Tesla readies smaller, cheaper crossover, sedan by 2017

The Prius battery weighs ~175 lbs IIRC. And gets you 10-15 miles of range. The Tesla battery weighs 1200 lbs and gets you 300 miles. So (roughly) to get a 500 mile range you need 2000 lbs of battery. That is why you have a 10+ gallon gas tank (roughly) 75 lbs when full of gas vs a 5 gallon tank (about 38 lbs when full). A 250 mile EV, compared to a 500 mile EV is a 1000 lb penalty (plus extra suspension, plus extra length, etc) vs a gas car that is a 38-50 lb penalty which is just like a piece of luggage.

Put another way carrying around an extra 200 miles of battery range is like carrying around an extra 100 gallons of gas.

I think the answer here is obvious...unless you think that it is OK to not have any airbag since a typical trip has no crashes.

Mike

 

Exactly my point Mike.
Getting every inefficient aspect out of a car isn't something most people want to do.
Now, the safety devices are obviously more important than extra range.

However, the discussion came about comparing the range of the current Tesla. So a more appropriate comparison would be the added weight from a 80 mile pack to the 265 mile pack.

 

Those batteries are heavy and expensive, that is why when you get past X, it makes more sense to add quick chargers or range extenders (volt type ice or fuel cells etc). Weight isn't that much of a problem though, the 60kwh tesla S still gets rated at 97 mpge highway, where those long miles count, this is about 5% more than the much smaller batteried new more efficient leaf. The problem really is cost and volume. CARB seemed to set X at 300 for certain incentives. Tesla should be able to determine the real number. The pack must at least be large enough to give strong acceleration, which is anouther factor against a 75 mile pack.
Compare Side-by-Side

Probably not, that is even worse in volume terms. Tesla is making the batteries part of the chasis structure. But your point is correct. There are problems going over that said 200 mile range, the 85kwh pack drops highway fuel economy another 7%. The difference between 200 miles and 400 miles is likely 20% in combined fuel economy.

I see nothing wrong with 2 airbags, I don't think the statisitcs show much more safety in having 10 over 2. I feel like with super chargers the advantage of 400 miles versus 200 miles also won't make a huge difference. We do know that the 2012 leafs 73 miles was not viewed as usefull as 200 miles.

 

No love for the Volt, huh? The price will get there in a couple of years, I bet.

 

No, I like the volt, but whenever I make any positive comment about it there are large shouts against it. GM could be that manufacturer that produced the right EREV for the market, or it could be toyota, or someone else. i rather think the phev solution is much cleaner than carrying a trailer. Having the ice in the vehicle allows its use for heating or emergency power. The biggest disadvantage of the ice is CARB zev credits, and the necessity of using better emissions controls standards than a drag along which adds to cost.

 

Video: Elon Musk Discusses Tesla Model S Supercharger Expansion, Cheaper Future Tesla and So Much More

 

You are not a luddite concerning big batteries in cars. Technology needs to get the current sized batts smaller, lighter, more powerful and cost effective for use in cars. This is the only way EV will be able to come close to matching the energy density in gasoline. Until then, we are stuck with what is currently on the market.

DBCassidy

 

You are forgetting the energy density contained in the 10 gallon tank. How much, heavy, bulky, and expensive batteries (current technology) would one need to get the same amount of energy derived from gasoline?

DBCassidy

 

Me too and there are a lot of people just like us. As far as costs creeping UP with a startup company like Tesla, who is also investing in infrastructure, I will disagree. Costs will go DOWN.

The many S owners around here who I talk to absolutely do not see it as a toy, it's a primary driving vehicle, and they happen to have the money to spend on luxury. I don't, but I will spend it on an electric with a 250+ mile range for less than $35,000; and if I put in a solar system at my home, I'm golden. I know I'm not alone.

 

I would have to disagree with you that having a large battery is "lugging around dead weight". There is one specific instance where I think this would be quite advantageous, and that is if the vehicle has vehicle-2-grid (v2G)capability.

Let's start by assuming that a mid-size sedan with similar range as the Model S comes out soon (from any carmaker) with a price that's affordable by the average new-car buyer.

