Featured Toyota Believes Fuel Cell Prices Will Match Hybrids

It's easily shot down by those who are either clueless or disingenuous like you.

You failed to include, in your analysis above, the extra cost of the BEV at purchase, the extra difficulty in recycling the BEV at end-of-life, the extra energy it uses in the form of acceleration and rolling friction losses it consumes to carry around that heavy battery all the time, the cost of the time wasted charging, the cost of the other car many people will own to do longer trips that the BEV can't do, and the lack of grid operator controlability of the charging process that would help firm-up the grid (make grid operations less expensive) if it were available.

 

Since there is no efficient way to store electricity in large amounts, one advantage of hydrogen is storage. With electricity, it pretty much has to be dispensed at the time of production - in the case of an EV into the EV battery. With solar or wind, you cannot easily match the supply to the demand. You can produce hydrogen for storage.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are likely going to command a premium as well.

 

..... as opposed to the cost & mineral source of the fuel cell's Platinum stack - as well its own Battery (still necessary) -

someone's doing a cost purchase analysis? Was that a deflection? A little 4 seater like the Mirai as an example at roughly $50k, compared to a (example only, because it's bigger, seating 5) Nissan Leaf ... $10K less. And because of infrastructure, a Nissan Leaf can actually leave California w/out being on a flatbed. But if people like fuel cells despite all of that, that's fine.

EXTRA difficulty? both hydrogen cars & Bev use traction packs. Even years ago, Nissan said the leaf battery is 100% recyclable.

extra energy? That just turns on whether someone is inclined to stomp on it when they pull away from a red light. don't know how massive an expensive platinum stack would have to be in order to have equal energy available but because they are both battery laden - well there you go.

even somebody with a Prius Prime knows it takes less than five seconds to plug in an evse at home, which is where most owner refill if not at work. Even so - if doesn't work for someone, then good choice - not going that route.
.

 

I believe we are talking about substantially different quantities of minerals.

It's all academic anyway; until somebody can do a familiar family car for $20k all this stuff is going to remain out on the fringes.

I'd drive either technology.

 

The Mirai holds 5 kg of H2 and has an EPA range of 312 miles...or about 62 m/kg.
(EPA says 66 m/kg)
From your numbers that would be about 44 kwh/66 miles or 667 wh per mile.
This is in comparison to ~200wh/mile I typically get in both my PIP and Model 3.
This is in comparison to the EPA rated 260 wh/mile for the Model 3.

Given an equal cost per unit of energy, the Mirai (the most efficient FC car to date, I think), is at least 2.6x more costly per mile. Probably a bit more for short trips because the FC has to warm up, unlike an EV.
And this is all done by a BEV that is carrying around all those heavy batteries all the time. I doubt that FC cars are going to get much lighter in the next few years...maybe they will. But we know that there are continual improvements being made in the power density of batteries...so we know we;ll get 50% improvement from technologies in the pipeline now because there are so many research projects going on.

Mike

Are you willing to pay 2.6x as much per mile? Yes that is like volunteering to pay more than $10/gal for gas now (in CA)
Not many would pay that.

Mike

 

Not if they're PHEVs!!!

Nor should they have to. H2 doesn't have any reason to be expensive, and fuel cells don't have any reason to be less than 50% efficient, and 60% is totally doable. At the $2-$3/kg I calculated, that's 2-3 cents per mile.

 

Why would I be paying so much? If I'm making it from wind & solar and never buying electricity from the grid, it should be pretty cheap.

 

Why not just use the natural gas in the car
off loading all the exotics, efficiency loss and extra expense?

Last time I checked reforming CNG to hydrogen is dirtier than burning it directly and pumping equipment costs are much lower.
Further CNG can be used in a fuel cell directly should we so desire

 

Because it's less than half as efficient and can't be as easily generated from renewable sources.

 

More, and more than gas stations, and those aren't cheap either

Neither are overlooked.

Most of the hydrogen used comes from natural gas, and without government intervention, that is how it will remain. In which case, why bother with hydrogen? We can burn natural gas in cars already, and it is virtually available everywhere; there is over a million miles of NG pipeline in the US. We would just need more refueling stations for it, and they are much cheaper than hydrogen ones.

Well, the electricity from PV panels is better used going into the grid. During times of excess, there are other options for storing the energy. Batteries are beating out hydrogen there because of cost too, but I acknowledge materials and manufacturing may not meet future demands, and they are probably better off in cars. Though there are battery chemistries ill suited for transportation.

We could pump water uphill to drive turbines later. There are literally thousands of potential sites for this in the US alone. Sites are fewer, but we can compress air into geological formations for the same purpose.

