1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

Science or scientists?

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Dec 7, 2014.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    8,995
    3,507
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Science is done by people, but I reckon we should focus on results rather than who said them. Often this is not the case here in PC when we discuss climate.


    Instrumental records of temperature are many and handled differently by various research groups. Perhaps surprisingly, they show very similar patterns. But to dismiss all of that by saying the name Phil Jones does not seem helpful.


    Ocean heat flux dynamics is a tough nut to crack. ARGO floats are fewer than we should want, and only present short records. To dismiss all of that by saying the name Kevin Trenberth does not seem helpful.


    Millenial-scale paleotemperatures rely on proxies that can be interpreted in different ways. There was a hockey stick at first, but now there are many other analyses. The medieval climate anomaly bump looks bigger. This will help us put current climate into context, but the proxies will always reveal less than we’d like. But to dismiss all of it by saying the name Michael Mann does not seem helpful.


    Temperature increases in the troposphere can be measured by look-down satellites, realizing that it is hard to exclude the stratosphere from the retrieved signal. These increases are less than found by thermometers at the surface. But to dismiss all of it by saying the name Roy Spencer does not seem helpful either.


    Just the same, if Christopher Monckton says something about climate you like (or don’t like), let us examine the science related to the statement, and not bother about who we think he is.


    I see discussions of the person, in lieu of the science, to slow us down. They happen across the spectrum from ‘climate is not changing’ to ‘ohmigod this will kill us all’. Other websites will do what they do, but here at PC we could hold ourselves to higher standards. Because fundamentally we are not idiots and can assess evidence based on its own merits.
     
    MJFrog and austingreen like this.
  2. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    11,627
    2,530
    8
    Location:
    Southwest Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Two
    Your life will waste away if you respond to the BS from the billions of non-scientists available.

    Which brings me to a question I've wanted to ask you for a while: why do you spend time here, rather than say at real climate.org ?
     
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,165
    15,409
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Perhaps the broader question, why do any of us spend time here?

    I bought the Prius because I hate burning gas money and even before the Prius, always have. But sad to say, environmental "green" has often been one of the broad accusation of why anyone buys a Prius. So I come to this forum for the "Readers Digest" version, just to be able to address such claims.

    This forum is also a 'honey pot' attracting those who would poison Prius discussions with useless distractions. "Freds House of Politics" is another such 'honey pot'. To the extent some of us rascals enjoy needling these visiting Prius critics, the 'honey pot' works.

    Now Doug and I have known each other since shortly after I bought our first Prius and joined various Prius forums. We both had the same model Prius and abiding curiosity about the technology. Independently, we both put 12V-to-120VAC inverters in our cars. When I saw Doug carried a small, floor jack to change tires, I bought and carry one too. He also experimented with transmission oil filtration. Doug is a teacher and biology researcher who 'walks the walk' of empirical science and I am fortunate to have met him.

    Bob Wilson
     
  4. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2009
    13,533
    4,063
    0
    Location:
    Austin, TX, USA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    Absolutely we should key off the science not the scientists, or the politicians pretending to be scientists.

    On Mr. Jones, certainly there was enough questions on his methodology. his dog seemed to eat his homework, that it could not be adequately peer reviewed in any direct way because he did not make things available. It has been peer reviewed in a black box way, open methodology by GISS, NCDC, and B.E.S.T. which means that even though there are questions, most data is now available as well as algorithms for people to find any problems. The temperature record with error bars is rock solid. I think one criticism of mr. Jones will stick and it should, you should not compare paleo climate that is smoothed (averaged) over many years or decades by proxies, with a temperature record that shows yearly data not smoothing for variation. Mr. Jones himself has admitted this mistake.

    I think we can credit Mr. Trenberth with some vary interesting hypothesis about the frequency of heavy storms and deep sea heat. The great thing about these hypothesis is they been responded to with a number of peer reviewed studies, most of them supplying evidence against the hypothesis. My criticism of coverage of Trenberth, is the hypothesis seem to be looked on as facts, and not the studies trying to test them. This is part of an effort to overturn the null hypothesis, that I disagree with. To my knowledge Trenberth hasn't cheated like jones, but many politicians take his hypotheses as science, instead of questions awaiting data and review. Certainly the study of how ghg changes the frequency and intensity of intense hurricanes and tornadoes, and how deep sea water sequesters warmer air are interesting questions that merit scientific study, and we can credit Trenberth for pushing these questions.


    Certainly these two have big personalities, but we shouldn't question the science because they are involved. There are so many other papers in their fields of study than they have put out.
     
    jgilliam1955 likes this.
  5. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2006
    11,314
    3,588
    1
    Location:
    Northern VA (NoVA)
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Perhaps a yet broader universal question....no I won't go there...

    ...beyond Prii help, this site is a place to keep up with Automotive technology (esp. green cars) and attitudes about energy policy etc. I became more active in 2009 when I was trying to figure out how much coal an EV would use: buckets of coal to buckets of gasoline comparison.
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    8,995
    3,507
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    A niche exists at PC which is absent at RealClimate. Also absent from Judith Curry and others.

    Here, people present 'objections to science' that sometimes merit consideration. Other times, with substance that makes aerogel look dense. There are people responding to such at other web sites. Here, not so much.

    Second reason is that well, I do carbon cycling. It has areas of overlap with earth system science. The latter field is so large that I could not possibly read it all. Instead PC is like a barometer that tells me what areas of earth system science are of interest to the PC demographic, You know, educated, inquisitive, but time strapped. At least a few with a passable sense of humor.

    Because of this, I have been lead to reading about certain subjects that I otherwise would not have. Some of them are fascinating, after you get into them.

    The odometer says 4100 posts in 10 1/2 years. I agree that does look a touch excessive but there are perhaps a few worse.

    Sagebrush asked. Check his odometer:p
     
    #6 tochatihu, Dec 7, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2014