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Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by Octane, Mar 28, 2011.

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  1. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Two words, invasive species.
     
    #21 F8L, Apr 2, 2011
  2. Octane

    Octane Proud Member of 100 MPG Club

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Let me cite MoJo, so nobody can accuse me of sourcing Fox News or some other alleged right wing outlet:

    Antarctic Sea Ice Increase: Fodder for Global Warming Skeptics? | Mother Jones

    Researchers have found that for the past 20 years, while ice in the Arctic has been rapidly decreasing, Antarctic sea ice has actually been increasing

    Doesn't "sea ice ... increasing" mean that the ocean is freezing? I'm not very edjumucated, so I may have misunderstimated that point.

    Also, not being bipolar, I do have an issue with the warming/cooling thing.

    Another Ice Age? - TIME

    In Africa, drought continues for the sixth consecutive year, adding terribly to the toll of famine victims. During 1972 record rains in parts of the U.S., Pakistan and Japan caused some of the worst flooding in centuries. In Canada's wheat belt, a particularly chilly and rainy spring has delayed planting and may well bring a disappointingly small harvest. Rainy Britain, on the other hand, has suffered from uncharacteristic dry spells the past few springs. A series of unusually cold winters has gripped the American Far West, while New England and northern Europe have recently experienced the mildest winters within anyone's recollection.

    2011 or 1974? I don't know which way to go with the "sky is falling" crowd.
    ​

    Tsk. Tsk. Water begins to expand at 4C which is not floating ice.

    Warming water expands, thus increases the sea level (which is your point, no?) Water below 39F also expands. Or is a rising sea level a one way check valve in that expanding water raises its level (when heated) but expanding water doesn't increase its level (when cooling past 39F)?
     
    #22 Octane, Apr 2, 2011
  3. Octane

    Octane Proud Member of 100 MPG Club

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Two words: decimated what?
     
    #23 Octane, Apr 2, 2011
  4. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Native species, agriculture, public works services, humans health, economy, soil productivity, etc. We don't have to go into habitat loss as I'm sure you are well versed in that.
     
    #24 F8L, Apr 2, 2011
  5. Octane

    Octane Proud Member of 100 MPG Club

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Invasive species have annihilated public works services, human health, economy? Are you well? What's your background, my friend?

    Oh you're right, when California Fish and Game intentionally poisoned California lakes by trying to kill off an invasive pike...

    California Poisons Lake, Targeting Invasive Pike : NPR

    (again, NPR and not Fox News)

    I see what you mean. But, you are wrong. Unfortunately, the invasive pike species didn't kill off Fish and Game (public works service) as you clumsily stated. We would have been better off with a bit of invasive species accelerating natural selection.

    You are doing nothing to demonstrate that the concept of "tripping point" is nothing but fiction.
     
    #25 Octane, Apr 2, 2011
  6. tripp

    tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it?

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    zebra muscles can trash public water infrastructure. There's a lot of concern about that here in colorado at present as zebra muscles have turned up in at least one reservoir. the state is aggressively trying to prevent them from getting a toe hold in our reservoirs.

    Asian carp pose a serious threat to great lakes sport fishing industry... OTOH, we are now exporting them to China as fast as we can because our come from the Mississippi, which by Chinese standards is a body of distilled water.

    I would guess that southern ice mass is increasing because there is more moisture being delivered. What are the water temps doing down there? I believe they're rising, which would provide more moisture to be precipitated on the ice shelves and continent.

    The ice age nonsense from the 70's never had anything like a scientific concensus. It had a media consensus as long as it was selling copies. That's about it. Global temps are clearly on some kinda of upward trend. How that will manifest itself may not be well know, but given that we depend heavily on our current climate for our well being, we'd be fools not to want to preserve that.
     
    #26 tripp, Apr 2, 2011
  7. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Actually I'm a land manager with a background in rangeland ecology. As such I work with field researchers from all over the state. According to field research and experience with ranchers, farmers, other land managers as well as my own experience I feel comfortable with my opinions. I'll link you to various resources once I'm done being sick.

    I like your pike diatribe though. You chose a situation where and invasive species was being managed to protect other non- natives. Not really the direction I was going. County public works depatments deal with a lot more than invasive fish. I work with County personnel one a weekly basis to help guide the new County Conservation Plan as well as assist in their Open Space Program. What is you r background again?
     
    #27 F8L, Apr 2, 2011
  8. Octane

    Octane Proud Member of 100 MPG Club

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Your "opinion" was nothing more than, as you said, "two words." Invasive species. This was in response to a discussion on "tripping points." That wasn't an opinion, it was a heckle.

