The Toyota Mirai (FCV) Thread

The main reason that fueleconomy.gov shows higher emissions than the EIA data is because they assume additional upstream emissions to the fuel. You can find the details of how they calculate it at the fueleconomy.gov website.

Given its extra price and fueling limitations I would expect most potential customers of the Mirai are substantially motivated by the global warming CO2 emissions aspect. Using your assumptions, they would be doing just as well to buy a 2016 Volt PHEV, or a Prius (conventional or PHEV) based on CA emissions or US average electricity and gasoline emissions. A 2016 Honda Accord or Chevy Malibu hybrid would also be a good choice in states with higher grid emissions.

I think FCEVs as passenger vehicles are a distracting sideshow that we can't afford to waste effort on at this time. They might make sense in commercial market niches where fueling is more regimented and renewable H2 sources can plausibly scale to provide H2 using sources that wouldn't otherwise be done more efficient via the electricity grid.

 

I think those are questions for Toyota or USB, not me.
To me the question is really about price of the juice and is it low enough, or is there a compelling argumennt for the government to subsidize it to be low enough.

Toyota seems to think people will be wiling to pay $6/kg for hydrogen once the cars prices come down. I really don't know. NREL thinks with enough cars night wind to hydrogen could be sold for $8.50/kg. We get one or two of these breakthroughs the price goes under $6. If that is true, and the price would be $6 then maybe you subsidize. I'd say you need to show consumers actually will buy the cars and pay more for hydrogen than gas. That's a good reason to do this test, but they are screwing with the results by not charging at least a nominal amount for fuel. .

It points to 2010 figures. GHG in electricity dropped significantly betwen 2010 and 2014. One big source was less coal for domestic electricity, so less coal bed methane, and less ghg from coal burning. I think greet may use a fudge factor that eia does not use, but they should be starting with the eia figures I am looking at. They simply are not computer sophicated, and don't update their numbers when the eia updates theres.

My guess is global warming has not a lot to do with a fcv customer, or hybrid, or plug-in. Some of them yes, but if ghg was the big factor, then these 1000 hand raisers in california would be getting a plug-in. Remember fuel cell vehicles are being leased in 1 state right now, and not even the whole state. In that state bevs produce lower ghg. These are likely initial adopters that like fuel cells more than plug-ins, or like hyundai, honda, and toyota more than the plug-in makers.

 

B.S.

You convert CNG to hydrogen, fill a thousand Diesel tanker trucks with said hydrogen, have them drive to a thousand different gas stations, and wasting precious fossil fuel in the process. Plus make FCV drivers divert to said stations to refill.

That is in NO way more efficient than a CNG pipeline direct to a power plant, and then shipping the weightless electrons to homes & into the battery car I'm both an engineer and an FCV driver. The EV is waaaay more efficient & convenient (home charging) then the Fool Cell I'm currently driving/testing.

 

wow.

 

Just ask the man that drives one.

 

heretic !!!

Kidding
.... still, you realize, it doesn't bode well when one of the users makes such declarations.

 

Keep on preaching. As soon as an EV with the range of the Mirai comes along at a similar price, this personal transport fool cell experiment will reach its end.

 

Cost to build? It is pretty much already here. Perhaps 7-8% shorter range, but extremely close.
2nd gen EVs which are much more capable, affordable, or both will be available within 1-2 years.

I'm not as optimistic as you. I think the FCV experiment will continue as long as state and federal governments keep footing the bill.

 

Yes, actively bleeding the public might keep the H2 flame alive for longer than I'm willing to admit...as far as range, I was pretty much referring to the Model 3 with the maximum (hypothetical) battery size (yielding a presumed and conservative 300-mile range). Should put it on equal footing with the 2015 Mirai. Cold climes seem to really cut into usable range.

 

I think this is one of those really wrong claims.

UCS 42% have or can easily have a plug available, don't need L3 chargers, etc. They can purchase plug-ins (BEVs and PHEVs) in the next 5 years that are convienient enough and priced low enough. Still adoption will be slow for the next decade.

Less than 1% live close enough to a planned hydrogen fueling station. My bet is at least 80% of those in the first 5 years will have garages. I think it is over 90% of the fcv so far in california.

That kind of asks the wrong question. The question is when will there be a fuel cell car that is as desirable as a model S, or volt. Will it be as desirable as a model 3 or bolt or outlander phev.

Absolutely if you want luxury that can only drive in small areas of california, Japan, and Europe, can't accelerate very well, and has seating for 4 with a small trunk, and is classified as a ZEV .... The mirai is it. Of course if you want to take a long trip, well, what is so bad about a phev or a long range bev?

