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Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.
Not a problem in Japan.
now i KNOW this disease has become serious;
Waffle House closing more than 350 diners :: WRAL.com
on the other hand - just closing them any ol' time might save lives.
We are facing a Cat 5 Coronacane across the country by this index.
Mostly in Yankee country....but there are a few (I'm told) in "half-back" country...or North Carolina.
According to a station in Georgia, where Waffle House is based, the 24-hour chain is famous for disaster preparedness -- so much so that emergency officials have incorporated Waffle House's ability to serve food in its measure of a disaster....as mentioned above.
I passed by one of my small town's two Waffle Houses just yesterday that had a hand-painted sign indicating that they were open 24x7.....
This is a non-trivial thing for a telecom worker in a part of the country where 24 hour eateries are somewhat limited by the current pandemic.
Like I said...we have 2 in our town and I nearly never eat at them.....but that may change.....especially if our 24x7 Doughnut shop goes under.....
gota give prof's tho - to the Volunteer state - they & Kentucky are holding fast, with very few closures.
I'd imagine the open spots are all checked for health, wearing masks gloves etc.
none around here that i'm aware of, but plenty south of dc
reuters: 'u-turn, just as china begins to reopen factories and bring back workers, order cancellations prompt immediate layoffs'
When we perform a play in town, by the time I leave nothing else is open. So i tend to eat at WH 20 times a year. They are the best (and only) place to eat in after 10 PM.
Italy had a bad day today, more than 6200 new cases. But the U.S. still surpassed it, and is breathing down China's neck now:
It has happened now.
We're Number One!!
For death toll, we are still a ways back at #6, and that doesn't look like it will change for a while. Italy, Spain, and France are dying 2X-4X faster than us (not adjusted of population size differences) and widening their leads. Iran is going the same speed as us, but with a wide lead. China has few new deaths, but still a huge lead.
A race we didn't want to win.
Scored a 6-pack of TP today at Trader Joe's. Middle of the day, 3 more on the shelf. Line outside about 10 minutes, 20 customers allowed inside at once.
As of WHO sitrep 66, both Italy and Switzerland have had 4 days with new cases below previous peak. Either or both could have later increase and invalidate this earlier inflection point. If they do not, Europe will have some important milestones to analyze.
Gompertz functions for both suggest inflection points are yet to come:
I prefer substances that work. But if you want expensive, I just got some exosomes. Supposed to shift my epigenetic expression of my genome toward that of an infant. Faster healing, more effective immune system. Or maybe nothing like the disclaimer I signed.
Do you have any good references/explainers on the Gompertz function?
I've been thinking about more sophisticated ways to plot the U.S. state data so that after we hit the inflection point, we can infer how long we'd expect new infections to show up (i.e. how long do we still need to lockdown/social distance). Can the Gompertz function predict that?
I doubt that Covid-19 would have any effect on isolated ships. The whole crew could test positive, yet most would only know they were sick because someone told them. These aren't the elderly rest home folk with multiple medical problems.
Just keep them at sea until they won't transmit their virus to less vital elders.
And I'll bet that the submarine people get vitamin D supplements. Either that or tanning beds...
i like the website. i wish it had a 'tests performed' column
Gompertz function @1115
The use of Gompertz models in growth analyses, and new Gompertz-model approach: An addition to the Unified-Richards family
There are many models with different math details that generate functions of the general shape 'grow slow, grow fast, grow slow'
Two examples I linked @1113 are actually its first derivative; Gompertz would be the cumulative.
To say again, all such models are normally used to describe completed phenomena. To predict while underway may be unreliable. I don't think much at all can be predicted until the inflection point arrives and is not later replaced.
In both China and South Korea, inflection points happened at about 1/3 of final case totals (although both of those are still slowly increasing and not really final). Other countries may or may not follow that pattern.
My concern is how long serious policy measures to limit infectious transfer happen before inflection points. This is still hazy because lockdowns are usually emplaced in stages. But an optimistic guess would be 2 to 3 weeks.
@noonm asked about Gompertz to indicate how long lockdowns would be needed (or effective). I don't think it has a unique role there. Lockdowns might not be needed after new infections become few. That's daily data not a model.
Interestingly, Wuhan city is performing that experiment currently. They have ended lockdown and we'll see how that develops.
Concerning policy measures to limit infectious transfer:
Singapore modelling study estimates impact of physical distancing on reducing spread of COVID-19 -- ScienceDaily
Based on existing figures here, I very strongly doubt that any large military ship could avoid the illness problem.
On land, young adults and middle aged people are being hospitalized at similar rates to old folks. They just are not dying at similar rates.