Shipping fuel regulations could cause more global warming

Very interesting,,,


It might also be interesting to see if a similar image exists for intercontinental aircraft.

 

Aerosols offset warming, and at first glance that's not implausible. Here are the forcings in the NASA GISS model.

Data @ NASA GISS: Forcings in GISS Climate Model

So, looking at that graph, it's clear that aerosols matter a lot. In fact, the most plausible explanation of post-WWII lack of warming globally was increased atmospheric aerosols, as evidenced by increased sulphate aerosols in Greenland ice over that period. Because, as you can see from the GISS forcings graph, aerosols pretty nearly offset all GHG emissions even now.

Various clean air acts and, in the US, cap and trade for S02 emissions, have greatly reduced sulphate aerosols from stationary sources. Add low-sulphur diesel for cars, and, yeah, it's plausible that ocean transport could be a major contributor by default -- its the last source left.

Here's one source, unknown quality, claiming that ships account for 39% of the effect of manmade sulphate aerosols.

Institute for Atmospheric Physics - Aerosols from ocean shipping cause a significant negative climate forcing

Here's one that's 10 years old, in the same vein, so it's not as if that's not been said before:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v400/n6746/abs/400743a0.html

But a problem with aerosols and particulates as "solutions" to warming is that the C02 hangs around for a long time, while the aerosols wash out of the atmosphere in a couple of years (as evidenced by the impact of Pinatubo and similar volcanoes -- their primary cooling effect was from injecting S02 into the stratosphere, forming sulphate aerosols).

Anyway, the basic point seems sound -- it would be like the impact of various Clean Air acts, all over again.

And, when you get right down to it, one of the few relatively benign geoengineering proposals is to create a fleet of ships to aspirate seawater, so that salt will form condensation nucleii and you'll increase ocean cloud cover. Cleaning up bunker fuel would be like that proposal in reverse.

 

Oh wow a computer model of climate by a group that is trying to push global warming on the masses? I bet that's some accurate stuff! I wonder how much input Dr. Hansen (the psychotic alarmist) had?

 

Speaking of ships:

Sensor problems with ship based CO2 flux measurements – readings too high, affected by humidity Watts Up With That?

Sensor problems with ship based CO2 flux measurements – readings too high, affected by humidity

 

Thank you for adding to this thread, not sure what you added but it is a post longer now. Yes I know I'm guilty of the same thing.

Funny how much like jet trails those ship trails look. It must have been a still day for the trails to stay in place so long as to allow a ship to cross an ocean.

 

Does anyone have any idea of the time frame of the picture? Is it real time or is it a composite of several days? It would be interesting to know total emissions per ton/mile of ocean ships compared to other forms of transport, including rail, truck and even air.

My intuition would be that shipping should be the most efficient in terms of fuel burned per ton mile, and ergo should be the lowest total emissions per ton mile.

Icarus

PS Rp1, nobody cares!