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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    workers who attended boston biogen meeting test positive for covid
     
    #501 bisco, Mar 5, 2020
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    plymouth, ma students and chaperones who went to milan over february vacation in quarantine after one student shows symptoms and testing is being done.

    unfortunately, all involved have been mixing with the community since their return
     
    #502 bisco, Mar 5, 2020
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    hoda kotb of 'good morning america' returns from orlando to new york with the flu. she had a flu shot, bot no mention of covid test (n)
     
    #503 bisco, Mar 5, 2020
  4. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    Plastic bag over your head?
    Clear bag, of course, so you can still see.
    Maybe some air holes.

    Mike
     
    #504 3PriusMike, Mar 5, 2020
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  5. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    At this point why would it matter if it was a bat or a snake?
    How would it change our response?

    Mike
     
    #505 3PriusMike, Mar 5, 2020
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'd stop eating one or the other...
     
    #506 bisco, Mar 5, 2020
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  7. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Multiple named channels vs. single random anonymous person on Internet. Right, no contest.
     
    #507 fuzzy1, Mar 5, 2020
  8. mjoo

    mjoo Senior Member

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    I can never give up bat meat. It gives me superpowers

    Pixel XL ?
     
    #508 mjoo, Mar 5, 2020
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  9. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    #509 Prodigyplace, Mar 5, 2020
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  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    In new issue of Science magazine:

    With $115 million, more than 80 Boston researchers will collaborate to tackle COVID-19 | Science | AAAS

    Can China's COVID-19 strategy work elsewhere? | Science

    ==
    I developed estimate of about 1.5%fatality from South Korea data in WHO sitreps 32 through 44. Those data are diagnosed case numbers and deaths. As this thing takes some time to kill, today's case number is not necessarily the correct number to divide by. Some earlier day's total is, but unclear which one.

    So, I calculated them all. Dividing by current day case number, and previous day, and day before that, all the way back. This yields many estimates with no way of know which is more realistic. So line them up and report the median value.

    This is similar in concept to Monte Carlo and boot strapping. It is not necessarily something a real epidemiologist would do.

    With accurate records of each case, date of confirmation test and date of death, one could do better. It would still not be 'the number' because that can only be calculated from an outbreak after it ends. Meanwhile, one does what one can.

    I would tentatively accept 1.5 (ish) % for highly aggressive and capable medical responses. 4 (ish) % where additional difficulties present themselves. Such as overwhelmed medical responses, incomplete testing, and a fleet of lungs somewhat impaired by chronic air pollution.

    Moving forward into other countries, both extremes may present themselves here and there.
     
    #510 tochatihu, Mar 5, 2020
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  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    warm countries@485. This is a very important matter to consider. However world outside China is still very much at front end and I do not think we can yet draw conclusions. Surely this will be addressed after firefighter
     
    #511 tochatihu, Mar 5, 2020
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    From WHO sitrep 45
    "Five new countries/territories/areas (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Gibraltar, Hungary, Slovenia, and occupied Palestinian territory) have reported cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours."
    143 new cases in China, 2098 elsewhere.
     
    #512 tochatihu, Mar 5, 2020
  13. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    More on a possible animal source, bats vs snakes vs still-TBD:

    The conspiracy theories about the origins of the coronavirus, debunked

    "Soon after the Chinese government acknowledged there was an outbreak of a mysterious new virus in late December in Wuhan, scientists raced to sequence its genome. By mid-January, they had it and shared it with the World Health Organization.

    Soon after that, scientists saw that the virus closely resembled viruses that circulate in bats. “If you look at the genetic sequence of the virus, it’s closely related to a bat virus, about 96 percent the same,” Jim LeDuc, head of the Galveston National Laboratory, a level 4 biosafety lab in Texas, told Vox. “There’s been talk about a pangolin intermediate host; that’s probably not true.”

    Chinese officials also reported that several of the first cluster of cases had ties to a live animal market where both seafood and other wildlife were sold as food. (The market has since been closed.) The market soon became the leading hypothesis for how the virus made the leap into humans, where it’s been able to spread efficiently ever since.

    The genetic evidence and epidemiological information, according to three esteemed infectious disease researchers writing in the New England Journal of Medicine, “implicates a bat-origin virus infecting unidentified animal species sold in China’s live-animal markets.”

    According to a genome analysis by Tanja Stadler from the Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering at ETH Zurich in Basel, the virus first began transmitting in humans in China as early as the first half of November 2019."
     
    #513 fuzzy1, Mar 5, 2020
  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    How about this:
    Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

    232 in the U.S. at this moment, much more than the 150 mentioned by VP Pence in his & Gov. Inslee's Seattle news conference going on right now.
     
    #514 fuzzy1, Mar 5, 2020
  15. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    I'll be upset if all these people die (including me) and nobody posts the damn recipe that made it all worthwhile.
     
    #515 Leadfoot J. McCoalroller, Mar 5, 2020
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  16. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    Yes, confirming that this is the same dashboard that was previously linked and lost. Thanks for finding a new tap!
     
    #516 Leadfoot J. McCoalroller, Mar 5, 2020
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  17. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    How can you tell the difference?
    Don't they both just taste like chicken?

    Mike
     
    #517 3PriusMike, Mar 5, 2020
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  18. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    We'll have to see how long it lasts. If a news reporter spilled the beans on an unpublished link, it might not last either.
     
    #518 fuzzy1, Mar 5, 2020
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  19. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The bats are striking back over that fungus.
     
    #519 Trollbait, Mar 5, 2020
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  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    leonardo dicaprio recommends neosporin on q tips for treating the nasel passages
     
    #520 bisco, Mar 5, 2020
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