This is just not factually correct. Many of the L3 chargers are solar or wind powered. Also most charging is done slower at night while you sleep or at work.

Who is going to build that nation wide network of fueling stations? When will it be built. I'm betting its at least 50 years from now if ever, for texas, montana, alaska. Yep texas has a fuel cell bus in austin, but the fueling station is university, not a public station. I don't expect any one is going to be like tesla, and build enough hydrogen accross my state. In california, sure enough for maybe 10,000 fcv sometime in 2019, is my guess. How many of those 10,000 will be apartment dwellers?

In the mean time yes you can build plugs for apartments and condos. Most of the new apartment and hotels going up around here have L2 chargers, and they are at the libraries and parks ;-)

Maybe 20 years there will be some interstate hydrogen fueling for tens of thousands of cars, for the next decade or so its token fueling in the US.

 

Funny that you mentioned CNG

 

Well yes the problem with hydrogen is similar to the problem with cng. CNG is running around 20 million cars world wide, but this is Iran, pakastan, brazil, china, india. In the us its only around 100,000 mainly busses and trucks, with longer haul needing lng. For a car the mirai's size the tanks tank up a lot of room. Even thought there are over 800 cng stations in the US that isn't really enough to make it convient. That Phil cost $5K and didn't work very well. In the US plug-ins have already outpaced cng, for the obvious reasons. I like the picken's plan of interstate LNG for trucking, but cng on a mirai or a civic sized car is a losing proposition because of vehcile cost and tank size.

Well I'll agree that the volt isn't a top car in terms of sales, number 3 in plug-ins in the US this year, 2 of all years, but these last 3 months of the year, I expect volt sales to be higher than mirai sales for the next 27 months. The mirai is expensive compared to the volt, and not as convient to refuel.

Yes the model 3 will be much more popular than the mirai, but in terms of price that volt and i3 seem to do better than the mirai in terms of sales and value. Only if we put artificial constraints on these other cars can the mirai be thought of as a reasonable value proposition.

 

I'm sorry but since when is "reasonable" part of the vocabulary in a discussion where we're talking about the best ZEV on the planet, aka the Mirai?

 

that's great .... and for every one person that doesn't have a place to plug or a garage, there are at least 100,000 folks that don't either have the subsidized $60k laying around for a sub compact hydrogen car that can only seat 4, & /or they don't have a multi trillion-dollar infrastructure fuel cell access point. But hell, it's only paper money so let's run with it. Weeeee!

.

 

I-Team: State Wasting Millions Of Dollars On Electric Car Programs?

http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2015-sales-chart-september-vfinal.png

 

Considering the cost of home refilling CNG, I think those that could afford it would rather have something nicer than a Civic or an used fleet Crown Vic. Of course, the absolute lack of public CNG stations didn't help. How many of those did California pay to install vs. the public chargers that they did.

on that last line. I've seen a couple of Leafs and Teslas around here. The previous local Dominoes owner even had a smart ED for deliveries. Have yet to see a Clarity.

Seeing how Leaf sales have beaten the Model S in some months, it is hard to say money is wasted because there are high priced luxury models also eligible for the tax credit. I don't recall Lexus hybrids being cut off from the credit at the time. Was it a waste to give toyota money for all those Prii they sold?

 

Toyota has now anounced their meaning of tens of thousands. Begining in 2020 toyota expects to sell 30,000 fcv/year world wide. Of course they aren't really commiting to those vehiles, and there won't be fueling infastructure to fuel them unless someone magically pops them up.

Japan's Olympic Hydrogen Push Faces Challenges, Questions
Tokyo and hydrogen fuel in 2020 Olympics - Business Insider

OK 30k x 5 years = 150,000
California hopes for 86 stations by 2021 according to the new revised plan, that will cause problems if there are 35,000 fcv as many of these stations are low capacity (bellow 200kg (50 cars) a day). The east coast may have 14 by then, who knows make that 100.
Europe? maybe they will have 100 too. Now if the drivers were to pay for the hydrogen .... people wouldn't buy the cars. Its a catch 22. If you could only get governments to buy the cars and the hydrogen then there would be a lot of cars, but if governments buy too many ($60,000 japan per vehile right now) then there isn't money for anything else, and who is going to slose army bases and schools to get hydrogen cars.

No the model III isn't going to playing catch up to the mirai. Fuel cell people will claim it takes too long to fill up on the long trips those fuel cells can't go on because of missing infrastructure. Maybe in 10 years the costs will come down and the mirai gen III will be competitive with today's plug ins. There are now 1 million plug-ins in the world. When will there be 1 million fcv?