The North Pole Is Melting

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by TonyPSchaefer, Sep 22, 2007.

  1. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(malorn @ Sep 26 2007, 07:02 AM) [snapback]517848[/snapback]</div>
    I prefer to say the create mas confusion. Just what the think tanks want. Confuse the masses into inaction. ;)
     
  2. chogan

    chogan New Member

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    The reduction in arctic ice was clear, large in scale, unambiguous, and consistent with global warming.

    The evidence on total antarctic ice mass was ambiguous, small, and, if true, still consistent with global warming.

    Here's a decent if technical discussion of the issue, from last year, discussing the various estimates.

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archi...wfall/#more-319

    It would be a shame if the popular press gave people the erroneous impression that a short-term increase in ice mass in Antarctica was somehow inconsistent with global warming. It's predicted to happen, to some degree, as precipitation increases due to warmer climate elsewhere. Whether and how long the net change in ice mass will be positive is subject to a lot of uncertainty.

    Plus, when you get right down to it, when the homes of both Santa Claus and Superman are at risk, hey, that's news people can relate to. Antarctica needs to get some resident mythical figure if it expects equal press coverage.
     
  3. Devil's Advocate

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(chogan @ Sep 26 2007, 11:32 AM) [snapback]518013[/snapback]</div>
    Yep, Global Warming predicts more ice. This predictions highlights the lunacy of GW, and ignores the truths, that the worlds climate changes.
     
  4. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Devil's Advocate @ 2007 09 26 11:54) [snapback]518029[/snapback]</div>
    People tend to assume that the term 'global warming' means it gets warmer everywhere, but some places will get colder, and some wetter. This is perfectly consistent with the "theory". Yes, climates change, but not as fast as they are now. It's the deniers who are ignoring the truth.
     
  5. chogan

    chogan New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Devil's Advocate @ Sep 26 2007, 02:54 PM) [snapback]518029[/snapback]</div>
    Yep, predicted. Not even hard to understand why. The antarctic remains cold and very dry. Putting a bit more moisture in the air from warmer temps elsewhere adds to precipitation there, so there ought to be more ice formation in the middle of the continent.

    I believe the same thing was predicted and has been measure to occur on the Greenland ice sheet. The whole sheet isn't melting, it's thinning at the edges while getting thicker in the middle. Net in Greenland is estimated to be melt. Net effect in Antarctica is IMHO too small to be called one way or the other.


    Also not hard to understand why it's hard to say one way or the other in the Antarctic. I think I have the facts in order. There are about 25,000,000 (25 million) cubic kilometers of ice in the Antarctic ice sheets. The estimates of the recent annual changes appear to me to be in the range of +/- 200 cubic km (for the ice sheets). Round that up to 250 cubic km to make the long division easy.

    So the estimated annual change in the Antarctic ice sheets is about +/- 0.001% of their mass. Kind of a wonder that it can be estimated at all.

    Edit: Snarky comment removed due to sudden attack of good taste.
     
  6. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Devil's Advocate @ Sep 26 2007, 11:54 AM) [snapback]518029[/snapback]</div>
    LMAO. That is one of he most uninformed responses I've read in this forum in awhile. Thanks :)
     
  7. kingofgix

    kingofgix New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Devil's Advocate @ Sep 26 2007, 02:54 PM) [snapback]518029[/snapback]</div>
    And you highlight the lunacy, and completely clueless nature of the anti-GW crowd. You ignore all the facts, extensive science, and vast quantities of supporting data presented to you and base your position on the "truth" that "the worlds climate changes".

    Its only been said on Priuschat about 10,000 times already, but its the RATE of climate change that is the issue. It is completely unprecendented and it there is no possiblility that the earths systems (or our human economic and support systems) can adapt at a rate to keep pace.
     