Without all the luxury bells and whistles of the Model S, it would instantly lose a great deal of cost and weight. Thus, having a similar range to the Model S would - let's say - require a 70 kwh pack.

Well, the average commuter would probably only need 20 kwh for daily commuting, good for 60 miles....more than enough for a 40 mile commute with extra reserves for A/C use or heavy traffic.

That leaves 50 kwh available for V2G. Assume the necessary billing agreements can be struck with the local utility. The owner can charge up at night and buy electricity for $.05/kwh (many areas of the country actually have surplus wind energy at night and sell at NEGATIVE rates).
Let's assume the 50 kwh can then be sold back into the grid during peak hours for $.15/kwh. That represents a "profit" of $.10/kwh x 50 kwh = $5/day. If the cost of charging the 20 kwh used for commuting was 20 kwh x $.05 = $1, then this means the driver is actually being paid $4/day for driving around with 'all that dead weight' !!

Multiply this by 365, and you MAKE $1460/year x 5 years = $7300. Then, considering that this sedan is already significantly more affordable than the Model S - say $40,000 - and it becomes a very attractive proposition.

 

Scorpion, how many of your neighbors are filling their garages up with batteries to profit off V2G ?
How many utilities are building towers of batteries to time shift their cheap wind power ?

But you want to buy expensive Tesla batteries at retail for this business proposition ? I don't think so.
The other problem is that your use of the Tesla battery is going to shorten the life of the pack; you are risking deep discharge by the utility; and for most people, the high tier rates are when they want to draw electricity too.

 

Slightly more profitable than collecting/selling recyclable cans!

 

Several comments on this.

1) If it was economical to buy mobile batteries, charge at night then discharge during the day, don't you think that utilities would already be doing this with cheaper non-mobile batteries with big economies of scale. Or maybe it is just that the utilities have been ~forced regulated into buying PV solar (a good thing) at high day time rates to help homeowners pay back their solar costs.

2) There are no V2G cars or even any standards as of now. Mostly all V2G would need to happen while people are parked at work. It is difficult enough to get companies to install regular charging stations, much less also install more equipment that allows special grid sensing V2G chargers, so you can make money from the utility. If we want companies to install chargers (and we do), they should do it so that the most employees get the most benefit in terms of being able to not worry about being able to get back home.

3) Regulations vary for each utility, but most that allow time-of-use charging and selling back to the utility only do so to allow you to have net-zero billing for an entire year. IOW you are only allowed to "generate" as much as you use. Primarily this is so you can recoop small PV solar (or wind?). But you are not allowed, at these prices, to compete with the utility. Sure, buying at night and selling during the day on a kwh basis would never make you a net-generator.

4) Seriously, if this is such a good idea, why would you "want" to carry around 40 or 50 kwh of batteries, decreasing the efficiency of your car in order to provide a service to the utility (for money) rather than buy more, cheaper, bigger, heavier batteries and keep them at home where they would "always" be grid connected, thus being available for the utility 24/7?

Mike

 

Absolutely right, this is not for today, but likely in a state like texas is will work out 5 years from now. That would be about the time tesla would be selling the new lower priced model, and volumes may be high enough to support V2G. I don't think california will get its regulatory act together enough to do this for at least a decade.

There are pilot projects going on in ERCOT with fixed batteries right now. ERCOT has a great deal of wind, and wants to build more, it also has a large variance where ineffient old electrical plants supply peak power. Peak hours are 3pm-7pm in the summer, so this would entail the smart grid that has already been built. The grid could choose to charge the car with excess wind at night, or more quickly charge it by a certain time in the morning. After the drive to work, on days that it was likely that battery power would be needed, the car would be recharged. When troughs in power occur the batteries would give back to the grid, leaving a safety margin set by the user to drive home. Once driven home the car would again act as a buffer. I don't think it would be hard for employers like whole foods, or facebook, or google to put in chargers as an employee benefit. They already have some chargers here.

The things that will make the economics work, is that if this scheme works the batteries when depleted will have a resale value to the grid. Say the utility will agree to pay you 25% of the price when depleted to 75% capacity. It might be worthwhile to get a 70kwh pack, instead of a 20kwh, and be able to take longer trips in a bev. If these batteries are carried in a car like the tesla S, many would not mind the extra weight, and would appreciate the extra range.

