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Some of the best plug-in statistics

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by austingreen, May 13, 2015.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Idaho National Labs have done a great deal of research on plug-in use and charging behavior.
    The EV Project

    Unfortunately the Tesla model S is outside the scope of research, but we do know that the gen I volt gets driven more than the leaf and has nearly the same electric miles
    http://avt.inel.gov/pdf/EVProj/eVMTMay2014.pdf
    Idaho National Lab Shows Chevy Volts Go Nearly As Far on Electricity As Pure EVs - HybridCars.com
    We get 9697 average ev miles in a volt and 9112 average ev miles per year in a volt from users in the same cities. The prius phv averaged 2484, fusion energi 4337 but these are not directly comparable as the data was not normalized for the same cities. This means if the gen II leaf gets a 50 mile epa range as gm is planning, it should exceed ev miles per year of a car like the 84 ev range leaf.

    Note, there is other data that may not be as rosy. The volt fleet got a significantly larger ev percentage (74%) than GM on star average (62%). This may be partially due to regional differences and partially due to drivers in this program were voluntarily tracked.

    Demographics were also tracked
    http://avt.inel.gov/pdf/EVProj/128842-80098.devproj.pdf
    63% of plug-in drivers were male, with volt drivers skewing more male than leaf drivers. Average age 50.9, average income $148K

    They found that varying time of use rates could get 90% of charging off peak, but charges for a new meter in california may hurt this incentives. Off peak charging and indeed smart charging is key to improving the grid in the most cost effective way. This may speak to the fact that regulators in california may need to get utilities to provide new meters at lower prices or free to customers wishing to switch to time of use(prices charged seem extremely high there).
     
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    this probably shows that a phev is useful to reduce range anxiety, but it doesn't help move people from gassers to ev.
     
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    What probably happens is those buying short distance bevs, use other cars. The benefit of a 50 mile phev is probably the same or higher than a 80 mile bev. The difference is that phev will also get electric miles on a long trip, while the bev owner will go in a different car This is especially true in southern california, a place tracked, where that phev is going to have much lower unhealthy tailpipe emissions than a similar gasoline only car according to SAE as it will start up much less when it starts.

    If the California ARB (CARB) award of 9 zev credits for fuel cells are because they don't think a phev will run electrically as stated by them, these numbers say the opposite. Perhaps if a leaf gets 3 zev credits, a gen II volt should get at least 2 zev credits, and if its about tailpipe pollution, I'm not sure why a fcv should get more than a leaf. In 2018 the fcv bonus is supposed to go away, but CARB seems heavily invested in the California fuel cell partnership. Will they add credits for phevs that use electricity for the majority of miles? I doubt either will happen.

    Absolutely that tesla model S is getting more people into plug-in vehicles in heavily polluted LA than a volt, but someone could come up with a more popular phev50;)
     
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    So can we project how many will have been build by then?

    Once production ends, it is time to buy some and store in a barn somewhere. <GRINS>

    Opps, I forgot, they all will because the hydrogen fuel stations will go out of business and the FCVs will be parked. . . . (Another pipe dream fortune meets reality and goes up in smoke.)

    Bob Wilson
     
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  5. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Over 50,000 according to CARB, Less than 10,000 in the US according to toyota, which is the most optimistic car maker. I don't believe the fuel cell bonuses will end. We have seen this play out before. CARB shuts of debate whenever one of these research projects is mentioned. Their will stil be bonuses.
    +1
    Probably why if you really want one you should lease it with option to buy at the end.
     
  6. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    EV miles don't make sense with a plug-in hybrid that takes advantage of blending for higher overall efficiency.

    Sacrificing electricity for the sake of higher EV miles isn't wise. In other words, an EV guzzler just displaces wasteful consumption.
     
  7. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    That is why i believe inl tried to adjust by using "trip summary" from the prius phv and accord phev to try to give them the benefit of partial miles. The volt and leaf are the only head to head same city same methodology. The focus ev used more cities then these, the fit ev and accord and prius plug-ins were restricted to sales that were not included. There is no explanation on why the focus ev data was not normalized to only include the inl chosen target cities.

    All and all a good summary though, given that toyota and honda chose not to sell in many of the benchmark cities. If you look into the methodology, let me know how you would adjust the accord phev and prius phv differently. We can notice some things. Prius phv's in the reported cars traveled 24% further in a year. This may be self selecction or poor normalization. We probably have some of those that didn't plug-in every day, given the number of electric miles. On the other hand the average volt plugged in a little more than once a day on one of these studies. 41% of those with a plug-in had access to at least L1 at work in the volt/leaf longer inl study. Those that did not need to pay used them. The best normalized data is volt versus leaf, and leaf miles are supported by focus ev and fit ev miles. The volt seems to go almost as many miles as these short run plug-ins. A 50 mile epa phev may get more all electric miles than a 85 mile epa bev.
     
    #7 austingreen, May 16, 2015
    Last edited: May 16, 2015
  8. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    The results themselves are skewed simply due to lack of configuration choices for plug-on hybrids too. Only Energi has a second model available.

    Just think how different the view will be a few years from now... when that becomes an expectation.