1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,045
    3,528
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    An alternate view of COVID-19 is that it strikes elder-care facilities first and blossoms out from them.

    Probably that could be viewed less capriciously than elder-care facilities being magnetically attractive as trailer parks are to tornadoes. Should have initially high fatality rates (elders with co morbidities or just out of warranty), and later lower. Does not fit observations well. Needs drilling down.

    US' fatality rate increase (first one I noticed) is smaller than several other countries.
     
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    108,658
    49,371
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    many (most?) US long term facilities are for profit businesses,run on a tight budget, charging enormous fees, being subsidized by government, and prociding substandard care in the best of times.

    they were (are) not equipped to handle an epidemic. the staff are poorly trained lay people (many alcoholics and drug users) who live in tightly packed immigrant communities also having a higher than average case rate. with a nurse here and there and a doctor who visits several facilities.

    they do not have access to ppe or testing, cannot social distance in the setting, and once the virus gets in, they are done for.

    with years of experience taking care of two elderly parents, that is what i have seen first hand
     
    Robert Holt and tochatihu like this.
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,045
    3,528
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    My experience was similar, also mentioning that if you want to know what staff gossips about, you need to understand Tagalog.

    A darker interpretation is that elders are often well-hidden from the street. But over time, with sufficiently loose policies for public lung interactions, elders eventually get netted.
     
    #1863 tochatihu, May 2, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: May 5, 2020
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    108,658
    49,371
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    'asian giant hornets sighted in US', probably should be in environmental, but seemed appropriate timing :cool:
     
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,045
    3,528
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Those things are absurd. Should have stayed in Permian Park (long before Jurassic Park) where they belong. I always notice, but fail to buy, in 'high-diversity' markets around here.:eek:

    Y'know how 'nice' bees kill them, yes?

    =
    Not only having mischspelt Jurassic, I placed (any) bees in Permian which in a proper chat would have left me severely stung. But not here :)

    Since I'm distracting, my hovercraft is full of eels.

    Will undistract with an exhalation on fatality rates, any hour now.
     
    #1865 tochatihu, May 2, 2020
    Last edited: May 2, 2020
  6. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    17,302
    10,149
    90
    Location:
    Western Washington
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Do you mean the 'group hug' to hyperthermia? Where the little bees can tolerate a higher body temperature than can the giant hornets?
     
    tochatihu likes this.
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,045
    3,528
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    I do indeed. Thermal cameras. As Tyrannosaurus apis is now stateside, we must hope that (made) docile nectar gatherers are still up for a bit o' mass suicide.

    As are ... oh never mind.
     
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,045
    3,528
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Hubei Province China, area of origin, had 6.6% fatality rate overall. By every indication they were swamped and might have had lower from a gentler wave.

    All other Chinese Provinces had 0.8% fatality rate overall. Data below could certainly lead folks to suspect under counting.

    S. Korea, next contestant, had early fatality rate 1.2% increasing to 2.2% recently. They had a very sharp case-incidence dynamic, apparently within system capacity, and that they are (at least regionally) a medical tourism destination. Not amateurs.

    Europe planted its flag in Italy. Started with 7 to 8% fatality rate increasing to >14% recently. Italy added clarity to ideas of risk to elderly, and to health-care workers w/o regard to age.

    Consider Switzerland, coming out of the gate with 1.7% and recently 4.1%. We’re talking about Swiss here. They make fine chronometers .. and ventilators.

    Other Euro countries I've 'done' also increase fatality rates through time.

    Consider high-tech Japan. Early 3.3% and most recently 2.7%. If there are other countries with decreasing fatality rates, my incomplete analysis of 103 WHO sitreps has not found them.

    Take it home. US started with 4.9% and newest 5.7% fatality. It was first increase I saw, and in global context it may seem small. But with more case numbers than any country, any real increase means more deaths than one would want to think about.

    ==
    There are now almost 50 countries reporting to WHO > 5000 cases (arbitrary cutoff for analysis) and I won’t run them all. But maybe enough for someone to examine the 'where and why' of changing fatality rates.

    Case numbers are getting under control, but fatality rates are going the wrong way. It would be good to know much more about this phase of novel zoonotic infections, because there will be more, and we’ll never have therapeutics and vaccines as soon and as much as desired.
     