 

SageBrush, some primers:

V2G | ChargedEVs
Electric Cars: Pentagon places big bet on vehicle-to-grid technology -- Tuesday, February 5, 2013 -- www.eenews.net
Smart Grid: V2G Primer for Utilities
Vehicle-to-Grid Technology: Electric Cars Become Power-Grid Batteries | Guest Blog, Scientific American Blog Network


As I explained below, your neighbors will not fill their garages with batteries because there is no secondary benefit to doing so. Ditto for utilities, the capital expenditure does not justify the benefits.
The car owner is not "buying expensive Tesla batteries at retail for this business proposition". The car owner is buying expensive Tesla batteries so that he or she will have a highway-capable EV with no range anxiety for daily commuting. The V2G capability is a "fringe benefit" that enable the owner to make money, recoup some of the up-front costs of buying a long-range EV, and thus make it more affordable for the average Joe than it otherwise would be.
Your point of increased battery wear is well-taken, but you may want to read the above links. In particular, Professor Kempton has done extensive research and found that the extra wear is not as bad as it may seem just looking at charge-discharge cycles.
There are, of course, several ways around this, from the carmaker offering a shorter warranty for those who use V2G, to outright leasing of the battery, whereby the car owner leases the battery from the utility, and thus does not have to worry about warranty or degradation.
I am not sure what you meant by most people drawing electricity at high-tier rates......my understanding is most EV drivers charge up at night, and having a surplus to feed in precisely when others are needing electricity at peak hours is what leads to the extra $/kwh.

 

OK.

My point was that "if" it was economical to do, then the utilities would already be doing it with cheaper batteries. In your prior post you gave the math showing how you would be making a profit doing this. (buying at 5 cents and selling at 15 cents per kwh). What I am saying is that this calculation cannot be true, given any amount of capital investment cost for the batteries...else the utilities would already be doing it.

Also, I am not saying that any of the V2G proposals aren't technically possible. Sure they are. But there are no standards (yet), and thus every charging station in existance and being installed does not allow this. AND, the idea that millions of EVs will be sold that support this and their owners will support it is a long, long, long ways away (if ever). And this is besides the point that it probably does not make any sense, economically when you consider the true range between buy/sell and the true cost of battery degradation.

You have to consider the fact that in order to really make a difference, the grid needs megawatt-sized numbers. (Else the whole thing is just an annoyance to the utilities). Statistically, the most profitable time for a utility to buy back power is just before (and after) most people start the commute back home. This shrinks the potential number of available batteries for the grid. Are people really going to sit at work for an extra hour just so they can sell back $0.30 of power to the grid? Mostly, No. Sure, a few of us early adopters might do something like this...but then we already have EVs and PHEVs without this feature.

Thought experiment: Assume every EV/PHEV and charging station had V2G capability. Assume some percentage were signed up to do this. Assume some percentage were available when the grid needed the power. Now add up all the additional expenditures put in place (extra batteries, degraded life, charger grid tie-sensing, utility accounting and management, etc). Now would all that money spent have been able to be put to better use some other way, such as pumped water storage or underground compressed air storage, solar thermal storage, etc?

My opinion is that designing large-scale utility grade storage will be cheaper (still very expensive) because V2G relies on too many factors outside the control of the utilities. Most of the time the marginal rate (delta between buy/sell prices) will be very small. It will only be (relatively) large on a dozen or two hot summer afternoons.

Mike

 

For v2g the oldest pilot program was in denmark and started in 2011
EVs Don’t Have To Wait for V2G to Help Balance the Grid | PluginCars.com

Tesla also has been working with PG&E since 2007
Green Car Congress: PGE and Tesla to Research Smart Recharging Vehicle-to-Grid Technology

The DOD is setting up some v2g microgrids with solar and diesel generators ballanced by vehicle batteries.

NRG is setting up a system in Delaware.
NRG Energy launches nation's 1st commercial-scale V2G project

Think 5 years out and a place with lots of wind and a good plug-in market like texas or denmark. These things might work.