy, some months back.)
Anyone who has ever been in a post-natural disaster scenario knows the drill.
You're either "part of the solution" or you're a looter.
Looters get treated VEEEEERY differently than utility workers....again, during a REAL lockdown.
SOME municipalities are a little more lenient.
Since I happen to know math at a greater than 6th grade level, and since I have no known vaccination sensitivities, it was a no-brainer.
I made my appointment in the same hour that their availability was announced, without pushing somebody else out of line.
I didn't play the "essential" card because, again....I have at least a sixth-grade knowledge of how math works.
The "A" virus has a case fatality rate of about 2 percent for humans generally and a lot less for people in my cohort and overall health.
AFTER people who were at much greater risk than myself had a chance to get theirs, I got the Pfizer shots with very little in the way of discomfort or side effects.
I documented my vaccination status with my employer without falsifying the card so that (a) I don't get fired for showing two hours of time off to get the second shot and (2) so that I can enjoy not wearing a mask(**) avoiding people like they're lepers, etc...
it's none of my business what your health status is. while I may poke fun at all the inconsistencies of today's "science" , i don't consider it any of my business what you do.
I do ask questions that get people mad, but they're interned to drive logical thought, not drive anger.
I think it's the questioning if the provide info, believing that into, and then having three logic of that believed info questioned that gets people in a hissy. I'd rather theny think and converse than shut down and stew.
A local newspaper ran a convenient primer today:
What HIPAA is and is not: A primer on the healthcare privacy law
"If you’re being interviewed and a journalist asks you if you’re vaccinated, is that a violation of HIPAA?
What if your employer is asking you to prove you’ve been vaccinated — is that a HIPAA issue?
What if you go to a bar or restaurant or store and a person at the front door says you need to show proof of vaccination to enter? Are they violating your HIPAA rights?
HIPAA — short for the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 — only covers what information specific healthcare-related entities can share about you without your consent. A journalist doing a televised interview or a post-game news conference is not one of them. Neither is your employer or your school. Neither is the bouncer at one of the bars in Los Angeles requiring proof of vaccination to enter. ...
So what would be a HIPAA violation? Hypothetically speaking, something like if your doctor’s office published a list on its website of every patient and which vaccines they’d received. Or if your employer called your doctor and asked whether you were vaccinated and the doctor’s office told them without your consent. It would have to be a scenario in which a specific healthcare provider or related business or entity was sharing your private medical information without you consenting to it being shared. It is not a legal shield that prevents anyone from asking you if you’ve been vaccinated against COVID-19.
If someone asks whether you’re vaccinated and you don’t want to tell them, you don’t have to. But their asking does not violate your rights under HIPAA. And in response, that person can choose not to employ you or let you come in and grab a drink. Americans enjoy many rights, but entry to happy hour is not one of them."