  8. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(chogan @ Sep 26 2007, 11:32 AM) [snapback]518013[/snapback]</div>
    Besides the Santa / Superman comment, which was pretty clever I'll admit, I didn't find the Real Climate link to be particularly illuminating. However, I have read from numerous sources in the past that the antarctic cooling is indeed a challenge for climate models and runs against what many may be projecting. I am no model or climate expert, but I found this from the National Science Foundation to be helpful:

    "Pondering a Climate Conundrum in Antarctica
    Unique, distinct cooling trend discovered on Earth's southernmost continent


    Antarctica overall has cooled measurably during the last 35 years - despite a global average increase in air temperature of 0.6 degrees Celsius during the 20th century - making it unique among the Earth's continental landmasses, according to a paper published today in the online version of Nature.

    Researchers with the National Science Foundation (NSF) Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) site in Antarctica's Dry Valleys - a perpetually snow-free, mountainous area adjacent to McMurdo Sound - argue in the paper that long-term data from weather stations across the continent, coupled with a separate set of measurements from the Dry Valleys, confirm each other and corroborate the continental cooling trend.

    "Our 14-year continuous weather station record from the shore of Lake Hoare reveals that seasonally averaged surface air temperature has decreased by 0.7 degrees Celsius per decade," they write. "The temperature decrease is most pronounced in summer and autumn. Continental cooling, especially the seasonality of cooling, poses challenges to models of climate and ecosystem change."

    The findings are puzzling because many climate models indicate that the Polar regions should serve as bellwethers for any global warming trend, responding first and most rapidly to an increase in temperatures. An ice sheet many kilometers thick in places perpetually covers almost all of Antarctica.

    Temperature anomalies also exist in Greenland, the largest ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere, with cooling in the interior concurrent with warming at the coast.

    Peter Doran, of the University of Illinois at Chicago, the lead author of the paper, and his co-authors, acknowledge that other studies conducted in Antarctica have deduced a warming trend elsewhere in the continent. But they note that the data indicate that the warming occurred between 1958 and 1978. They also note that the previous claims that Antarctic is warming may have been skewed because the measurements were taken largely on the Antarctic Peninsula, which extends northwards toward South America. The Peninsula itself is warming dramatically, the authors note, and there are many more weather stations on the Peninsula than elsewhere on the continent.

    Averaging the temperature readings from the more numerous stations on the Peninsula has led to the misleading conclusion that there is a net warming continent-wide. "Our approach shows that if you remove the Peninsula from the dataset, and look at the spatial trend. The majority of the continent is cooling," said Doran.

    He added that documentation of the continental cooling presents a challenge to climate modelers. "Although some do predict areas of cooling, widespread cooling is a bit of a conundrum that the models need to start to account for," he said.

    The Dry Valleys are the largest ice-free area in Antarctica, a desert region that encompasses perennially ice-covered lakes, ephemeral streams, arid soils, exposed bedrock and alpine glaciers. All life there is microscopic.

    The team argues that the cooling trend could adversely affect the unique ecosystems in the region, which live in a niche where a delicate balance between freezing and warmer temperatures allows them to survive and where liquid water is only available during the very brief summer. They argue that a net cooling of the continent could drastically upset that balance.

    "We present data from the Dry Valleys representing the first evidence of rapid terrestrial ecosystem response to climate cooling in Antarctica, including decreased lake primary productivity and declining soil invertebrates," they write.

    Their data, they argue, are "the first to highlight the cascade of ecological consequences that result from the recent summer cooling."

    Here is the link.
     
  9. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(TimBikes @ Sep 26 2007, 03:45 PM) [snapback]518190[/snapback]</div>
    Tim, that is a rather old article. Could THIS comment from Realclimate be talking about the same paper? I tried to find the original paper on Nature's site but it was a broken link or maybe because I cannot get into it from home.


    I found this information interesting as well after searching for the effects of ozone depletion on temperature.


    I'm having a bit of a time trying to find specific effects of the Antarctic Ozone Hole on ground temps. I find the obvious, that a depletion in statospheric ozone will reduce statosphere temps (since ozone absorbs UV-B radiation and thus warms) but short of that I am not finding much from credible sources. Can one of you lend a hand. :)
     
  10. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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  11. efusco

    efusco Moderator Emeritus
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    Yet another observable consequence of GW and the melting of the polar ice cap....

