The Google Self Driving Prius ever become a reality?

Darn, the title and the first post ask COMPLETELY different questions. So my answer is Yes! and no. I do not see any dealer, ever, having enough liability insurance to add self driving to a car that did not have it from the factory.

 

It looks nice, but I bet you wont find a State in the USA that will allow it on their streets. Some parts of the technology are already in use, such as collision avoidance/warning systems and self parking.

 

It is legal in NV and CA now.

Google's Self-Driving Car Licensed to Hit Nevada Streets | PCWorld

Self-driving cars now legal in California - CNN.com

 

Maryland hasn't legalized autonomous vehicles yet. That was Florida. 3/50 States currently allow autonomous vehicles, California, Nevada, and Florida. Autonomous systems have been in testing with most Luxury automakers.

I doubt it'll be an option for the Gen 4 Prius but you'll likely see more features similar to the DRCC, LKA, and IPA become available as the technology for full autonomy is refined.

 

Not so fast. They are technology demonstrators.

Nevada:
"The Nevada DMV rules currently limit the state's licensing to test vehicles; enthusiasts need not apply."

Kalifornia:
"The bill, SB 1298, will set up procedures and requirements for determining when the cars are road-ready."

Florida, May 18, 2012:
"The system is not street legal in Florida, but it has taken a huge step out west."

I didnt find that Maryland has passed the registration of self-driven vehicles. It may be there, but I didnt find it.

 

There's always the Johnny Cab from Total Recall.

 

I firmly believe we will see fully autonomous cars for sale in the next 20 or 30 years. It will happen very gradually and piecemeal like features we already are getting like LKA and dynamic cruise control. You can now parallel park without touching anything. I've spent a lot of time watching the videos of the technology they use and it really isn't that farfetched what they can already do. Don't get me wrong, very impressive, but very doable as well.

 

I believe the self-driving Prius is destined to collide with a bevy of lawyers.

 

Many years into the future when there are only self driving cars on the road auto accidents should in theory drop to 0.

 

I think the 20-30 year estimate is a bit pessimistic. Here is my reasoning. There is a tremendous incentive to make this happen. The safety aspect is the primary driver, secondary drivers would be increased road capacity due to the autonomous vehicles, and the decreased need for vehicles as "autonomous taxis" can perform the functions of what had previously been several different cars. Those factors are what make the autonomous vehicle so important.

Safety: Someone mentioned that accident rates will go to 0. Thats unlikely, crazy things will always happen even in the most controlled environments. But close to that is definitely possible. And there will certainly be some very high profile "catastrophic" accidents where the software goes haywire for any number of reason and people get killed. But in those cases, they will find the cause, fix the problem, and then all vehicles will incorporate the new code. The overall safety improvement is too important for a few accidents to stop the eventual transition.

Road Capacity: When you start eliminating the random behavior of individuals, and start replacing their erratic driving with software, you start moving toward much better utilization of the available road space. Think free flowing traffic during rush hour. The cars would be driving closer at somewhat higher speeds. You will see this first in special "autonomous vehicle only" lanes, followed by the rollout into normal traffic. There will be little required road infrastructure improvements, as the "brains" of the system will be in the individual vehicles, and they will communicate with each other. This will keep things much less expensive than if you had to retrofit every mile of road with some kind of wiring or other sensors.

Taxis: This is a broad category, that would cover actual taxis, but also individuals cars. You drive to work, your car sits around for 8 hours, then you drive it home. What if the same car could, while you were at work, deliver 2 other people to work? It makes for much fewer required cars, and opens the possibility of co-ownership of vehicles. Other business models could include autonomous taxis. Also, this would cut down on required parking spaces. Your car dropping you off then whisking off to do something else means no parking space required.

The other main reason I think the 20-30 year estimate is off is because we are talking about what is essentially some computer hardware and software, plus some sensors. The development curve for these kinds of things is pretty quick, just compare the smart phone in your pocket to the one you had 4 years ago. No comparison. The cost of the required hardware (computer and sensors) will drop as fast as other technology products do, and the software will be amortized over the millions of vehicles that it will be running on. The single software program will be tested and verified by the NHTSA, and lessons learned from the actual vehicles deployed will be incorporated into the "verified build" on a daily/weekly basis as required.

My guess: By the end of 2017 (5 years from now), you will be able to purchase a partially autonomous vehicle that you will be able to drive in an autonomous mode on certain stretches of highway somewhere in the US. From there it only gets better.

 

Just hop in the back and take a nap while your 5 year old kid sits in the driver seat.

Would cut down on DWI or DUI. "But officer, I'm not driving!"

Maybe we can put an exhaust-alyser on the car to make sure it hasent been consuming any ethenol.

 

I guess it totally depends on how you define "autonomous mode." Some people would define the combo of LKA and dynamic cruise control as pretty much that already.

Needless to say I hope you are right.

Not sure if you mentioned this or not...but think about how much more productive we could be as a society. Being able to do work things from your smartphone or tablet during the commute could be huge for some people...not to mention much less stressful and more fuel efficient.

 

One other thing is the aging of our society. It would give older people the ability to be more independent.

Japan is in the same mode. That's why they are trying to develop robots that can assist people with their daily chores.

This movie is a spoof of that:

 

I read an article about how the aging population will change public transportation. The author apparently didn't know about developments with autonomous vehicles. I can vision getting in a car 30 years from now and the car saying, Where do you want to go? and me saying, I can't remember.

 

But will an Autonomous Prius still drive in the left lane 20 mph under the speed limit

 

No, because it knows the difference between right and wrong. It is only programmed to do what is right.