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Tesla Set to Exceed 500K deliveries this 2020

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by hill, Sep 3, 2020.

  1. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Guess you need to reread it. It mentions vehicles.
     
  2. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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  3. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    California has incentives for both plug ins and FCEVs. No reason why Germany can't do the same.

    The article sees to not be fully upfront on the facts.
    "...hydrogen is comparatively easy to transport so can be useful as an energy carrier..."
    That's a bit of a stretch. Hydrogen can act like a halogen, elements that include chlorine, which means it could corrode materials. Then it's size allows it to find ways out of its container. The needed materials and construction techniques means higher costs than for other gases, like natural gas. Though, if you can't put down underwater electric cables for whatever reason, you can ship hydrogen on boats.

    "If there are existing gas pipelines, they can also be used to transport hydrogen to shore, which makes the new technology also relevant for abandoned offshore gas fields."
    You can't pump hydrogen through old natural gas or oil pipelines. They won't hold up to the element. Part of the reason for the high cost for hydrogen infrastructure is that we can't use existing pipelines for it.

    BMW is planning a small series of FCEV cars, using some Toyota tech, for 2022.
    BMW to pilot second-generation hydrogen fuel cell drives in small series from 2022 - Green Car Congress

    Earlier this year, Daimler announced they were ending hydrogen car development, but I've had some articles in my feed about their FCEV commercial trucks they are working on.
    Daimler ends hydrogen car development because it's too costly - Electrek

    VW is taking the same path as Daimler.
    VW Thinks Hydrogen Tech Is More Suitable For Commercial Vehicles Than Passenger Cars | Carscoops

    For commercial trucks, hydrogen FCEVs might succeed. There is plenty of space on the chassis for the fuel tanks, and the drive could end up lighter than a battery in a BEV truck. The needed hydrogen infrastructure isn't as extensive.
     
    #23 Trollbait, Oct 11, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2020
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  4. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    ‘This does not contradict ‘helping Tesla’ in any way.
    They are talking about producing hydrogen with power from wind generators without transmission lines to shore.
    This is a wonderful way to make hydrogen for a wide variety of uses.
    As the paper mentions, the hydrogen can be used in a wide variety of applications.

    Use in industrial applications would be much more efficient than use in light duty vehicles. The above paper doesn’t change that.

    I applaud Germany for proposing such an idea and hope they move forward with this concept.
    I also applaud them for supporting Tesla as much as they have.
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    But z, that means they must have told musk to get lost. Read the article again:rolleyes:
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    IMHO, China, Germany, and Austin want Tesla facilities so their best and brightest won’t leave and go to Fremont.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    It has remained a justification claim of fuel cell advocates for a very long time. But they ignore grid-level battery storage as well as basic thermal dynamics. Oh well, a fuel and their money are soon parted.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Germany has some plots of sea that are viable for off shore wind. For one of these plots, running a transmission line to the shore isn't possible. There are abandoned gas/oil platforms in the area that can serve as locations for electrolyzers, and the hydrogen can be shipped to shore. Batteries can fill many roles, but filling ships with them for just for moving electricity from where it's produced to where it's used probably isn't the best one for them.

    Germany is a little like Japan in that they import over half their petroleum and 97% of their natural gas. Which is probably why they lead Europe on the hydrogen front. The hydrogen from this proposed project can be used to offset some NG imports by blending it into the supply, even if hydrogen vehicles fail to happen. Using electrolyzers means they might be able to upgrade the sites for methane or methanol production later on.
     
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  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Fully charged did several Orkney Island reports a couple of years ago and they too tried wind-to-hydrogen. An “A” effort but I was not impressed when I saw the tank trailer.

    If the Germans made anhydrous ammonia, I could see that working much better than raw hydrogen. But best is to build wind farms close to grid batteries.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  10. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    No - the article says this scheme is 1 of 38 methods to bring hydrogen to use ... nothing to necessarily relate to cars .... and much more likely to be used for industry ... especially considering how sales of the Mirai have wayned over the past 3 years ... making hydrogen cars to look more & more a victim of BEV's success. Even the US sales are on the decline ... see below;
    yhdrogenHype.jpg

    Toyota has only been able to push a few hundred onto Europeans since 2016. It's no wonder - according the the Mirai article on Wiki the EU presidents says;
    So ... even if Mirai costs were shaved 10 fold by 2021 ... it'd still be a $6,000 a piece looser ... not including stunts like in the US, where Toyota gives away $15,000 in fuel. It makes one wonder how many battery factories could have been built via hydrogen R&D - had not all the money gone down the hydrogen highway dead end.
    .
     
    #30 hill, Oct 25, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2020
  11. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Who spent what on their car? Tesla cost significantly more than for a CPO Mirai at this time, with $15k fuel card and 0% interest. It’s basically free for first 3 years of ownership.
     
  12. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    hydrogen resale ; that's about the most sunny way anyone has ever heard the world's worse-ever depreciation in history - ever spun. Closely edging out the Yugo & the Chevy Vega

    .
     
  13. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Mirai has been a bargain since new - at $59k before rebates and incentives it is a great deal. But as a previously owned vehicle with Toyota incentives It is a steal and you can mock all you want, but how many folks would initially have bought a Tesla without all the federal and state rebates. Mirai trailblazers are being rewarded for being the first by Toyota support and recognition by them with lots of perks. Thank you Toyota!!
     
  14. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    It is fascinating how you can applaud Mirai buyers for getting such a great deal. Then, in the next sentence dismiss Tesla saying people would not have bought them without incentives.
    Especially since Mirai buyers get so much more incentives than Tesla or other EVs ever did.
     
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  15. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Reread what I wrote.
     
  16. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    well ok ... in short - Mirai is a bargain (even though they have to give them away once returned used) & who would buy a Tesla without incentives (even though hundreds of thousands have done so now - after their incentives expired).
    Pretty much sums it up.
    Maybe re-read the title of the op ..... ½Million tesla sales in one year. At the hydrogen rate of progress? just keeping the used hydrogen on the road? plus hoping to God they'll keep keeping their massive incentives? Somehow not costing a fortune to build and maintain fuel stations? Cutting hydrogen fuel cost 3x? In that perfect world, it would be (at a minimum) - another 10 years to even MATCH Tesla. Sure, it could happen, in theory. But it's as likely as a tornado swirling across a salvaged scrap metal yard whipping a Rolex into existence. That's not really a reality.
    .
     
    #36 hill, Nov 6, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2020
  17. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Well back in 1957 Toyota launched sales in the USA, look at Toyota now, Top selling car in the USA - Camry - 2nd largest manufacturer in the world, one of three top selling luxury vehicles in the USA. Don’t count out what Toyota can do with the Mirai and Hydrogen.
     
  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    You're comparing used to new, and the used needed a lot of "cash on the hood."

    More are buying Tesla with the federal incentive gone. How many do you think would have leased a Mirai without all those state and Toyota incentives?

    The Mirai is doing much better than Hyundai's and Honda's FCEV. But how far do you think hydrogen will get when there is just three car models supporting the infrastructure? There is at least nine car companies in the US with zero plans to even offer a hydrogen model in the next few years. Is California and Toyota going to keep funneling money to the hydrogen stations? You aren't supporting them, you got your hydrogen for free.
     
  19. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Still getting the state incentives...
     
  20. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Don’t count the Europeans out, they are still interested and will probably wait and see how hydrogen progresses in the USA. But BMW, Audi and other legacy makers are all watching, not to mention there trucking manufacturers are coming soon.