Tesla is doomed: Model 3 - 77,550, Model S/X - 17,650

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Jul 2, 2019.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Source: Tesla Q2 2019 production and delivery numbers

    Deliveries for the company’s biggest seller, the Model 3, the company were 77,550 compared with 74,100 estimated by analysts. Combined deliveries for the Model S sedans and Model X SUVs were 17,650, also beating estimates of 16,600, according to FactSet data.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  2. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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    “Delivery numbers are important, but we need to see the tea leaves look good for the second half,” Ives said in an interview. Tesla’s production target for the year is “still an Everest task, especially with competition coming at them from all angles. The real question is going to be, is this sustainable?”
     
  3. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    By tomorrow a lot of the (oil company) analysts and TSLAQ shorts will explain why this isn't sustainable and just a glitch.

    Mike
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i think they started last week from what i read.
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    there is no competition to date. when do you think the negative nancies will announce that it is sustainable?
     
  6. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    ... & then, after the smear campaign for that day is done - they drive home from the office, in their model 3.

    .
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    who is this clueless prof sonnenfeld from yale? ah, ivy league and tenure, is there a better combination?
     
  8. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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    I have no idea. I was just quoting from the article. Do you know?
     
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    yes, never. no company is immune to bankruptcy

    ives comments were nonsense, since there will be no competition in the second half.

    who knows when there will be? why would ives be skeptical of tesla in the second half, and yet fall all over himself talking about what other companies are investing for the future, when they are producing almost zero vehicles?
     
    #9 bisco, Jul 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2019
  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    In fairness, there is home turf competition in China.
     
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i read bio is having major problems. do you have a ling to china sales numbers?
     
  12. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    Producing almost zero vehicles is only half the problem.
    The other problem is that they aren't installing any coast-to-coast fast chargers. Or any pick-your-off-the-beaten-track destination chargers or fast chargers.

    By the time your average Joe thinks it might be a good time to go try out one of these new-fangled battery cars he's going to find out that only one brand can get you more than a day's drive away.

    Meanwhile, the old guard thinks they are crafty like the bicyclist drafting in the back of the pack -- waiting for Tesla's federal rebates to fully expire, thinking that a $7500 rebate is going to cover up the fact that they can't get their battery supply and can't charge away from home many places.

    Mike
     
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  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    A Model 3 owner, I have a bias. But even using the EPA numbers from http://www.fueleconomy.gov, I don't see serious competition and try to follow what is going on:
    I agree the financials from this quarter (and the year) are important to see the profit margins.
    Unlike the traditional manufacturers, Tesla products are built from the ground up to be EVs. The others try to swap out an ICE drivetrain in lightly modified body. The net effect is their cars have high electrical energy consumption which requires a larger battery which adds weight which increases the electrical energy consumption. It is not a virtuous cycle. Worse, the charger.

    If I have a problem with fast DC, Tesla charging, I call one number. The others are faced with two calls, the charging company and their EV vendor. Worse, I've tested Electrify America chargers in Manchester TN and only 2/3 attempts work and of the ones that worked, I had to try each station to find one that worked. Did I mention they are expensive?

    TSLA

    As a stock owner who recently increased his holdings, there is a SHORT pattern:
    • buy stock when prices are low - this covers their margin
    • sell 'borrowed' stock when prices are high - how they make the income
    • buy stock when prices are low - this covers their margin
    • sell 'borrowed' stock when prices are high - how they make the income
    • . . .
    TSLA stock has been down nearly 100 points but the past 60 days, More recently, I noticed the SHORT propaganda about Tesla had 'abated' which is needed to have higher stock prices to "borrow and sell." You have to read the financial news to even notice.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #13 bwilson4web, Jul 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2019
  14. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    2018 had a slight drop in auto sales, and it is steeper for 2019.
    • China: car sales 2008-2019 | Statista

    NEV(new energy vehicle, majority plug in) sales have been growing.
    "NEV sales held up well in this environment, so far. Volume increased 106 % in the 1st half, 68 % in the 2nd half of 2018 and 79 % for the year. China reached 1,1 million NEV passenger cars, plus 60 000 light commercial vehicles, corresponding to a market share of 4,2 % in the light vehicle sector. In December, their share was as high as 7,6 %. January results came in very strong, preliminary February results were more normal." - EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database
    EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database

    This site has figures for brands and models if you want to dig yourself. Chinese Car Sales Data - Left-Lane.com
    Most plug ins' efficiency are in the range of Tesla. They might be 15% or so worse than a model 3, but still over 100mpge, with the lower efficiency ones being older models.
    Fuel Economy
    There are these three stand outs. Compare Side-by-Side


    In addition to weight, the i-Pace and e-tron use energy draining permanent magnet motors for the asymmetrical AWD system. Don't know what is up with the BYD, but I remember the earlier Coda being a FSP of an EV too.
     
  15. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    Funny that the industry's big response to compete with the Model 3 are the two lowest in efficiency (74 and 76 MPGe)...over 40% lower.

    Mike
     
  16. ice9

    ice9 Active Member

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    There is no competition and they're up only 3,450 in sales?
     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Perhaps you might elaborate on what "energy draining" occurs?

    Bob Wilson
     
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    what increase would satisfy you?
     
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  19. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    +1;).

    Anytime you exceed plans or expectations is a good thing:).

    There stock today is showing very positive in response .
     
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  20. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    For the same time period, Prime sales were up 309, and the Bolt's down 351. That's with some generous manufacturer incentives.
    Tesla's increase there is over double what they sold most months.
    If the Prime and Bolt sales trends continue, neither will reach 20,000 for the year.
    The Model 3 has sold 7.86 times as many Primes.

    Tesla Update: Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard: June 2019
    None of these cars have a symmetrical AWD system. At times, like when steady speed cruising, the secondary motor will not be used and de-energized.

    The Model 3 uses an induction motor up front for AWD. When off, there is no magnetic field. The only efficiency hit is the spinning of the rotor and half shafts, which isn't much.

    The ipace, and I believe the e-tron, use a permanent magnet for the AWD motor. So there is always a magnetic field. Said field applies a braking action through the attraction forces to the spinning rotor when the motor isn't energized. Looking at it another way, permanent magnet motors are only an efficiency boost when powered for the entire trip.
     
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