Featured Toyota apparently abandons the BEV market for now.

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by markabele, Jan 7, 2019.

  1. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    What does that actually mean? How do you view the technology implemented in Prime and Mirai? Aren't they helping to shake out details of how to produce for the masses?

    Dealers won't suddenly embrace a long-range EV offering. We understand that reality all too well. That's why Toyota is flushing out traditional vehicles by introducing a wide array of hybrid choices. They are setting the stage without major disruption to the business. Why do so many believe the shift to EV must be dramatic?

    Think about where Toyota will be 2 to 3 years from now. When cost has finally comes down to being realistically affordable (priced competitively with traditional choices), Toyota will start dropping traditional production. Going all hybrid is a clear & painless next step in electrification that carries along the entire fleet. Heck, Prius could even go plug-in only at that point. It's an endorsement that sends a powerful message of commitment to change.

    Look at how terrible that has gone so far for GM and Nissan; for that matter, consider Ford & BMW too. VW is still nothing but talk. And Honda is very small. None of those legacy automakers share resemblance to Tesla, so comparisons make no sense. They will require a different approach. That's why articles like this are pointless, just hype to draw readers to a publication.

    Think about the big picture. How will each automaker get beyond a single first offering? Mainstream consumers could easily look at just one choice as a niche. Keep in mind how GM was never able to successfully spread the technology from Volt into another vehicle in their product-line. Getting beyond niche is very difficult. This is why Toyota figured out how to make a variety of compelling hybrid choices prior to tackling the challenge of adding plugs.
     
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  2. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Volkswagen has unveiled their BEV dedicated platform to the press; in depth article at Jalopnik. Actual physical unit on display.

    RWD skateboard layout, AWD option. Space savings from lack of engine going to the cabin, so no frunk. Three battery pack sizes planned. The platform is modular to work a range of segments.

    Tesla isn't the only one leaving Toyota behind.
     
  3. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Engineering by press-release. You should know better. Don't award merit until it is actually earned.

    Toyota simply doesn't care. They keep quiet, regardless of how loud the other automakers get. There are many examples of that in the past with GM. Now, it looks like VW is doing the same thing.
     
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  4. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Physical prototype is far more than a press release.
     
  5. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    I believe this chart stands for USA. The worldwide operation/market is quite different.
    For example, Toyota hybrids take much of the "alt-fuel" share of Europe:
    https://www.fuelseurope.eu/dataroom/static-graphs/
    46% of Toyota Motor Europe (TME) sales in H1 are self-charging hybrid electric vehicles
     
  6. Rmay635703

    Rmay635703 Senior Member

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  7. GasperG

    GasperG Senior Member

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    Hybrid is a hybrid I see no reason why there should be dedicated PHEV category, after all Toyota is leading the PHEV market. So just add hybrid and PHEV and you are at 8%.

    Globally hybrid market is growing, it's just the US that's a little strange in this regard. Tesla set the bar higher this year, but what do they plan for next year, will they stick with 5,000 M3 a week or will they surpass that? By how much and how fast?
     
  8. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Remember the plug-in hybrid SUV we were shown by GM over a decade ago?
     
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  9. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Tesla had a $7,500 tax-credit and pretty much zero competition. At some point, all the low hanging fruit will be gone. Getting MSRP down without profit loss is the most urgent concern.

    That's why Model Y is on the way. Market saturation is a problem, even the other factors aren't an influence.

    This is why Toyota is steering clear of such issues, choosing to deal with those challenges prior to exposure.
     
  10. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    have to admire his resoluteness
     
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  11. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    that may be right. The thing is, look at some of the great EV product coming out by Audi - Hyundai - Kia - etc .... none of them are building the massive charging infrastructure that Tesla is building. So let's say years from now Toyota does finally get with the program - putting a Tesla model 3 killer on their lots, & that their sales people actually believe in it & push it.. How does it help to have a great car & great sales people that believe in a Toyota EV, but Totota leaves it to others to assure that you can actually drive it across the u.s.? There are already several manufacturers with nice products - but without investing in 1,000's of multi-stall charge locations? Maybe Toyota will be the 1st manufacturer to take tesla up on its offer to let others onto its system?
    .
     
    #31 hill, Jan 8, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2019
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  12. GasperG

    GasperG Senior Member

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    I just don't get why most people think Toyota will have the most problems with exponential EV market.
    - They are building hybrid transaxels with two MGs like crazy at a rate 1.6 milion per year
    - They are making 1.6 milion power electronics (inverters) for hybrids per year
    - They are (Primearth EV Energy) making 1.6 milion battery packs per year (does size really matter that much?)
    - They have a 15% stake in lithium miner Orocobre, that will produce 42,500 tonnes per annum of low-cost lithium carbonate.

    Don't tell me that FCA, Ford, GM or PSA will survive this transition, if it really happens as fast as some think (I don't).
     
