Satellite temperature records

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jul 1, 2017.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    7,508
    2,813
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Our BobW has little use for these. While I find them to present several shortcomings, they seem a very appropriate use of satellites (that are up there anyway), and Our mojo prefers them to all surface measurements despite the matter of brevity. All others might find themselves somewhere along that continuum.

    They do require extensive processing which undergoes revision from time to time. To stay current see:

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0768.1

    RSS full-length T trend is revised to “0.174 C/decade, ~30% larger than our previous version”. This thus becomes much more similar to surface-T trends over same interval. All surface-T trends, developed by several different ‘shops’.

    No comment on this has yet appeared on Spencer’s UAH site. I gave a nudge.
     
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    23,288
    13,114
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL with 2014 BMW i3-REx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    To be precise, no one lives in the troposphere. We do live on the surface.

    Bob Wilson
     
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    7,508
    2,813
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    For both RSS and UAH, TLT is weighted from very near surface to several km above. They are most often expressed as anomalies with reference to some base period, which is reasonable. But the actual proxy Ts are something in the -20 to -30 oC range (I've forgotten). That would be a very challenging life environment. A bit warmer than Greenland summit station and more warmer than south pole. People 'live' in both places but it pretty much sucks.

    For me, most important distinction between sat-T and surface-T is wide swings in the former. This may jut be something that troposphere does, distinct from surface where there is so much thermal inertia in solids and seawater. Radiosonde-T data are similarly jumpy through time. I have suspected before that influence of different altitudes varies, especially during El Nino. But people who work on or professionally assess sat-T have not talked about that.

    This jumpiness (from whatever cause) coupled with the short record (since 1979) places severe limits on what one can do with data. Becomes more severe if one intentionally misrepresents the record by starting at an El Nino high like 1998.

    Word is now that EPA will do a red team/blue team exercise on climate studies. That, if done honestly, would stamp out 'starting at 1998'. I'd appreciate that.
     
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    23,288
    13,114
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL with 2014 BMW i3-REx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    I was thinking @mojo might have a job offer coming.

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2006
    4,519
    390
    0
    Location:
    San Francisco
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Three
    But the greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere. To be precise.
     
  6. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2006
    4,519
    390
    0
    Location:
    San Francisco
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Three
    Spencer wasn't consulted to peer review this study.Which says a lot about the sad state of peer review
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    23,288
    13,114
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL with 2014 BMW i3-REx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Having seen this administration's press briefings and interviews, it is clear they are in the business of 'telling' and not 'listening.' I don't see these teams as being anything different from any other propaganda spew.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2006
    14,940
    6,729
    0
    Location:
    eastern Pennsylvania
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    There are thousands of professionals in a given field, and thousands of papers submitted every year. About a dozen people review each paper before publication. One person not reviewing one paper means nothing.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    23,288
    13,114
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL with 2014 BMW i3-REx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    They usually cull the worst. Having submitted peer reviewed papers and reviewed papers, the smarter authors make changes as needed to clarify or add details. The final product is usually much improved.

    I've also had articles published in trade magazines and felt deeply embarrassed when seeing my poor English or an obvious grammar mistake in the published version. It is a humbling experience.

    Sure, some turkeys get through so I don't unilaterally concur with a peer reviewed paper without first reading. The serious papers, I print so I can make editorial markings (difficult on the laptop screen.) It really pisses me off when I pay for a paper only to find it full of nonsense and incomplete. Two such turkeys spring to mind, one claiming unusual pulse-and-glide performance and the other a complex analysis that the Toyota transaxle was horribly inefficient.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #9 bwilson4web, Jul 2, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2017
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    7,508
    2,813
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Spencer wasn't consulted to peer [email protected] How would we know this? Journal of Climate does anonymous peer review.

    We might bear in mind that UAH TLT in its current version has a (full-length) trend of 0.124 oC per decade. RSS is +0.174. Both have undergone revisions through time, because satellite proxy-T are not straightforward to calculate. I would be surprised if purveyors of either RSS or UAH asserted that they are in 'final form' with no future changes anticipated.
     
