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Tesla stock

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Aug 6, 2018.

  1. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    I recall people doing that with a little online bookseller 20+ years ago.
    Also, with a little DVD by mail company 20+ years ago.

    Luckily I paid no attention to them

    Maybe 4 or 5 years

    Mike
     
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  2. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    Exactly.
    Just look how happy the people are who consolidated into Enron and stuck with it.

    Hopefully Tesla an American Company will be fine.

    I believe all the gentleman was making people aware of what was the inherent danger in putting all you eggs into one basket and tripping busting most of the eggs.

    His suggestion seemed to me to be, why not put your eggs into multiple baskets and multiple basket carriers with an index fund that contains 10 to 15 automakers their suppliers etc.- then you are in the auto sector and if one basket falls and bust so what you have 14 more baskets.

    Actually risk takers who consolidate into one holding and live and die with the market are what build value for conservative individuals who hold all of the market- their loses turn into gains for those who are invested in the whole market.
     
    #1422 John321, Jan 30, 2024
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2024
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Elon once said he wanted factory automation so that air resistance would limit production speed. But quick as a cat, he realized the existing robots were too dumb and inflexible. So he brought in humans and Tesla survived.

    He still wants an automated factory but realized he and his coworkers have to design and build the machines he wants. People copy Elon’s work because they can’t think faster and further ahead.

    No Elon’s machines like him are not perfect. But only have to be better than the competition.

    Bob Wilson
     
  4. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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  5. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    Thanks for that. What about warnings to not drive too fast or while DUI.
    And please wear your seatbelts.
    And carry some emergency supplies in case your car breaks down or there is an earthquake.
    And carry plenty of water to stay hydrated.
    And some paper maps in case the GPS system goes down.
    :)

    Mike
     
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    I’m up $370.
     
  7. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    Go back to message 1173 in this thread where I referred to several November 2011 Forbes articles about Tesla and its valuations. They were based on the projected size of the market for EVs, the % that would have to be Teslas and the profit margins they would have to achieve to justify the price (adjusted) then.

    I post this on a day when Tesla is up 2.5% to $175.66 (adjusted). Then (adjusted) it was as high as $407.

    The market for EVs is slowing in % terms, the competition is increasing and Tesla is buying sales. Buyers have learned how to game the market by waiting till the last days of the quarter to buy. So all the dependencies are under pressure.

    Yet Tesla can't build enough Semis (but they are going to build more RSN), the reviews of the CT are turning negative, they spend money on a roadster that may never come out (which can shed tires at 1 second accelerations according to Elon), they build factories that he only needs for geopolitical reasons (tariffs, ownership restrictions), all 4 mainline products are aging, FSD and stalkless controls and steering yokes are putting some off. Innovation for ego's sake. Elon becomes more erratic and public sentiment on products and management decline.

    On the good side the robotics used to build the CT are getting good reviews and the plans to build a $25k car in a cheaper labor market need to be accelerated as competition is coming at that price point from many sources. What will the competition be like when the Model 2 is able to sell in volume?
     
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  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Valid comments:
    However, in the past 60 days, I bought two tranche at $180 and $165. I posted the following on Sunday March 17:

    Swiss UBS analyst recently predicts substantially reduced Tesla deliveries. If we note the Giga Berlin lost production from the sabotage, -8,000 Model Y, we come up with -8,000 / 432,000 ~= -1.8%. Far less than UBS claimed loss of 7-10%.

    I suspect we're going to see substantial Tesla production growth, especially Q2, because of the factory attack. Musk, management, and employees will use the attack to motivate for higher production. Individually, small efforts but cumulative, huge. My expectation is 2 million vehicles in 2024 and possibly by Q3.

    At the same time, ICE cars have entered the 'valley of death.'
    [​IMG]

    This comes from two effects:

    • EV Wright's Law Positive- supplies for EVs will see significant price reductions due to higher production efficiencies and competition. For example, the crash of lithium carbonate: [​IMG]
    • ICE Wright's Law Negative - foolishly the ICE manufactures have tried to adopt EV prices but their suppliers are failing due to lower orders. Higher production costs from suppliers and labor will erode ICE profits. Worse, legacy car dealers are reported to be reluctant EV sellers.
    BTW, here is an e-mail received from Tesla this morning:

    Keep Your FSD and Get a New Color

    As a Tesla owner you are eligible to transfer your Full-Self Driving Capability to a new Tesla. Purchase a new vehicle from our existing inventory and we will cover the cost of either a paint or interior color upgrade.* Take delivery by March 31, 2024 to be eligible.

