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Tesla stock

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Aug 6, 2018.

  1. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    china is a risk, but musk is a risk taker
     
  3. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    looking good!
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    markets down, tesla up nearly 5%
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    It should hit a local peak about three days before the production and sales number are released, September 28-29. We should have the production and sales numbers Oct 2.

    There will also be great deals offered by Tesla the week of Sep 25-29. But you'll have to be ready to take delivery in that week.

    The next window will be the last week of December.

    Bob Wilson
     
  7. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    How are the holders feeling now?

    Up 14% over the past 1 year but down 26% YTD.
     
  8. TMR-JWAP

    TMR-JWAP Senior Member

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    Yeah, Tesla is pretty volatile..
     
  9. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    This holder is feeling great, about the stock. If I were still working I would buy more.
    I also feel it is time to lock Elon in an engineering lab, kick him off the board, and give him a new title that doesn't include CEO, president, or the such.
     
  10. TMR-JWAP

    TMR-JWAP Senior Member

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    Unfortunately, there's likely quite a few people out there that aren't feeling as great as you do, if they bought in the 260 range and just watched 30% vaporize in a few days. Such is the way the market moves......TSLA has been too prone to big moves every time someone gets their panties in a wad for me to feel comfortable putting money into for a while now. All it takes is some more shift of sentiment and it could go below 100. If it does, I'll probably nibble a bit. It's going to be hard pressed to move back up a significant amount for at least several months, but I sure as heck won't bet against it.
     
  11. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I don't see it going under 100. The market hates uncertainty, and Elon gave them tons of it yesterday.
    As Tesla continues to execute, that market nervousness will dissipate and we will get some semblance of reality creeping back in.
    The 'slow down' in growth is a roughly 34% level of growth. Many companies would love that level of growth.

    And once the Model 2 (name undecided) hits in 2025, growth will be limited only be Tesla's ability to produce.
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i wouldn't make any changes to elons status, and give him the stock he's looking for.
    he may be the cause of short term anxiety, but his track record deserves long term faith.
     
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  13. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    Elon Musk says Chinese EV companies will 'demolish' competition without tariffs (msn.com)

    "Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Wednesday warned that Chinese automakers will "demolish" their global competition without tariffs or other trade barriers.
    His comments come after Chinese electric car company BYD, which makes cheaper cars and is backed by Berkshire-Hathaway, surpassed Tesla as the top-selling EV company last quarter."

    Tesla Q4 Earnings Reaction: 'Train Wreck' Call, Production Warning Hit Stock (businessinsider.com)

    Elon Musk is an insignificant part of what is going on with the Tesla stock situation right now. If he would completely disappear it would have no effect on the dynamics that are pressuring Tesla success right now.

    Tesla is in a space where competition, demand, raw materials, technologies are rapidly changing - throw in unpredictable government regulation/meddling responses from all over the world and you have a witches' brew of uncertainty.

    Hopefully this important American Company will find its footing and have a place in the car industry when this all begins to shake out. Automotive Manufacturing is going through some unpredictable/uncharted territory right now. No one is sure who is going to be left standing.
     
    #1413 John321, Jan 27, 2024
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2024
  14. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    About December 2021 I expressed concern after reading an article on Fortune whose main foundation was the future profit margin and future volume of sales that Tesla would need to achieve to justify the price it was then selling for (~$407).

    It is now $183.

    There remain:
    • Geopolitical risks (China).
    • Supply chain risks (China, shipping)
    • Management erratic behavior
    • Increased competition in the same space (Can you say Chine again)
    • Protectionism
    • National champion buying
    • Risk of new technology obsoleting current advantages (600 mile batteries, solid state, etc announced every day)
    • Expansion expenses (Model 2, India, Mexico)
    • Management burnout
    • Workforce aging and taking their stock options and leaving
    • Too many balls in the air (Chargers, solar, rockets, satellites, communications)
    • FSD lawsuits demanding refunds of amounts paid plus penalty
    • Accumulated effect of anti-EV/Tesla press
    • Not the new shiny thing any more

    You invest for future profits. All of these threaten future Tesla profit levels even at its current level.
     
