Tesla CEO: future hinges on increasing Model S production

We definitely are one of the couples that bought it for the EV aspect and not the sports car aspect.
I did think it was a great conversation starter to educate people that were not normally interested in EVs.
If we lived in a kinder EV environment, we probably would have a LEAF instead. But in winters in MN it doesn't meet out range needs.

As far as the odds being against them, the odds have been against them every day since they started
So far, so good!

 

That is true, and I hope they succeed.

The bmw 3 like bev for around $30K switches gears from what american start ups are good at. to mass production and cost reduction. That is where many slip up. Let's drill down. They probably mean after tax credit so lets say $37K. This is about $20K or 35% below the 40kwh (125 mile range EPA est) Tesla S. Maybe they can get efficiency up in the smaller car and do a 30kwh pack for 100 mile range. Battery costs can easily drop enough. Its still going to be tough to cut the rest of those costs and keep quality products as manufacturing ramps up. It is doable though. If they build it will enough people buy it, is the second part of the long shot.

 

Well, if they mean after the credit, I don't see why it'd be a problem. Hell, even if the pack cost $18k it'd still leae plenty of room for the other components.However, I think it's pretty clear that battery prices are not going to be $600/kWh by the time it'd be produced.
My worry is whether they'll be able to get production up enough to last that long.

 

I in no way want to imply it will be easy.
All I mean is they have faced more difficult stages and have gotten through them.
Battery tech will hopefully improve by about 24% in three years (based on the recent historical 8%/year). This and a smaller bady should help out quite a bit.
If it is the best offering out there in 2015 and is indeed more reasonably priced, it will likely be our second car

 

I find it likely that they will be able to get batteries in 2016 for $400/kwh. As I said this maybe 30 kwh/100 mile range vehicle, which would likely mean $12K costs for battery. Right now they are relying on Panasonic for battery cost reductions, but if anouther vendor - LG Chem, A123, JCI, one of the startups - gets better technology they can switch vendors. The battery cost reduction should be achievable what is more difficult is building the rest of the car and mass producing it. I expect the rest of the car will be much more upscale than the leaf, or it won't sell.

On the pack size, the max is likely less than the 85kwh pack in the S because of the smaller footprint. One way to reduce costs is to use more steel and less aluminum, which may make cars with the same sized pack weigh around the same amount. Using 17" wheels as a base should reduce costs and reduce rolling resistance though, and a narrower car should reduce drag. There are definitely ways to do a $30K BEV.

 

CNET Model S Video Review!

Tesla S builds its first car that can function as more than just your second car, the Top 5 high tech cars you can afford and the self-driving tech you'll soon own.

Can the Tesla Model S unkill the electric car? CNET On Cars, Episode 3 | CNET TV | Video Product Reviews, CNET Podcasts, Tech Shows, Live CNET Video

 

I guess they rejected the nissan polar bear, and decided it was only a second car.

The roadster plus improvements in batteries unkilled the plug-in, not that it was dead anyway.

The tesla S, leaf, imev, Rav4 BEV seem to be a genuine step up from the first cars, while looking like they will be able to be made profitably in the near future. The ZEV mandate was way to early, and may have actually delayed progress. The phevs - volt, prius phv, ford energis are also part of the electric car story. They aren't taking over, but we have a good shot at a decent slice of the car market in ten years, and desirable cars today.

 

I think the Cnet mention of the S being the first EV not relegated to 'second car' status again misses the point.
Ay of the EVs could very well be a primary vehicle. Actually, it's more likely to be a primary vehicle with a gas burning or PHEV being a secondary car used when greater range is needed.
But how it works (primary or secondary) depends entirely on driving patterns.
No car works for everyone, EV or otherwise.

 

I met a guy today who built an electric scooter. Repeat: Scooter. Cost him $10,000 to build.

Kind of puts the cost of low volume production into perspective. Prius would probably cost $50,000 too, if they only built 11,000 a year.

 

Exactly. If you define primary/secondary by range then of course the S is still secondary, as any gas car can go further. But by miles, it's certainly not the first. I'm using my Leaf for as much driving as possible. A 23 mile trip in my other car costs $4. In my Leaf it's $.80, so no surprise which one I'm using when I can and it's now on primary duty for everything.

Overall a pretty good video, though, from cnet!

 

I think 30kWh/100mi is optimist. That's i-MiEV / Fit EV territory. BMW Active E is rated at 33kWh/100mi.

So a 50kWh pack with usable 40kWh would give 121 miles range.

 

The official is 265 miles on 85kwh pack which works out to 32kwh/100 miles for a pack. It is rated at 89 mpge epa, or 38 kwh/100 miles from the plug. Certainly I would expect some routes to be able to get 30kwh/100 miles since the epa uses a large fudge factor even in an S, but easily done in a smaller lighter vehicle. A 50 kwh pack would give an epa 167 mile range in that future vehicle.

 

Right, EPA figure has charging loss.