    Melting ice pack displaces Alaska walrus
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071007/ap_on_...ea_ice_walrus_5

    By DAN JOLING, Associated Press WriterSun Oct 7, 2:18 AM ET

    Thousands of walrus have appeared on Alaska's northwest coast in what conservationists are calling a dramatic consequence of global warming melting the Arctic sea ice.

    Alaska's walrus, especially breeding females, in summer and fall are usually found on the Arctic ice pack. But the lowest summer ice cap on record put sea ice far north of the outer continental shelf, the shallow, life-rich shelf of ocean bottom in the Bering and Chukchi seas.

    Walrus feed on clams, snails and other bottom dwellers. Given the choice between an ice platform over water beyond their 630-foot diving range or gathering spots on shore, thousands of walrus picked Alaska's rocky beaches.

    "It looks to me like animals are shifting their distribution to find prey," said Tim Ragen, executive director of the federal Marine Mammal Commission. "The big question is whether they will be able to find sufficient prey in areas where they are looking."

    According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder, September sea ice was 39 percent below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000. Sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return, with a possible ice-free Arctic Ocean by summer 2030, senior scientist Mark Serreze said.
     
  12. kingofgix

    kingofgix New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(KD6HDX @ Sep 24 2007, 08:21 PM) [snapback]517169[/snapback]</div>
    Lets try this again people, pay attention. What you are referring to happened over 10's of thousands of years! That kind of change is normal and not alarming. We can easily adapt to that. Its irrelevant.

    That is not what is happening now and it is not what we are talking about. We are talking about massive melting over decades, not 10,000 years. It is current the RATE of change that it is alarming. Rate, spelled R-A-T-E. Look it up.
     
  13. rwhoyle

    rwhoyle Member

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    Yes, the Arctic ice has reached a record low coverage this year. However, where in the news has it been reported that the Antarctic Ice coverage has reached an all time high !!!! See article below from Wall Street Journal. Food for thought for all of the naysayers.

    Notable & Quotable
    October 25, 2007; Page A23
    John Christy of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (co-recipient of this year's Nobel Peace Prize) responds to questions by CNN anchor Miles O'Brien:

    O'BRIEN: I assume you're not happy about sharing this award with Al Gore. You going to renounce it in some way?

    CHRISTY: Well, as a scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, I always thought that -- I may sound like the Grinch who stole Christmas here -- that prizes were given for performance, and not for promotional activities.

    And, when I look at the world, I see that the carbon dioxide rate is increasing, and energy demand, of course, is increasing. And that's because, without energy, life is brutal and short. So, I don't see very much effect in trying to scare people into not using energy, when it is the very basis of how we can live in our society.

    O'BRIEN: So, what about the movie ["An Inconvenient Truth"]; do you take issue with, then, Dr. Christy?

    CHRISTY: Well, there's any number of things.

    I suppose, fundamentally, it's the fact that someone is speaking about a science that I have been very heavily involved with and have labored so hard in, and been humiliated by, in the sense that the climate is so difficult to understand, Mother Nature is so complex, and so the uncertainties are great, and then to hear someone speak with such certainty and such confidence about what the climate is going to do is -- well, I suppose I could be kind and say, it's annoying to me.

    O'BRIEN: But you just got through saying that the carbon dioxide levels are up. Temperatures are going up. There is a certain degree of certainty that goes along with that, right?

    CHRISTY: Well, the carbon dioxide is going up. And remember that carbon dioxide is plant food in the fundamental sense. All of life depends on the fact carbon dioxide is in the atmosphere. So, we're fortunate it's not a toxic gas. But, on the other hand, what is the climate doing. And when we build -- and I'm one of the few people in the world that actually builds these climate data sets -- we don't see the catastrophic changes that are being promoted all over the place.