    So, while you may be comfortable with your opinions, you certainly have not shared them on this topic. I'm only using the very few words you've actually typed to try and engage in an interesting conversation.

    Although, I do find it curious how you consider utilizing chemotherapy on a lake, which of course had immense collateral damage to the "patient" they were allegedly trying to save. And of course, the Pike came back. Thus, even man's attempt to be a tripping point--intentionally--was unsuccessful.

    But, what the whole fiasco did bring to light was the ham-fisted, tin-ear nature of the bureaucrats at Fish and Game who thought they knew everything, and because they had guns, they were going to do whatever the hell they pleased. This is a hallmark of the totalitarian nature of the green movement.

    Actually, when I was much younger and I had the opportunity to visit Capetown South Africa, I went on a tour in some protected land out on the Cape. This was at the height of the fascist apartheid police state regime in 1986. The guide complained incessantly about the invasive plant species and how they were taking steps to eradicate them. I'd never heard such things before that a government was declaring war on naturally growing plants. I thought it was preposterous that they thought they could remove every last seed, spore or tuber which could reproduce; thus, conquering the "problem" Then I thought, "hell, this is a police state that is obsessed with genetic purity, they can attempt any crazy thing, like stopping whites and blacks who love each other from mating and marrying, why wouldn't they have the hubris to think they could control flora reproduction too?"

    Lo and behold, what I've learned over the years that the environmental movement is fascism, prefers a police state to implement their policies and is way over concerned with genetic purity.

    Regarding my background, I'll let you guess because I wouldn't want to poison the discussion with any other considerations such as that I may not have the bonafides to take you on. I'll argue on your ground, not mine. How's that for equal opportunity?
     
    #28 Octane, Apr 2, 2011
  9. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    To suggest that people who fundamentally care about the environment are interested in a facist or police state is insulting at best!
     
    #29 icarus, Apr 2, 2011
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  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    For any who missed the previous sea-level rise discussion thread on PriusChat.

    The post-glacial seal level rise rate from 15,000 to 7,000 years BP averaged about 13 mm per year. You can figure that from the graphic here:

    [ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise]Current sea level rise - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

    Much slower during the last 7,000 years.

    The five major extinctions of the Earth's prehistory are not generally described as tipping points, but I think it fits well enough. One could approach that via wiki or (argh) by reading literature.

    During human times the biggest deal seems to have been the Toba super eruption, sometime between 77,000 and 69,000 years back. The genetics have not all been worked out, but you may read estimates that human global population was reduced to 10,000 or less. Happy to have missed that one!

    But we are what we are, at least in part, because of heavy "editing" but such events. I guess that could be called trippy.

    Ocean release of methane at the PETM is probably the tipping point that bears the most resemblance to current and near-future situation. has been Prius-chatted before. It would be great if we could avoid triggering something similar by ocean heating.
     
    #30 tochatihu, Apr 2, 2011
  11. Octane

    Octane Proud Member of 100 MPG Club

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse


    Likewise, this AWG nonsense is without consensus, media and government are using it to sell big time, and the recent change in the Lingua Franca of the Church of AWG from "global warming" to "global change" is a way of tying the hysteria of the coming ice age of 1974 right back into the equation as an attempt to explain the unusually calm hurricane seasons as well us historically cold winters we've had.

    And there is nobody who doubts that we are coming out of an ice age which is not unprecedented. Are you aware of the fossil record demonstrating the existence of Palms in the Arctic Circle and the Arctic sea was upwards of 73oF?

    Your last line is really a howl. As if we could preserve our climate any more than we could stop the plates on this ball of a sea of molten rock from moving thus preventing a Japan type earthquake.

    One good volcano comes along and messes everything you've done with billions of dollars in mere hours. What are you really going to do to stop natural forces of climate change, anyway?
     
    #31 Octane, Apr 2, 2011
  12. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Maybe you should look through the older threads on the topic. Thew fact is you are new here and missed out on the more thorough discussions. I don't like you enough to dig up those old threads nor attempt to educate you on the subject. Have fun with your politics.
     
    #32 F8L, Apr 2, 2011
  13. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Sea ice floating on a portion of the ocean does not cause a rise of liquid levels elsewhere. When the whole surface is frozen, however, ...
    Cooling climate ‘consensus’ of 1970s never was
    Myth often cited by global warming skeptics debunked

    Unfortunately you have to be a subscriber to see the online version. So you may have to search for the old threads here.
    The maximum expansion on the cold side is small compared to expansion on the warm side.
     
