Featured Tesla goes even more Ludicrous

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by hill, Aug 24, 2016.

  1. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    Low reliability, as in it will cost as much as a regular new car to replace every 10-15 years or so.
     
  2. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    Again, making stuff up is making stuff up. Where does this come from, Prius data, Tesla data, Where?
     
  3. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    You guys are wasting your breath with these idiots. You cannot win them over with logic. You cannot win them over with facts. The more we argue with them, the more we start to look like the idiots.

    Fools find no pleasure in understanding, but delight in airing their own opinions. - Proverbs 18:2
     
  4. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    c'mon now be patient .... remember - history shows its common for change to create resistance & negativity. 100+ yrs ago - autos were facing the same push-back. Some jurisdictions made laws forcing auto drivers to have someone walking or running in front of the gasoline car - waving a lantern or flag - rationalizing everyone needed to be warned of the oncoming noisy / smelly /dangerous contraption.
    Red flag traffic laws - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    In many instances the negativity & resistance was just the same thing as people's motives modernly ..... push-back from the predominant industry - & back then, much of the push-back came from the horse & buggy industry, fearing their own demise. People mocked, "there's no place to even buy gas" .... or, "it's not as reliable comparred to my old mazda-horsie" ..... or, "It'd have to cost 5x less than my old mazda horsie before i'd change".
    My know-it-all father-in-law is the same way - retired electrical engineer telling me how he was so done with stupid computers because back in the 1970s they were just so impractical. By 3 decades later, he can't live without them .... yet he couldn't see past his own prejudice when he first said/told me that foolishness - around 1993. So let the poor guy had his rant. And he will rant. Eventually like most, he will come around - or not .... either way, it's ok.
    Meanwhile - the new 100kWh pack Ludacris mode on Tesla's sport utility vehicle yields it a 2.9 second 0-60mph time. Can you imagine that? A sport utility vehicle doing that? That's just . . . . ludicrous!

    .
     
    #104 hill, Aug 29, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2016
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  5. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    Tesla has extended their battery mileage warranty to infinity, but left the calendar time warranty at 8 years. I was assuming it would actually last around double the warranty before combined cycle and calendar degradation would approach 30%. Earlier claims from Tesla were much less than that (5 years) but they've improved battery management to increase both cycle life and calendar life. However, 15 years is very long for even the best (Nickel Hydrogen) batteries. While cycle-life is likely not a big issue for Teslas, calendar life still is.
     
  6. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    I was assuming ....
    imagine that - basing one's understanding on the static versus ever changing improvements
    surprise surprise - in just a couple more years - tech will be even better
    .
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    My tool box has at least three ways to remove a 1/2" bolt:
    • socket wrench
    • box-open wrench
    • channel locks/crescent wrench/pipe wrench/silly TV universal wrench
    I don't say one is the only answer but each has their strengths and weaknesses. In like fashion, having more than one choice for transportation lets us 'buy' (the ultimate choice) that meets our requirements:
    [​IMG]
    Note: Tesla is not in the top, eight EVs because of the poor MPGe. Even so, the block-to-block speed when charging is required makes it a poor choice relative to hybrid and plug-in hybrid.​

    So if range is most needed with fast block-to-block time, the order should be:
    1. hybrid
    2. plug-in hybrid
    3. EV
    If cheap drive around urban area is most need:
    1. EV
    2. plug-in hybrid
    3. hybrid
    If you want both range and cheap driving around town:
    1. plug-in hybrid (the one that most matches your requirements)
    2. plug-in hybrid (the one mismatched to your requirements)
    3. EV or hybrid
    Everyday is a multiple choice test and we make choices of what most meets our requirements. Sad to say, the 'crib sheets' (aka., magazines, user forums, loud-mouth by the water cooler) are not much better. So you pays your money and takes your chances.

    GOOD LUCK!
    Bob Wilson
     
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  8. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    For you.

    But the Supercharger network works many now, and is growing. Logistics and economics made it impossible for Tesla to completely cover the entire country within a short time span. Faced with that they opted start where population density is the highest, because that is where they will find more car sales.

