The Physics of Natural Football Deflation

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by SageBrush, Jan 21, 2015.

  1. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    ^^ Nate Silver would never let his name be attached to such statistics ignorance. Statistically improbable occurrences are a dime a dozen through the retrospectroscope.

    Try this experiment:
    Flip a coin 20 times and record the results in their exact order.

    Now keep flipping in groups of 20 until you repeat the original result. Your inability to do it again is suspicious, right ?
     
  2. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Well if you say Nate Silver would say that was bad work, let's hear that from him or other authority.

    IN any case all we need is the perception of advantage for a rule to keep balls equal pressure for all teams.
     
  3. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Try to get him interested, or pay him enough.
     
  4. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    I gather that teams leave the decision of football pressure to the quarterback, and the QBs will small hands prefer lower pressures. So if you could find a group of teams that choose low(er) pressure balls, you could compare fumble stats to those teams who prefer high(er) pressure balls. You would still need to control for weather variables, which might (actually, probably) introduce too much noise into the data to find any statistically significant results.
     
  5. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    The ball pressure conspiracy people should realize that any QB could have set the offensive balls to 12.5 psi if they wanted to. Those that did not, simply chose the pressure they thought gave them the best advantage. A QB that set the ball pressure to 13.5 at an balmy indoor temp of 68F, and then played at 100F outside was playing with a ball that was as 'illegal' on the high side as the balls the Pats played with Vs. the Colts, but on the low side.

    That much is obvious from simple physics. So why are you not declaring that NFL games have been rigged since 2006 ?
     
  6. Yakoma

    Yakoma Active Member

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    Went back and looked at the replay. They had 3 timeouts at the 2:00 warning. They burned one on the drive when NE's defense confused them. They had 2 left at the 1 yard line. No excuse.

    [Correction: Seattle burned another after the miracle grab by Kearse when they apparently couldn't decide what play to call (after Kearse got up and stepped out of bounds to stop the clock). They had 1 timeout left at the 1 yard line. STILL no excuse.]
     
    #126 Yakoma, Feb 2, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2015
  7. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    It was second down, and some 20 seconds remained on the clock. A running play takes over 10 seconds IIRC. So taking a time-out to sort out the player package would have burned one of their remaining downs.

    AND, they called a play that NE was not expecting and was ill-equipped to defend. The more I think about it, the less I am convinced it was a bad decision. Hindsight is easy.
     
  8. Yakoma

    Yakoma Active Member

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    >> was ill-equipped to defend

    Not sure how you defend that statement given that they did INDEED defend, nay, intercept it.

    But whatever...agree to disagree. This is why they call it Armchair Quarterbacking, right?

    Just sayin...I'm not the only one calling it the worst play call in Super Bowl history.
     
  9. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    The decision is before the result. A 'good' decision is one expected to work out more often than not. It is a rare decision that works 100% of the time; and when it does not, it does not become a 'bad' decision except in the (I use this word loosely) 'minds' of fans.

    Let me put it this way: if the pass had resulted in a TD and 'hawks win, would you be calling the play the dumbest in history ? I suspect not. In fact, I'd be reading media this morning about Carrol the diabolical genius. When historians say that 'history is written by the winners,' they are also pointing out this logic fallacy.
     
    #129 SageBrush, Feb 2, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2015
  10. Yakoma

    Yakoma Active Member

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    >>if the pass had resulted in a TD and 'hawks win, would you be calling the play the dumbest in history ?

    Probably not...but I'd never call it GENIUS...not with Marshawn Lynch in the backfield. That was the play to call. Three times if necessary given that he had not been stopped for a loss the entire game. Still not genius...just walking-around sense.

    You can call it hindsight if you wish. Just as yours is hindsight. Not denying that. But with the benefit of hindsight - which we are both engaging in right now - it sounds like you still won't concede that it was an atrociously stupid call.

    Denial - not just a river in Egypt.
     
  11. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Actually, I wish to avoid hindsight. My points in favor of the decision are these:
    1. NE was off-guard for a pass play
    2. A rush on 2nd down was a low probability of success decision, and would have taken ~ 10 seconds of the 20 seconds remaining
    3. A called time-out would have wasted a down
    4. Wilson was very unlikely to throw an interception
    If more time had been on the clock, running Lynch seems like the smart choice. Since there were only 20 seconds, I certainly will not judge the decision with any confidence.
     
  12. Yakoma

    Yakoma Active Member

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    20 seconds PLUS 1 time-out. (corrected from 2)

    From. The. One. Yard. Line.

    And, sorry, by definition, you can't avoid hindsight.
     
    #132 Yakoma, Feb 2, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2015
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    the problem for young contemporary sports fans is history, or lack thereof. every unbiased observer of sports knows that pushing the envelope is the mantra on every team. rules change, and then change back. unwritten rules are always talked about. belichick is a master of living on the edge, some coaches are not that smart. if eric mangini hadn't dropped a dime on belichick for filming what he had been doing when he was the pats defensive coach, it would never have come to light, because everyone has skeletons in their closet. if there had been no spy gate, there would not have been a deflate gate.

    no one's calling belichick an angel, but it's the nfl, he grew up in it, and he understands how things work, as does every other coach and player.
     
  14. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Ahh ... don't get me started on the idiocy that is 'Spy-gate.'

    Every time I watch a game, I see the coaches calling plays behind their play cards. As if they didn't trust all the morally upright spectators and teams to avoid reading lips. And the attempts to decipher QB cadences ? CRIMINAL, I tell you.

    Hell, the entire game of football is one big deception played out along 100s of ways every play. That is the allure; other wise we would just watch 40 yard team dashes.
     
  15. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    The ball was filled in a hot humid locker room,
    Water vapor is a component of air which condenses at lower temps.
    This would significantly affect lowering the balls pressure.
    Dumbass Bill Nye didnt consider that.
     
  16. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    All warfare is based on deception - Sun Tzu
     
  17. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    The balls are inflated to 13 psi at the factory and then delivered to the teams.

    And while I think Nye got it wrong (if he was actually trying in the first place), you of all people should refrain from calling someone 'dumbass.'
     
    #137 SageBrush, Feb 5, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2015
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    ya, bill's a hawks fan, at least, he was until sunday night.
     
  19. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Oh no Mo, don't say H2O!
    I am not even going to do the calc cause I already did for car tires and it is minor effect, way secondary or tertiary to the ambient temp decrease.

    If there was any plausible suggestion the Pats were doing something fancy other than "PSST", I would buy a "Duke" NFL football to try it out.

    How about the Falcons pumping in fake crowd noise? Just goes to show.
     
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    colts were doing the same thing, and probably every stadium. there's more to sports than meets the eye.
     
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