    #33 fuzzy1, Apr 2, 2011
  14. tripp

    tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it?

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    yes the PMT 55 mYa. The important bit to note is the 55 mya.
    Sure that could happen, well the volcano event. But you're right... we can't do much aobut that. It's also very unlikely that such an event would happen in any given millenium. Screwing with climate on decadal scales by pumping out enormous volumes of CO2 is something we can control. The public health, enviromental, and geopolitical benefits of doing so far outweight the small downsides.
     
    #34 tripp, Apr 2, 2011
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  15. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    The mechanisms and contributions are being worked out. It's no longer a matter of "is burning all our fossil fuels" having an environmental and climate effect. The question is how much of an effect? Probably a couple more decades of work needed to get a really solid picture.

    Unfortunately, the really important question is being missed. The really important question is will burning ALL the crude oil, ALL the coal, ALL the oil shale, and everything else that can be extracted from the ground for fuel.....cause us all a nasty, worldwide problem? Certainly little is being done to change this path presently.

    So when I look at the linear ocean rise, I'm hard pressed to see how that proves that we don't have a problem. I don't like the viewpoint of we should burn everything we can till everyone agrees we have a made an unrecoverable mistake.
     
    #35 FL_Prius_Driver, Apr 2, 2011
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #36 tochatihu, Apr 2, 2011
  17. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    So your solution would be continue to spew forth CO2 at a rate that is clearly unsustainable because someday there may be a geologic event that will also change climate?

    In other words, continue to crap in your nest?

    How about some alternatives that pay benefits not just for the environment but for the economy, national security, energy independence etc? If we had listened to the lessons of the 1973 oil "crisis" to begin to wean ourselves off of oil, by now we would have a thriving RE industry, possibly cheaper energy.

    So, even if you think it a good idea to crap in your nest, perhaps you might be convinced that an energy policy that moves us away from burning all the fossil fuel we can regardless of total costs might be advantageous.

    Icarus
     
    #37 icarus, Apr 2, 2011
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Church and White 2006, finding a recent acceleration in sea-level rise by combining tide gauge and satellite data, was cited by Houston and Dean. CW 06 was found to suggest that the acell occurred in 1920's, and that it was not well characterized mathematically.

    However not cited was Church et al 2008
    "Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future"
    Sustain Sci (2008) 3:9–22

    That paper is freely accessbile here
    http://academics.eckerd.edu/instructor/hastindw/MS1410-001_FA08/handouts/2008SLRSustain.pdf

    and you might be interested in Figure 3C. I think they handled the above concerns pretty well and it seems unfortunate that HD 11 did not cite the newer.

    The earlier CW06 is also free - just crank up
    www.scholar.google.com

    As several more years of satellite data have accumulated (and are posted online), it might be timely for another analysis. Won't be me doing it though. Maybe John Church will feel the urge.

    Or maybe a Prius Chatter? With gauge and satellite data both online, just make your own transparent methodology on how to combine them and off you go.

    Presumes that the original thread topic is still of interest here - we seem to be drifting a bit.
     
    #38 tochatihu, Apr 2, 2011
  19. tripp

    tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it?

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Like continents, threads do that...
     
    #39 tripp, Apr 3, 2011
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Re: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyse

    Interest in sea level trends may be at low tide here? But our durable Church and White are still on the case:

    Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century
    Surveys in Geophysics
    DOI 10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1

    Online 2011 March 30, so the electronic ink is scarcely dry. As did the thread-starting authors in JCR, Church and White have paid for 'open access' so you could download this one in your PJs. Some excerpts:

    "The linear trend from 1900 to 2009 is 1.7 ± 0.2 mm year-1 and from 1961 to 2009 is
    1.9 ± 0.4 mm year-1. However, there are significant departures from a linear trend."

    "Significant progress has been made during the last decade in estimating and understanding historical sea-level rise. However, much remains to be done. Of particular importance is the maintenance and continuation of the observing network and associated infrastructure such as the PSMSL archive."

    Perhaps we can say that this is what happens when te entire available historic record is analyzed? Clearly Houston and Dean came to a different conclusion by examining a subset of stations, only after 1930. Bu as I said in my first response, that is their priviledge.

    There have been recent deconstructions of Houston and Dean (at Tamino for example) not qut so kindly as I have tried to be here throughout. But those interested will find them readily enough.
     
    #40 tochatihu, Apr 14, 2011
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