Electrolyzed hydrogen to fuel cell for grid energy storage may work out for some situations. There is just a lot of competition.

If the goal is use excess renewable electricity for transportation fuel...

In that case, we can add carbon dioxide to the electricity and water and make hydrocarbons. We get methane that can be further processed into methanol and fuel oils. Audi has pilot plants already doing methane and fuel oil, which they easily refine some into diesel. If we truly don't care about efficiency, the fuel oil can be converted into gasoline.

And we got renewable fuels that don't require building completely new cars and infrastructure. We just need to get everybody into plug ins in order for them to accept the price for these renewables.

Except for when that doesn't happen.

"A hydrogen tank explosion killed two people and left six injured in the eastern city of Gangneung in South Korea, the firefighting authorities said Thursday...The tank was used by a fuel-cell company at the park."
Hydrogen tank explosion kills 2 in Gangneung

"On January 8, 2007, a hydrogen explosion at the Muskingum River Power Plant’s 585-MW coal-fired supercritical Unit 5 caused one fatality, injuries to 10 other people, and significant damage to several buildings. The explosion occurred during a routine delivery of hydrogen when a hydrogen relief device failed, which allowed the contents of the hydrogen tank to escape and be ignited by an unknown source."
Lessons Learned from a Hydrogen Explosion

Hydrogen is light and floats away, but it is also flammable over a wide range of concentrations in the air. Part of the cost for hydrogen cars and refueling stations is from the idiot proofing needed for a consumer level product. Safety features also add to the cost for infrastructure.

The cost isn't in just making it, but in also getting it into the car. Energy costs aside, the equipment, and its maintenance, for doing so is expensive.

The EPA estimates used in these estimates take those energy expenditures into account.

And hydrogen FCEVs are no spring chickens. The Mirai is 500 to 700 pounds heavier than the Camry. The Model 3 is the same weight or lighter. They are roughly the same size. Th Mirai is longer and taller. The Model 3 is wider with longer wheelbase, and holds more people and stuff.

 

H2 is rarely renewable as well and todays h2 is about 62% efficient (max) last I checked
CNG in a modified diesel is 40-52% efficient depending on the size of the machine, cng cogeneration on stationary units approach 100% with no pumping loss.

The easiest way to know how efficient a fuel is to look at it’s cost,
if h2 cost the same as natural gas I think you would have a point, but it doesn’t because it’s a very wasteful process any way you get there

 

Same with today's electricity. Doesn't mean it can't change.

Fuel cells can get to nearly 80%.

The natural gas IC power plant (100MW) near me is around 25% efficient.

 

True, and that demonstrates why cogeneration is unpopular but necessary

And many solar and wind farms are considered 12% efficient due to up time and utilization

 

No, I think you must have made that up.

First, efficiency means something different with wind and solar. But by the way you worded that, I think you meant capacity-factor, not efficiency.

Wind farms are typically 98-99% available, and produce a capacity factor of 35%-45%. Now, that may sound low but the average capacity factor of US power plants is about the same.

 

Which ones? Their theoretical limit is 83%.
How long will they take to reach market? Before improved batteries and faster charging infrastructure?

Better fuel cells and renewable hydrogen still doesn't address the fundamental issue of how the hydrogen gets to cars, and who pays for that.

How old is it? CCGT plants get twice that, with some topping 60%.

 

Most of them, at light load (low current density).

As I said, it's an IC plant.

 

if one is a member of the fuel-cell lobby, you don't want those batteries to get to light and Powerful, otherwise they won't need the fuel cell.

.

.... go into business building fuel cell hydrogen refining plants .... sounds like you could make a killing!!

.

 

Oh, but we do. As a fuel-cell supporter, I always claim the reason I am is because batteries stink. If we had inexpensive 1,000Wh/kg batteries that were easy to recycle and fast to charge, then forget the hybrid system, just use the batteries.

But the reason to use a hybrid is because all of our power systems are either very powerful (batteries) or very energetic (fuel), but none are both (batteries have to be huge to be energetic and engines or fuel cells have to be huge to be powerful). So use one for power (batteries) and one for energy (fuel) and each becomes much smaller because neither has to do what it's poor at.

If an energy source (awesome batteries) comes along that does both well, then great!

 

imagine 1 million fuel cell cars - everyone with a platinum fuel stack, waiting to get ripped off like so many catalytic converter thugs are doing. I might have to buy some more Platinum Mining stock.

it can be very efficient, if we can just design a giant Slurpee straw, all the way to the Sun.

.

 

What? You don't think new fresh BEVs will be targeted for black-market batteries for aging BEVs?

The night is young...