The future of ICE vs. BEV

Interesting, no doubt the US and oil producing countries will be last to go to electric.

Here is something I have never heard mentioned. In the future there may be range anxiety because all the gas stations are out of business, can you imagine. There will be charging stations where the gas stations once were and you will have to go inside the convenience store to buy beer, cigarettes and lottery tickets.

 

There is no doubt that ice will be replaced(after the EPA is back in buisness), what actually is best as a replacement?
I'd rather use Hydrogen, 5 minute refill, no range anxiety.

It's not Tesla, not in the US, the average income in the US is 35,000$, the average income of Tesla owners is 375,000$ Tesla is doing it backwards, Tesla should've started with 35,000$ vehicles, after successfully making money with a vehicle that a large portion of Americans could afford....Tesla could've offered more expensive vehicles, but...Tesla started at 75,000$, for a vehicle that is neither a luxury vehicle nor a utility vehicle, meaning, Tesla's are secondary vehicles.

 

I disagree, Tesla makes more money per unit at the beginning and weren't capable of large mass production numbers early on to make a profit. Besides it caught peoples attention.

 

Keep in mind that hydrogen will have a place in our society, but that will almost entirely be on the commercial side. The reach out via passenger vehicles right now is to stimulate support for that. Think about how practical they would be for large business fleets and the certain types of cargo trucks. Educating those who will fund those programs is difficult. Rollouts like this do a great job providing that information.

Plug-In vehicles face serious challenges in the meantime. High-Speed charging is basically non-existent when you consider how rare those stations actually are. There cost for equipment and the physical space they occupy makes them a monumental effort to rollout. A variety of vehicles supporting a minimum rate of 150kW simply aren't going to be realistic for a number of years still. We are very much in the earliest stages of rollout.

In other words, the doom & gloom and conclusions people are already drawing are complete nonsense. There's no reason to take any of that seriously. One thing you can count on though is there will not be a single solution. We are embarking on a multi-technology age where there will be a variety of approaches taken. The one-size-fits-all mindset is not constructive.

 

50 years, check back with me to see if i was right

 

Canada .... finding hydrogen fool cells in commercial busses to be a complete waste.

Vancouver Ends Hydrogen Bus Program Amid High Costs | Gas 2

But who knows. Maybe the costs will come down .... maybe in 10 years? That's been the hydrogen Lobby's mantra - ever since the early 1970's.
(don't shoot the messenger)
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What is the address of your cemetery?

 

15 years ago a guy I worked with had stock in some hydrogen company. I laughed at him. Even if it does happen he and I will both be dead.

 

If it's commercial use for hydrogen, cheaper and easier to switch to natural gas. Can even use fuel cells if that is desired.
Still have the issues of it being a fossil fuel, but the majority of hydrogen in the US is coming for it.

 

I'm thinking most likely future scenario is the gradual phase-out of the personal vehicle, regardless of it's motivation.

 

This may work in a major metropolitan area but flexibility is prized which is why there are so many forms of personal vehicles. As one who just got word that his 3 grandkids may move further away, I'm fortunate that within my lifetime I'll be able to go visit them on my schedule and not some personal vehicle replacement.

 

Looking at where we were 100 years ago...there's no telling what personal transportation will look like 100 years from now.

 

agree. it's changed so little, it will poly be very similar in 2120

 

Self driving cars will be good for the elderly.

 

nope - not true. Even years ago - that number was nearly $10,000 lower.

Average Salary Information for US Workers
So .... in a family of 2 wage earners you can almost double that 'average income to $89K.

again nope - best to give links for your sources - if any - because in reality;
Even the most expensive Tesla, the model X, the household income average is less than your incorrect numbers;

Tesla Owner Demographics by Age, Income, Gender, Home Value
Your uncome #" s are off by a factor of ~2.

The model 3 is roughly ½ the cost of the model X ... even for the midrange. Then there's the used Market ..... as well as the soon-to-be-released short-range version ..... then there will be a used market for those as well.
When you consider the largest % of Tesla's are in California, where the cost of living is way higher, the made-up unaffordable income statistic above looks even worse.

Rule of thumb - especially for younger car buyers ;
Car Affordability Calculator: How Much Car Can I Afford?
don't spend more than ⅓ of pre-tax yearly income for a car.
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