    #10 tochatihu, Jul 2, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2017
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    23,288
    13,114
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL with 2014 BMW i3-REx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    One problem is getting a continuous temperature record from the troposphere but there may a solution:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    These drones should be able to orbit in the troposphere giving a continuous temperature reading to help calibrate RSS.

    Bob Wilson
     
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    7,508
    2,813
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Please note that UAH v6 TLT is +0.124 oC per decade. I first wrote 0.148 ad then edited it.

    +++

    For flying machines to measure tropospheric T. one would look for heavy coverage. There are already a lot of commercial flights. Not clear we need to invoke a new set of birds for this. Instead, log inflight T with well-calibrated equipment.

    It would be a different record from satellite and surface and radiosonde. I'd not object to adding another. But I should think the main benefit would be to improve small-scale data as input to weather modeling. That is the activity crying out for such data. We have supercomputers that can do a global weather model at sub-1-km resolution, but do not know 'state variables' at that scale.

    Similar is already done with in-flight CO2 measurements, but I forgot how many airplanes do that.
     
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    7,508
    2,813
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    About a dozen people review each paper before [email protected] Not for any journal I know. Three would be luxurious; two typical. J Clim does not say on their website, but I am sure editors would answer that question if asked. J Clim published 593 articles in 2015, web site says. That is actually quite a lot. They have a long list of editors.
     
    bwilson4web likes this.
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    23,288
    13,114
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL with 2014 BMW i3-REx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    I'm thinking the payload would be:
    • microwave sensors - horizontal, up, and down to compare to the satellite metrics
    • temperature - obvious
    • mass spectrometer - to measure the chemical composition
    • optical spectral analysis - again, to measure what is available
    The ability to know exactly where each measurement was made along with the calibration offers a great way to finally have 'ground truth' of significant duration to compare to the satellite data. We call this ground truth although in this case, troposphere truth.

    I'm less enthused about aircraft metrics due to the calibration and data collection challenges. Perhaps if embedded in the aircraft transponder so the radars can capture the data ... that might work. But I don't see owners embracing this type of data collection.

    Bob Wilson
     
  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    7,508
    2,813
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    OK, seems that these new birds will be for internet relays? So they will stay over land and cover <22% of earth surface. One would want to have clear goals for 'mass spec' that is not just one thing. Often with big heavy magnet.

    Time of flight mass spec makes the magnet go away though - they are spiffy.
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    23,288
    13,114
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL with 2014 BMW i3-REx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Some negotiations about power and weight will be needed. Regardless, an internet relay also solves the data collection problem.

    About the mass spectrometer, I wonder if a 'high temperature' super conducting magnet might do since they should be fairly light weight and only need refrigeration to modest temperatures.

    Bob Wilson
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    7,508
    2,813
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    BTW, most recent radiosonde compilation seems to be 2005. They ought to crank out another. Their lowest-height T trend is closer to RSS than UAH. For whatever that may be worth. Bear in mind there are ~90 launch points. If a paucity of surface thermometers bothers you, this should bother you more.

    But they do neat things; an easy to justify use of helium, and have an added plus of being called "RATPAC".
     
    bwilson4web likes this.
  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    23,288
    13,114
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL with 2014 BMW i3-REx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Interesting thought, helium balloons in the wing structures add lift and increase capacity.

    Bob Wilson
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    7,508
    2,813
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Surface T HADCRUT4 is 0.176 oC/decade since 1970. Lack of large differences in other 'data streams' is...boring. This is +T, until/unless it substantially changes.

    Only relief from boredom comes when some poster says, any year now, a much stronger -T pattern will happen. We have heard such murmurs about since PriusChat began, though, so even that is tinged with boredom.

    Here's RATPAC:

    radiosonde T.png
     
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    7,508
    2,813
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    OK, Bob, choose: if you want birds so light that helium in wings 'helps', you can forget about flying mass specs or any other serious (heavy) instruments. I, instead, would put HD video on your birds and sell that. HD video from 20-25 km could have good resolution.
     
Loading...