    #1868 tochatihu, May 2, 2020
    Last edited: May 2, 2020
    Robert Holt likes this.
  9. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    17,302
    10,149
    90
    Location:
    Western Washington
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    My impression was that this is not suicidal for the honeybees. Or does this depend on the variety, such as Japanese vs Asian?

    Here is an old NPR article, with a cartoon sequence that I remember from some time back (though I likely saw it more recently than its publication date). They called it "murdersquishing". The Japanese giant hornet can live to 46C, the Japanese honeybees can survive 50C, so they heat their hot "murdersquish" ball to 47C to roast the hornet.

    'Murdersquishing' Them To Death: How Little Bees Take On Enormous Hornets : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR
     
    Robert Holt likes this.
  10. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    17,302
    10,149
    90
    Location:
    Western Washington
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Some interesting all-cause death rate charts. These help spot excess deaths, which may be helpful in retrospective independent estimates of this outbreak's casualties. Excess deaths will be from a mix of various reasons, some from unreported virus cases, some from collateral issues such as unrelated conditions in which patients couldn't get or stayed away from or delayed necessary treatment, some from activity changes such as fewer traffic and industrial accidents, etc. Unraveling the factors won't be easy and may not have consensus.


    CDC-NVSS: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
    Beware that it takes quite variable amounts of time for the many jurisdictions to file their reports. Thus the most recent weeks are always short, and will grow later as more local reports are included.

    upload_2020-5-2_23-1-0.png

    NYT: N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests

    upload_2020-5-2_23-12-43.png

    NYT: 46,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Outbreak

    upload_2020-5-2_23-14-28.png
     
  11. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2016
    11,696
    11,318
    0
    Location:
    Central Virginia
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    There are reports from New York that senior homes were required to handle any COVID or suspected themselves. Some asked for suspected infections to be transferred either to the Javitts field hospital or to the hospital ship but were denied. They were told those facilities were Onkyo for hospital use.

    if you are able to exclude those cases in elder care housing the US numbers would be much lower. In the US this is politics at its nastiest.
     
    bisco likes this.
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    108,658
    49,371
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    well, we're probably gonna find out as states reopen. that will either lead to more cases and deaths outside of the long term facilities, or it won't.
     
  13. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2008
    23,788
    15,433
    0
    Location:
    Indiana, USA
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    IV
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,368
    15,511
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Welcome to the lab, my fellow rats:
    [​IMG]

    Elon Musk has speculated that we may be living in a simulation. However, I prefer "Hitchhiker's Guide To The Universe" where mice conduct experiments on Earth I:
    [​IMG]

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1874 bwilson4web, May 3, 2020
    Last edited: May 3, 2020
    Robert Holt likes this.
  15. t_newt

    t_newt Active Member

    Joined:
    May 27, 2018
    217
    246
    0
    Location:
    94087
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    As that article mentions, only Japanese honeybees have learned that trick of 'group hugging' the hornet to death. So European honeybees could be in trouble, since entire hives can get wiped out by this 'killer hornet' (European honeybees are one of the most common bees in the US starting from when it was introduced to the US continent in the 1600s).

    If this nightmarish beast establishes a foothold in the US, maybe we should start importing the Japanese honeybees to the US too, so the bees will stand a chance at survival. Heck, it would just be one imported species augmenting another imported species.
     
    #1875 t_newt, May 3, 2020
    Last edited: May 3, 2020
  16. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2015
    10,970
    8,853
    0
    Location:
    New England
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Unfortunately, native Japanese honeybees (Apis cerana japonica) are in endangered status in Japan due to widespread of Europian honeybees (Apis mellifera) for honey production. I just did spring split on my hives.

    IMG_20200502_144531.jpg
     
    #1876 Salamander_King, May 3, 2020
    Last edited: May 3, 2020
  17. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Senior Member

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2014
    778
    514
    0
    Location:
    Outside Philly, PA
    Vehicle:
    2009 Prius
    Model:
    II
  18. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2010
    7,744
    6,540
    0
    Location:
    Redneck Riviera (Gulf South)
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
  19. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    17,302
    10,149
    90
    Location:
    Western Washington
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,045
    3,528
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    That's not what their eyes look like. Much scarier in reality. Also, four wings. However, The Oatmeal is a gem and I'll deny every saying anything bad about it.