    This is roughly how gas stations grew. The first ones didn't appear out in the sticks, but in major cities first.
    Not quantitative data, but the Supercharger station between L.A. and San Francisco needs to use portable, generated powered chargers during busy holidays. This was the site of Tesla's battery swapping station, too, and many opted to wait for a charge than swap the pack.

    An old Union of Concerned Scientists estimate had 40% of the population being able to use a sub-100 mile BEV for daily driving. That is a huge portion of the driving public. Considering a household likely has more than one car, and BEV, or any car really doesn't have to 'do it all' for a family.
    I'm amazed people would pay extra in price and fuel for AWD to deal with one to two days of snow a year.

    Who is trying to ban PHEVs? There are models available, but they pay for their flexibility in the cost of a large traction pack with an ICE and Emission system

    BEVs have limits, but they do work for many now. There is no harm in them being available for those people at this time.
    Aren't most people getting an actual new car within that time period?
     
  9. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    Median car lifetime is about 15 years (varies a lot depending on location). That means half last longer, half shorter. I've owned two cars of nearly 30 years old in my lifetime, including one right now (1988 model).
     
  10. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    Lee...can we please just agree that the Tesla is absolutely the opposite car you need or want...in so many ways? But please don't project your situation onto everyone else's. Are you really arrogant enough to think that what is best for you is best for everyone?
     
  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Or less than 12 years.
    "IHS forecasts that average age is likely to hit 11.6 years in 2016 but not reach 11.7 until 2018."
    - Better quality raises average age of cars on U.S. roads to 11.5 years - LA Times
    Nearly half of the cars on the road are in the 6 to 14 year range.

    The Model S's on the road are still under 10 years. Claiming that they will need repairs that cost as much as a new car is shooting from the hip and missing. It assumes whatever the pack's capacity is at that point isn't enough to meet the owner's needs, and that a refurbished pack wouldn't be considered.

    All cars reaching that age are at risk of pricey repairs, even ICE ones. PHEVs have all the potential failures of the ICE with the cost of a large battery pack. Hydrogen FCEVs have to replace the tanks in that time frame, and possibly the fuel cell stack.
     
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  12. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    One of my last cars was an ICE powered car where, if the engine needed replacement, the cost was in the $30k and 2 months range.

    I can get my hybrid battery exchanged in 2 places in my low income town of 15k people for a tenth of that and in less than a week.

    If I need a battery for a Tesla in 12-15 years, who knows how much it might cost then as the price/performance curve has been bending in the consumer's favor (and the old battery may have some reuse potential for power storage). There may be several generations of battery manufacturing technology between now and then. Projecting battery costs or the car's value out that far is pure speculation and any number you pluck out of the air can be used to justify any position you want.
     
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  13. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    In any case, even if a 200+ mile car is still on the road in 15 years and it's pack has degraded to 70% of the original capacity it can still be driven farther than any non-Tesla BEV on the market today. If that's a problem for the original owner they will most likely sell it to someone else who is happy with 140 miles of range.
     
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  14. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    or get a new or rebuilt pack - as some prius owners are doing
    - alternatively, one might consider the Tesla Roadster. iirc, the 1st model hit the road some 7 or 8yrs ago. They get a couple hundred miles range or so & none of them that I read about on the Tesla board have suffered significant capacity loss. Even so Tesla has not abandoned them - but rather is providing an upgrade so that they can actually get up to 400 miles or so. Only a couple folks have opted for the upgrade due to 2 things;
    One - they're fine as is. or,
    Two - the cost isn't worth enough - because owners are ok with what they have. But the upgrade not only includes a greater range battery but a LRR tire set & lower drag-coefficiency installed front end kit. How many gasser manufacturers are doing that for their discontinued models.
    .
     
    #114 hill, Aug 29, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2016
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  15. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Costco Gas station looks similar to the Te
    Well said :) Now do the same and keep an open mind on Hydrogen :D
     
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  16. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    Going to be hard for a man who gets excess energy from the sun for free to keep an open mind about anything not electric. :)
     
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  17. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    plenty of hydrogen on the sun too ... not just sunlight
    It's just finding a long enough asbestos wrapped hose to siphon some of that hydrogen off. Make sure you're not wrapping your lips around that siphoning hose too tight when it gets right next to your 5 gallon Jerry-can.

