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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    back to work?
    the aerospace union just requested volunteers from our group of 450+ to report to work next Sunday - here in SoCal. Top 12 qualified made the list. You can't let a Boing777 just sit in place w/out its own mass doing possible harm. Same holds true with MOST heavy equipment. Heck - even true w/ people. Gosh - looks like the honey-do's will will have to wait.

    .
     
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I know but sometimes a story can sound 'too good to be true.' As we've moved to self-selected, news sources, we have lost the fact-checkers that would separate factual from faux. So I don't subscribe to the New York Times, Washington Post, or Wall Street Journal because in 2016 they showed themselves to be less than factual. Breitbart, FOX, and OANN are worse, shoot-on-sight. So choose your sources carefully not because 'never said it was gospel' but to preserve your personal credibility. For example, I've had to 'ignore user' l_itesong, R_obH, and s_piderman because their postings:

    Protect your credibility as this is not a list anyone should wish to join.

    Bob Wilson
     
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    "we have lost the fact-checkers that would separate factual from faux. I do not agree.

    ==
    It might be time to begin comparisons with earlier pandemics. 2009 H1N1 took about 12.5 thousand in US and 100 to 400 thousand globally. Other comparisons might get posted later.

    COVID-19 will take 41 thousands or more in US, and perhaps less than 200 thousand globally. In a global sense, every damn pandemic that pops up might get into 'hundred thousand' territory. Global 'by cause' morbidity recording is not well refined.

    In US, this one is both large and small compared to several other causes of death. Allowing space for up or down spinning as might seem required. But without any doubt it has flexed direct medical work, their supply and analytical support chains, and not least THE ECONOMY.

    No one studying new zoonotic disease arrivals expects this to be more disruptive than all in future. So, aside from all COVID-19 fatalities, this is a chance to rehearse.

    Because we will re-hearse, and take out our dead again.

    Could any responses to date be better tuned for future bad boys? That will (would) be some payoff from all the losses this time around.
     
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  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    interesting to re read the timeline here. looks like this date (02/29/20) is about when public health officials began warning the powers that be.
     
  5. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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  6. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    "li wenliang, the 34 year old ophthalmologist who first reported the disease, died after receiving antibodies, antivirals, antibiotics, oxygen and having his blood pumped through an artificial lung."

    Note that this now-famous Chinese doctor died on February 7.

    The first school closure in my area was Feb 27. Other school closures started very rapidly from there, though didn't become county-wide until 12 days later.
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    well, you folks got hit first, no?
     
  8. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Yes, we were first, making us more acutely aware of federal absences, interference, denial, lack of preparation, and dismantling of previous preparations.

    Not that local response was ideal either.

    Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.
     
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    agreed, it's been a fiasco from every corner. but i don't want to get into the politics in this thread.
     
  10. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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    An interesting timeline:
    [​IMG]
     
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i think they can go even faster if they get more testing.
     
  12. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    wonder what % of your area would go hysterical if your govener would have immediately locked down the state. Hindsight: it's like armchair quarterbacking.
    .
     
  13. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    You don't need hindsight. People just need to open their eyes to what has already happened elsewhere.
    The trick is, they have to do so with clarity and reason, not hyperbole and spin.
     
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  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    I deny that criticizing the dismantling of prior federal response teams and disease surveillance programs and ignoring the outcomes of deliberate practice exercises, followed by 'nobody ever thought this could happen', amount to armchair quarterbacking. It is pointing out the recent abandonment of previous preparedness.

    Similar applies to the early federal prohibition on local virus testing using NIH(*) tests.

    (*) NIH: Not Invented Here
     
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  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Of countries where final cases totals can be predicted with some confidence by Gompertz models, I used their latest (Worldmeter) populations to calculate incidence rates as cases per million population. The following countries (will probably) have higher incidence rates than Hubei Province of China:

    Andorra, Austria, Canada, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Luxembourg, Nederland, Norway, Portugal, San Marino. Spain, Swiss, UK, USA.

    ( a shorter list of those already 'ahead' is available)

    Those values range from >10,000 in San Marino :eek: to Cyprus' 1193 beating Hubei's 1092, I am well aware that China's reporting is not trusted by all readers. But on the possibility that they are accurate, it is not comforting that so many including large countries are 'ahead'. I suggest that things can be learned for future novel zoonotic outbreaks.

    On the low side, again recognizing questions of data accuracy, China outside of Hubei has incidence of 13 cases per million. Of other Gompertz-called countries, only Kenya, Nigeria and Sri Lanka are lower.

    ==
    From Yunnan where lockdown, monitoring and distancing measures are easing off, I sincerely wish this had gone better elsewhere.
     
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  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'm not sure free countries can accomplish what china 'might' have done.
     
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  17. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    'Nother nice planet on the map, for anybody who'd like to visit a place where every last piece of replicating chemistry that exists there, if any, will be 100% novel to your immune system.

    Of course it also won't be adapted to invade you, right away. So, there's that.
     
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    nothing would surprise me. long term health ramifications are an unknown concern at this point. and like everything else, probably varies patient by patient.
     
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    read a couple interesting stories about these emco machines that filter your blood instead of letting your lungs do it.
    a few interesting success stories out of arizona and seattle, for people on the verge of death.