Featured Solid-state battery wars

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by Gokhan, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. Gokhan

    Gokhan Active Member

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    Several companies are claiming that they are near solid-state battery breakthrough. However, QuantumScape is currently the only one with actual data presented. We will see who will eventually win the war.

    In any case the current lithium-ion battery technology will be obsolete in about a half decade, as it has many problems—slow charging, capacity loss, fire hazard, low power density, etc. Solid-state batteries will exclusively power the EVs of the very near future.

    A Discussion of QuantumScape’s Battery Technology Performance Results

    The Leaders in the Race to Build a Better EV Battery - WSJ

    Now, who is investing in these hot stocks?
     
  2. Prim.e.xample

    Prim.e.xample Member

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    Not sure I’d be investing in them right now:

    IMG_2413.jpg
     
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  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'm sure we will continue to make incremental improvements in battery technology,

    but i'm not expecting any miracles
     
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  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” - Arthur C. Clarke

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. Gokhan

    Gokhan Active Member

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    #5 Gokhan, Jan 16, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2021
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    shorts?
     
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  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Li-ion won't be obsolete in five years. There is still a lot of unknowns with solid state. A big one is manufacturing at scale. A recent headline in my feed was about a solid state company building 3D printers to make their battery. Needing new equipment to build the battery means ripping out the equipment used for Li-ion in factories, and installing new. That is a huge capitol cost that will be added to the solid state packs for some time.

    Solid Power is the only one I heard of making use of existing equipment for production. The factory mentioned in Toyota's press release is just making the electrolyte, not assembling cells.
     
  8. Gokhan

    Gokhan Active Member

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    The now-mandated EV transition is a no-go with the Li-ion technology. If not five years, it will be obsolete in ten, or fifteen in the worst-case scenario. Current EV vehicles are not practical for mainstream adoption because of the limitations of the Li-on technology, which has already reached its limits for quite some time now.

    Remember how fast the NiMH–Li-ion transition occurred. Expect the Li-ion–solid-state transition to happen as fast.
     
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  9. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    If this is a war, the battlefield isn't in some lab where you have a "breakthrough." The battlefield is on the assembly line and the war is cost per kilowatt of power. Whoever produces it at the lowest cost wins the war...

    So if someone tells you someone in a lab has developed something that's going to revolutionize batteries, it's kinda of like someone who just signed a 30 year mortgage telling you they own their own home. I mean after 30 years of not missing a monthly payment that's true, but...
     
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  10. Gokhan

    Gokhan Active Member

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    Not if the house prices jump and you cash in hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars by selling it. ;)
     
  11. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    Your claim has zero evidence to back it up. Solid-state batteries live in the land of make believe... There's no factory, there's no assembly line, there's no way to compare its production cost per kilowatt with rate at which that cost is being lowered in relation to cost per kilowatt of Lithium with rate at which that cost is being lowered. Lithium assembly lines have lowered cost of production at a steady rate and the newest design announced by Panasonic and Tesla is a huge next step in lowering production costs. Meanwhile Solid-state isn't even being manufactured at scale yet. Kinda reminds me of someone sitting in the bleachers of a ball game telling the people around them that couch needs to put them in the game because they know they can win it for 'em.
     
    #11 PriusCamper, Jan 16, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2021
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  12. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    Solid-state batteries live in the land of make believe... There's no factory, there's no assembly line, there's no way to compare it's production cost per kilowatt with rate at which that cost is being lowered in relation to cost per kilowatt of Lithium with rate at which that cost is being lowered
    Yes, and solid state battery makers currently don't even have a roof or wall or foundation for their house yet so good luck re-selling it for a profit.

    Most people like to buy houses that are already built.

    Solid state batteries are no more than a CAD file on an Architects hard drive right now.
     
  13. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Maybe the OP is the company founder (S)he's trying to drum up investors.
     
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  14. Gokhan

    Gokhan Active Member

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  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    There is three big limitations that slow EV adoptions.

    The first is cost. Li-ion has steadily declining in production cost, and it still is. Solid state is going to cost more. If new production methods are needed, prices will likely be what around what Li-ion was at when the first plug ins arrived, but there may not be incentives for the battery then. Even if solid state could be built on existing production lines, different materials means the building of new supply lines. Then the companies will want to reclaim some of the money spent on R&D up front.