    .
     
    #117 hill, Aug 30, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2016
  18. Ashlem

    Ashlem Senior Member

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    You do realize Tesla is adding more superchargers all the time, right? And with the Model 3, I think Elon Musk said that they would concentrate SC stations based on where there were the most reservations for them were at to prevent or at least reduce wait times when they come out.

    That said, it won't work for everyone, especially those who have really long commutes, or likes to take long road trips to off beaten paths where there currently isn't any charging available. But give it time, and as more EV's show up, so to will the charging infrastructure.


    Unless you have 3 kids, a used Chevy Volt would fit your needs just fine. 35-38 miles of EV range, but has the gas engine backup so you can still drive it anywhere you could with a gas car. You can pick them up dirt cheap as well, around $11-16k on average for ones coming off lease. They're not bad cars, just misunderstood, which means you can snag a them for a great price due to their lower demand.

    Your commute is even shorter than mine, which is 19 miles one way. Because I don't drive it with a lead foot, I'm actually getting 50 miles out of the battery in my 2014 Volt. It does drop down to around 25-27 miles in winter, but that's still miles I didn't have to burn gas on. And unless it's extremely cold, I only burn about a quarter of a gallon of gas for my commute, so a full tank of 9 gallons still lasts me around a month or so.

    But when it warms up, I can go months without having to fill it up again. But if I need to take a road trip to visit friends or relatives that live a few hours away, I can just hop on the freeway and burn some gas.

    It's also a heckuva lot more fun to drive than my 2014 Prius it replaced. Lot quieter on the freeway, handles bumps better, and much better acceleration. True, not everyone needs 0-60 times of under 5 seconds. But I hated holding up traffic in my Prius if I was at the front of a light, and hearing it whine when I wanted some power out of it so as not to tick off all the cars behind me.

    One guy, Erick Belmer, has also already logged in almost 340k miles on his 2012 Volt, of which 119k miles were on electric. He still gets the same 35 miles of electric range now that he did when he first bought it a few years ago. Google "sparkie volt" if you want to see his latest stats.

    Yes, some may argue the Volt isn't a "true" EV. But the way I look at it, any car that you can plug in, and not have to burn gas, counts as an EV for me. They're all helping to advance plug-in battery car technology, which I see as a good thing, even in the cars that have really pitiful EV ranges.

    I love how Elon Musk bucked the trend with EV's. Automakers were pretty much all claiming "nobody wants electric vehicles". Until Tesla started eating into their sales when people started buying the Roadster, and later the Model S. Now almost all of them are coming out with some form of plug-in, partly for govt fuel economy regulations, but also because Musk showed them that "yes, people want electric cars, if you don't make them impractical, glorified golf carts".

    Yes, battery tech still has a lot of drawbacks. But the main ones, such as lack of charging infrastructure, the cost of the battery, long recharge times, and short range, are all being addressed. It'll take time, but eventually we could see a day where EV's are the norm, and gas only cars are the niche vehicles.

    Once they start releasing plug-in hybrid SUV's and trucks that don't cost an extra $10-20k over a gas model, you can likely expect them to start creeping up in market share. And that'll also help ease people into driving a fully battery electric car as the charging infrastructure improves, so that people living in apartment buildings can have a charging station installed in their parking lot. And side street parking has them as well down the line.

    Of course, I don't expect this to happen in 5-10 years. But I could definitely see it happening in 15-20, depending on how well the 200 mile ranged EV's coming out, such as the Chevy Bolt, the Tesla Model 3, and the next gen Nissan Leaf, fare.
     
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  19. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    When they have around 20,000 and they charge at half a megawatt, I'll look into them.

    I have two kids, and the back seat and cargo area of a Volt put it out of consideration right away. I'm 5'6" and don't have enough leg room back there.

    I may buy a 2017 Prius Prime.
     
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  20. prius_noob

    prius_noob Member

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    I WANT 600 miles, but I'd be happy with 300 miles :)
     
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