    For example, I suppose CNN did not announce two weeks ago when the Antarctic sea ice extent reached its all-time maximum, even though, in the Arctic in the North Pole, it reached its all-time minimum.


    URL for this article:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119327669836770826.html
     
  14. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Sliderule @ Oct 29 2007, 06:10 PM) [snapback]532217[/snapback]</div>
    Could you please find the information you are trying to link in a respected scientific journal? I do not go looking for science in the WSJ nor would I expect to find unbiased results of any studies there. I'll assume you were not trying to cherry pick a rather uninformative article and you have some real evidence to show us. Not that I doubt the validity of it but I do require real data and not OP/ED stuff. :)
     
  15. zenMachine

    zenMachine Just another Onionhead

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    Hannity: Global Warming Should By No Means Be Considered Accepted Science

    CNN's “so-called special,†as Hannity described it, was called Planet in Peril. One suspects that at least part of Hannity’s acrimony was because the special beat his show in the coveted 25-54 demographic ratings category.

    The first 2 ½ minutes of the Hannity & Colmes discussion were devoted to University of Alabama atmospheric science graduate students critiquing the film. What Hannity didn’t tell his viewers was that the seemingly impromptu discussion was actually led by University of Alabama at Huntsville professor John Christy. Christy, “best known for his skepticism about the nature, causes and effects of global warming,†according to the Huntsville (AL) Times, "highlighted those areas (he found misleading in the special) for the students."

    ...Meanwhile, the students didn’t discuss global warming, itself, just the TV special about it. Besides the complaint about the name, they critiqued the evidence presented by CNN and its supposed failure to properly frame the issue...

    ...The Huntsville Times reported, "The producers of ‘Hannity & Colmes’ contacted Christy about getting some students to watch CNN's special ‘Planet in Peril’ reports on global warming and environmental problems Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and to analyze the information presented by the Fox competitor."

    So much for the FOX News mantra, “We report, you decide.†They didn’t do so well with “fair and balanced,†either. Christy was the sole guest for the segment. There was no representative from CNN and no scientist with an opposing view.
     
  16. galaxee

    galaxee mostly benevolent

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(F8L @ Oct 29 2007, 11:57 PM) [snapback]532284[/snapback]</div>
    :lol: you should know better than that...

    and keep in mind some organized efforts (i'm thinking the anti-evolution movement but let's face it, there are others) are perfectly capable of cherry-picking what they get out of respected journals too... just make sure you read the reference yourself.
     
  17. Banjoman

    Banjoman Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(F8L @ Oct 29 2007, 08:57 PM) [snapback]532284[/snapback]</div>
    Just wondering, and maybe you have a link to a scientific journal that provides the answer, how much has the sea level risen since the North Pole has melted to its smallest size? Not a trick question--I'd just like to know.
     
  18. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(banjoman @ Oct 29 2007, 09:50 PM) [snapback]532301[/snapback]</div>
    Because I'd rather not shoot from the hip I'd like some time to find that for you. I'm in the middle of a bunch of math homework, a quiz, a GIS assignment and I need to study for a bio quiz all due by 9:30am tomorrow. lol I assume you are serious and I will do my best to find the best information for you.

    To narrow my search do you have a time frame in mind? IE, are we talking about after the last small ice age of 12k years ago or more recently? I do know that during the last ice (about 20k years ago) age sea levels were about 460ft. lower than they are today. If it is too recent then please be aware that there is a lag time required to see the full effects of many global issues. :)
     
  19. Banjoman

    Banjoman Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(F8L @ Oct 29 2007, 09:57 PM) [snapback]532303[/snapback]</div>
    I was hoping to see what the immediate affects are to lend credence to the whole GW discussion. 20k years is a little too macro. How about the last, say, 20 years.
     
  20. rwhoyle

    rwhoyle Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(F8L @ Oct 29 2007, 10:57 PM) [snapback]532284[/snapback]</div>
    F8L,

    Please visit this web site: http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.ph...rming-snow-job/
     
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