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  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    agreed.

    by the time toyota mass produces a bev for u.s. market, model 3 will not be the competition.

    and if tesla chargers are the only major infrastructure in the country, bev's will never succeed.

    charging has to be ubiquitous and as convenient as gas, to change the majority of drivers
     
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  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    For Toyota:
    1. Modify the control laws to let POWER mode apply max torque as the road allows. Currently the acceleration data shows Toyota is holding back from maximum acceleration at low speeds. They don't have to reach 60 mph but beat ICE across the intersection as I did with our 03 Prius.
    2. Fix the battery temperature control, possibly using 27000 cells to make packs that fit in the spare tire well and under the back seat.
    3. Next generation body that allows skateboard under frame and/or jack up suspension so there is space.
    Bob Wilson
     
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  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Actually, I don't.
    Edit: Looked into it, and I'm guessing you are referring to the Saturn Vue PHEV. The specs sound sad for it now(10 miles EV range), but it was slated for production. Too bad a major recession lead to the closing of Saturn, and the rebadged Buick version had such a negtive reaction. GM Introduced A PHEV Crossover 10 Years Ago And Then Killed It - Twice | Carscoops

    Chevy did unveil a PHEV concept a couple years ago. The Buick Velite 6 that will be available in China in April looks very much like the concept. There also seems to be a XT4 PHEV in the works.
    Chevrolet FNR-X PHEV SUV Concept Steals The Show In Shanghai | Gas 2

    Started a new thread on VW's MEB platform.
    The components for a plug-in isn't the issue. It is the lack of a dedicated platform to build a BEV upon. The Prime would be a much better PHEV if the platform had been designed for a large traction battery instead of using an ICE biased one.
     
    #35 Trollbait, Jan 8, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2019
  16. GasperG

    GasperG Senior Member

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    Agree, but I wanted to point out that Toyota has the expertise to manufacture their own electric motors, transaxle, power electronics and batteries, on a large scale and at competitive price point. And we know the electric part is efficient (Prime 133 MPGe)

    - BMW has shown some innovative manufacturing with i3, but is it profitable?
    - GM has shown that they rather leave the whole drivetrain to LG and first they killed off Ampera in EU and now they killed off Volt 2.0 in US, sales of both of these vehicles were not that bad, maybe, just maybe it had to something with profits.
    - Jaguar uses Magna and Continental for their iPace
    - VW has something to show with MEB, but currently they have little to show. Their Hybrid Jetta was nothing to rave about and was only sold in US in small numbers, e-Golf is something of a retrofit, first reviews of 48V mild hybrid that they outsource from Continental are not that great (throttle lag), their PHEVs are not efficient both on gas (36 MPG) and electricity (83 MPGe)
    - Nissan is just stiking their head in the sand, They got all the bad press with battery degradation and they do nothing about it, just a big fail on their part
    - Honda? I think has the potential.
    - Hyundai/Kia - I think they are on the right path
    - Ford? FCA? PSA?
     
  17. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    I believe I made the same point about Toyota already having the expertise in electric drive trains earlier. Balancing those components in a platform the provides range, utility, performance, safety, while keeping cost down is the hard part. I hope Toyota is already working on such a platform, but such wasn't evident in the Prius Prime.

    The i3 will likely end. I recently read BMW didn't expect battery costs to drop as much as they have. The heavy use of light weight materials isn't as needed when the car came to market. What they learned with it will be applied to future models.

    GM - the Ampera suffered from the EU tariffs; are they even in that market still. The Volt suffered from the shift in the US market, and our fuel prices. We don't know much of their plug in plans for North America; a XT4 PHEV may come, but the current politics plays a role. They still sell the Velite in China, and a crossover version comes out in a few months. GM is more focused on China for plug ins.

    Details are coming out on VW's MEB platform. Seems they put too much effort into it for this to just be for compliance purposes. Their PHEVs are more power hybrid; they did put more effort into packaging the battery.

    Nissan and Renault might be in conflict with each other at the moment. Nissan's approach to FCEVs may have the better chance at success. They are basing their FCEVs and PHEVs off of the BEVs. We'll see how the long range Leaf does.

    Honda should be fine. The plug in Clarity is doing well. The concern is one shared with Toyota, too focused on hydrogen fuel cells and seeing BEVs as short range only.

    Hyundai or Kia likely will be my first BEV.

    Hopefully, FCA's new management is more plug in friendly.

    Ford has something like 19 plug instead planned. They moving to a parallel system, and may have some PHEVs out already or soon.
     
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  18. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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  19. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    That self charging bit is irksome.
    Needs a footnote about all charging being on fossil fuels.
     
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  20. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Don't forget, it also self charges after you drive to the top of the hill, once you head back down. Yeah, they are laying it on a little thick with the BS'ery
    .
     
    #40 hill, Jan 10, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2019
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