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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. George W

    George W Active Member

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    Early in this thread a point was made that Covid-19 was nowhere near the threat that Influenza or the Flu is.

    How does that point stack up now?
     
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    For my part, in February, I was operating under an assumption that has since been blown away.

    Compare Hubei Province to the rest of China. Former was trashed, and the other > 1 billion people only lightly hit. I assumed that such policy interventions would happen elsewhere, when and where cases were detected.

    It has not gone that way. Not well enough or widely enough. Now, COVID's carriers are both many more and very widely distributed.

    I don't know what (widespread) actions now could push down the worst anticipations of modelers. Much depends on therapeutic medicines now being tested.
     
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  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    "Those Gompertz curve fits seem very sensitive" @noonm @1126

    Where the drawn curve is constrained by data far below 'where it's headed', this is so. See for example the current Spain curve (right hand column) on

    COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People
    https://elm.nsupdate.info/virus/infectionsbycountry-219.png

    More days of data could change that curve a lot. In contrast, Italy's peak of new daily cases:
    https://elm.nsupdate.info/virus/infectionsbycountry-155.png

    Seems pretty much locked in.

    ==
     
  4. mjoo

    mjoo Senior Member

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    With the near absence of testing I wouldn't be surprised if peak was Mother's day.

    Pixel XL ?
     
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I'm about 66% convinced, an interesting approach: United Biomedical Group’s C19 Company Partners With San Miguel County, Colorado To Be First In Nation To Test An Entire County For COVID-19 With New Antibody Diagnostic Test — Telluride Medical Center

    UBI’s c19 has developed a high-precision antibody blood diagnostic test that has been validated in China, Taiwan and California labs and has virtually 100% sensitivity and specificity in patients who have developed antibodies against the virus (seroconverted). The tests are manufactured in Long Island, N.Y. and can differentiate between COVID-19 and other coronaviruses (e.g., HKU1 and NL63). Results can be obtained within a couple hours. . . .

    I would really like to see an A-B-A and double blind test of the effectiveness and accuracy. Still, chemically identification of an antibody appears to be relatively straight forward and likely, accurate.

    Bob Wilson
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    they're still struggling in china, trying to figure out why people are testing negative, then positive
     
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Tests based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are never trivial.

    If you weren't retired :) and universities in Boston area would let you in, I think you'd be amazed by underlying principles of PCR.

    I was :) and the kids don't let me touch things.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    "A sufficiently advanced science will appear to be magic to the less sophisticated."

    I stopped with inorganic chemistry which remains a wonderful field. As for organic chemistry, it truly is amazing and I don't try to fake it. Still, the blood test for antibodies makes a lot of sense as a 'short cut.'

    Combine a selective, anti-body, attachment, enzyme with a photo responsive compound and voila, you've got an assay for mass surveys in a fairly short time. You don't have to bind to the virus external plasmid but let the body multiply the much larger volumes of antibodies.

    Did I get it significantly wrong?

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1149 bwilson4web, Mar 27, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
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  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Sentence containing 'voila' is a fine entry to the world of ELISA.

    COVIDians (ill, recovered or recently dead) will have antibodies in blood. Since heart and valves generate turbulence in a closed flowpath, antibodies will be well mixed. This means even small quantities of extracted blood will have them.

    Choosing the right piece of antibody to clamp on to is a critical part. Peptide ultra purity is a critical part. After that, manufacture and test protocols are quite robotic. Bob or I could run them. Bisco is retired :)

    You can already buy COVID-19 ELISA from some German company and probably others. Your phone call will probably be 'on hold' for a long time. Now UBG and probably others will join in.

    Validation testing is probably also as Bob described. Unless you are in Antarctica, you have access to known positives.

    From the 'customer' side, I'd rather lose some blood than have the depths of my sinuses swabbed.

    In summary there will probably be a lot of this testing done starting in a few weeks. Ideally it will also be used in surveillance mode to identify populations that can appropriately relax social distancing. That is crucial need outside of hospitals. Inside them, crucial needs are well known.

    ==
    Dang! This thread has really changed since late January. Seems like the world has.

    ==
    ELISA testing is why blood transfusions can be known to be safe from several notable diseases. Look to see what donors have been fighting against lately. Blood transfusions are in a sorry state now though, because of world change.
     
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  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Title of this thread no longer includes "Wuhan" -- at my request. Started in late January when there was hope for local limitation, and Wuhan would have been a sensible description.

    COVID-19 is now global, and Wuhan (even Hubei) matter most as tests of new relaxed social-distance policies.

    Anyone seeing Wuhan as racist initially, or now removing it as cowardly by me, ought to start a separate thread. I'll respond there. I ask that we keep this long thread (sorta kinda) focused on this disease and responses to it.

    Few (no?) other environmental matters could be seen as having such impacts at sub-decade time scales. That seems really weird.

    I am grateful to all posters who have made this thread more than I could. Keep it coming.

    ==
    That sounds like a self obituary? No such luck Bwahaha.
     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: FAQs on Diagnostic Testing for SARS-CoV-2 | FDA

    This page provides answers to frequently asked questions relating to the development and performance of diagnostic tests for SARS-CoV-2.

    The page includes questions and answers regarding the new policy outlined in the Immediately in Effect Guidance for Clinical Laboratories, Commercial Manufacturers, and Food and Drug Administration Staff: Policy for Diagnostic Tests for Coronavirus Disease-2019 during the Public Health Emergency, originally introduced as Immediately in Effect Guidance for Clinical Laboratories and Food and Drug Administration Staff: Policy for Diagnostic Tests in Laboratories Certified to Perform High Complexity Testing under CLIA prior to Emergency Use Authorization for Coronavirus Disease-2019 during the Public Health Emergency on February 29th, 2020 and updated on March 16, 2020. On this page, this guidance is referred to as the Policy for Diagnostic Tests for Coronavirus Disease-2019.
    . . .

    This is important because the accuracy of these tests is not as rigorously quantified as we would normally prefer. But we're in a race between the tests and a virus that has high transmission rates. Sure enough, there are two technical approaches:
    • detect the SARS-CoV-2
    • detect antibodies to SARS-CoV-2
    IMHO, both are important with my preference for an affordable, universal antibody test to identify those who are asymptomatic AND those recovered. For a clinician, the SARS-CoV-2 is more important but combined with the antibody test, a confirmation.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1153 bwilson4web, Mar 28, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2020
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  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    'head of the massachusetts department of health tests positive'

    she was the one telling ma health professionals it was no big deal back in early march
     
    #1154 bisco, Mar 28, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2020
  14. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Patients with +SARS-CoV-2 by PCR and clinical infection followed by clinical recovery and -SARS-CoV-2 by PCR would also be useful epidemiologically and help with calibrating results of IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2.
     
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  15. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    Just a guess.
    Maybe they are negative and then get infected?

    Mike
     
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  16. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    Or maybe another reason that is reserved for another thread in another corner of Prius Chat:whistle:.
     
  17. RobH

    RobH Senior Member

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    A crusty old guy in UK thinks Covid is way overblown.

     
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    he's just repeating what has been said here over 1,159 posts. tl:dr, but does he address the overwhelmed hospitals without enough personnel, beds, and equipment? why are very intelligent professionals wearing hazmat suits to treat patients? do they do that for the ordinary common garden flu?
     
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  19. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    When I was a lad we fought off novel zoonotic viruses one-handed. If we complained we were sent to bed without dinner.

    Kids these days.
     
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