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  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Like betting at a craps table, there are conflicting opinions about TSLA. So this is my speculation:
    [​IMG]

    • Everyone who bought above $180 is at risk of locking in a loss
      • Raise my hand, $240, rounding up TSLA holdings
    • Those who read the quarterly results see:
      • Year-over-Year substantially higher performance
      • Capital expenditure (future growth fertilizer) nearly 2x
      • Austin and Berlin on rapidly ascending "S" curve
      • Freemont and Shanghai setting records
      • Inflation steady . . . customers can afford
    So I've got some budgeted spare capital and want to add shares:
    • Half of shares pending at $180.
    • After that, the other half in shares at $160.
    Like any bet at a craps table, the dice will fall without favor or impartiality. But the market has institutional investors who may be more "risk adverse" and need a week or the end of this month, to commit to taking a loss. If so, I'll get my first $180 tranche ... what I want.

    The second will be more speculative for 60 days at $160. A low probability bet, the payoff will come after the Q1 2024 report.

    So there is a method to my madness . . . buy low and sell high. Right now, I don't need the money so I'm content with my holdings.

    NO ONE ELSE SHOULD FOLLOW MY EXAMPLE!


    Bob Wilson
     
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  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    I’m buying all your dips and selling all your peaks
     
  17. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Your crystal forecasting ball is much more clear than mine, which is made of obsidian. Very opaque.
     
    #1417 fuzzy1, Jan 28, 2024
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2024
  18. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    This affects the whole market

    Yes an issue, but not as bad as management being run by the UAW and dealers
    (Are we all in on EVs or are we cutting back to keep ICE jobs and make dealers happy doing oil changes?)

    Affects lots of industries...semi-conductor chips for example
    The least important item in your list
    All such changes to battery tech will take much longer than the press releases say. Before they affect any real sales you have to have a large number of DC fast chargers installed. And who is making and installing most of these, at least in the US. Who has to know about how to charge these before they can install chargers?
    You have to spend money to make money. You have to have money to invest in new plants.

    You got me on this. I wasn't counting on the turnover by the Tesla competition giving up as fast as they are.
    What car company ranks higher than Tesla on lists like these?
    Power Employers: The Most Sought-After Companies by US Students | Observer

    Better than having no balls ... I mean no balls in the air (Oops, did I say that?)

    Yeah, could happen
    Look how long it took for people to figure out what a hybrid is. There are still more people than don't know about EVs and most anything written about them just educate more people
    Cybertruck, Semi, and Model 2 (or whatever they call it) have some shininess, IMO.

    Mike
     
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  19. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    3PriusMike

    Never said they all happen. Just any could.

    The Fortune article is still an interesting read if you plug in the numbers from the last quarter instead of the ones they were using two years ago. https://fortune.com/2021/11/30/tesla-shares-hertz-musk-tsla-stock-price-trillion-dollar-company/ as is the article that immediately followed it titled following the flock about meme stocks and manias

    Answer for yourself what number of cars sold at what margin will justify what price.

    Look at Tesla Dividend Discount Model - Stable Growth | Tesla Inc (TSLA) for some models and their predictions. They are from value investors models.

    Ask yourself if Tesla is still a meme stock or has it matured to the point where it should be valued like any other company.

    When is the last time you read or heard good things about EVs in the non-enthusiast press?

    If other companies' stocks are affected while Tesla is, the others are at lest priced today at very different multiples than Tesla. A bright future is already priced in to Tesla. Tesla stock has more room to fall. (up today)

    It will be interesting to come back to this in another year when we can see what has happened.
     
  20. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Tesla is still maturing. They are still in the rapid growth phase.
    You can't value a growth company using a value model, it just does not work. It's like measuring weight with a ruler.

    In addition to, looking solely at the number of cars Tesla sells will never add up to the value of the company, as the company has an energy division which is looking to become a larger part of the profits than the automotive part.
     
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