    You are also eligible to receive up to 10,000 miles Free Supercharging when you place your order by March 19, 2024 and trade in your current vehicle.** Terms and conditions apply and are subject to change.

    Replacing FSD cost $12,000 (I bought it early for $6,000), saving $6,000. My blue paint cost in 2019 was $1,600. The 10,000 miles Supercharging is ~$875.


    I think we'll know Tesla true Q1 production and sales numbers 1st of April in 13 days. Between now and then, 'the dice are out' and we'll know soon enough.

    Bob Wilson

    ps. I am a life long, "techno" who will always vote for a newer technology. Discussing advanced technology that has been demonstrated even in small numbers will always attract me. Manufacturing is hard but it is the only path to making new technology into last week's old technology. BUT I don't expect anyone else to follow my path.
     
    #1428 bwilson4web, Mar 21, 2024
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2024
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  9. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    agree with your post.

    A good way to avoid all the drama - invest in a good index ETF that would include stakes in 8 or 9 different Automotive Manufacturing entities. Automotive Manufacturing is very competitive and cyclical - much too many variables to try and pick winners or losers.
    Nowadays add in geopolitical factors, raw materials acquisition, rapidly changing technology, constantly changing Customer preferences, climate change pressures, emerging third world powerful players in Automobile Manufacturing and you have an absolute witch's brew of unpredictability.
     
    #1429 John321, Mar 21, 2024
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2024
  10. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    And long term higher production costs based on rising worker support of German factory unionization. Either union costs or bribes to vote non union. Both add costs.

    And didn't I read somewhere Mexican unions are starting to ask for a unionized workforce in the to-be-built factory for the M2?
     
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Rising union costs will affect all carmakers.
    Tesla will continue to drive down battery and production costs, and replace workers with machines as time goes by
     
  12. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    But as a not unionized yet car maker, Tesla is uniquely going to be impacted. Both in becoming a union shop and then normal "negotiated" wage increases.
     
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Or they can be competitive and keep the unions out
     
  14. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    But at a cost to today's margins.

    If your costs are constant, you need at least some combination of increasing volume, increasing revenue and/or improving margins to justify a more than average stock P/E multiplier. You don't want more costs at the same time competitive pressure is increasing and you are having to play the today's special deal pricing of the dealer-sold sales model.

    And thus the bet on robotics. But at some point innovation becomes harder or is more widely implemented across the industry.
     
  15. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    But costs aren’t constant.
    So while labor costs go up, scale and innovation bring other costs down.
    Tesla already gave everyone a raise (shortly after the UAW agreement was reached).
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The reviews I'm interested in involve disassembly of the car. There are many not documented but:

    I prefer reviews of the parts and assemblies.

    Bob Wilson
     
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'm down $200. as of friday, but i only have 20 shares.
    i'm in for the long haul and have buy orders in $10. increments downward.
     
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  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My last 2024 tranches were:
    • $165 - full tranche
    • $182 - half tranches
      • $176
      • $188
    Given Friday 3/22 closing at $171 (nearest dollar), I'm running:
    • $171 - last closing
    • -$174 - tranche purchases
    • -$3 - loss of 2024 tranches
    As described earlier, I'm betting the 2024 Q1, production and sales numbers to smack some folks with a "clue by four." Then about 3-4 weeks later, we'll see the profit/loss and capital expenditures. I expect there will be something about the Berlin factory attack.

    Bob Wilson
     
  19. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    OK the production and sales numbers are out. Volume sellers 3/Y down 10% YOY. Over 10% undelivered/unsold. Amazed the stock has held up as well as it has today. -5.6% as I write.
     
  20. sylvaing

    sylvaing Senior Member

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    Their biggest competitor (BYD) has seen an even bigger drop than Tesla. Tesla took the Q1 global lead that it lost in Q4 from BYD. Might be part of the reason why.