    The second is charging infrastructure. Fast is needed to support long trips, which is growing, but most cars don't go on long trips. They just need slow charging overnight, which is also the more economical way to do it. That needs to be addressed from non home owners. No matter the battery type, Evs will be charged mostly by slow charging. Better fast charging times of solid state might allow those that can't slow charge some where to get a BEV, but the more expensive fast chargers have to be available first.

    The third is mental. People are just used to the idea of an ICE car. A fast charging solid state battery EV might get them into an EV, but after living with it, they'll likely opt for a cheaper Li-ion EV for the second one.

    Li-ion is going to have an advantage in recycling. We are building the chain for that, and recycling is a proponent in cell design now. It is last, if there, for solid state now.

    The comparison doesn't apply to plug ins as a patent holder denied NiMH use in a competitive manner. Then the first commercial Li-ion cell was available in the 1970's. Brief History of Early Lithium-Battery Development Solid state batteries aren't even phones yet. You might find some being used in some medical devices at this point.
     
    #15 Trollbait, Jan 16, 2021
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 17, 2021
  16. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    ...Toyota Motor and other companies have invested heavily in the technology, and have already succeeded in building some solid state batteries. The hard part is mass producing them at a reasonable cost. Much of the excitement around QuantumScape stems from the company’s assertion that it has found a material that solves one of the main impediments to mass production of solid state batteries, namely their tendency to short circuit if there are any imperfections.

    Still, most people in the industry don’t expect solid state batteries to be widely available until around 2030. Mass producing batteries is “the hardest thing in the world,” Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, said on a recent conference call with analysts. “Prototypes are easy. Scaling production is very hard.”...
    The Auto Industry Bets Its Future on Batteries - The New York Times
     
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  17. Gokhan

    Gokhan Active Member

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    Yes, it is a slow process to develop and realize technology. However, QuantumScape is expecting to go into full production of their solid-sate batteries in 2024 if they don't hit roadblocks.
     
  18. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Have been following them and others and aware of the reports. But as the article points out, industry experts say scaled production is not going to happen that soon. I would place money on 2024 not meeting that goal as well.
     
  19. Gokhan

    Gokhan Active Member

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    Today after market close, QuantumScape released their Q4 report, and things are looking very good, with the company reporting stacked cells for the very first time and also announcing a pilot factory in San Jose named QS-0, which will start making solid-state batteries for test vehicles in a couple of years. If all goes well, expect Apple and other companies to line up to get their solid-state batteries from them along with the Volkswagen/Audi/Porsche group, who is already their partner.

    https://ir.quantumscape.com/

    It is a very interesting read in "Solid-state battery landscape" at the above link. QuantumScape is claiming that the solid-sate battery technology other companies are working on, such as Toyota's sulfide and Solid Power's polymer separators, are dead on arrival, and their ceramic solid-state separator is currently the only working solution.

    https://s26.q4cdn.com/263384136/files/doc_presentation/2021/QS-Solid-State-Landscape.pdf

    https://s26.q4cdn.com/263384136/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/QS-Shareholder-Letter-Q4-2020.pdf
     
  20. Gokhan

    Gokhan Active Member

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    QuantumScape: Only We Have A Viable Solid-State Lithium Metal Battery

    QuantumScape's CEO said that when asked to compare his company's achievements to those obtained by Nio, Toyota, and Solid Power.

    “It does not help to have a multi-layer cell that uses a single-layer building block that does not work. It would be the equivalent of trying to put up a multi-story building when you haven’t been able to make a single-story building without collapsing on itself. We haven’t seen any data from any of the competitors that has shown a solid-state separator capable of delivering long cycle lives and high current densities without requiring elevated temperatures.”

    “As a result, the players you just mentioned fall into one of two categories: those that have reverted back to carbon-based anodes, which of course results in the loss of many of the key benefits of the solid-state lithium metal architecture, including energy density fast charge, and cost, and those that use lithium metal but can only work under compromised test conditions that make these cells not commercially viable.”

    “We believe we’re the only player to have shown a solid-state lithium metal single-layer building block capable of meeting the key requirements of long cycle life, high turn density, and unelevated temperatures.”
     
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