Toyota Chairman STILL down on EVs

And yet Toyota continues to put money and resources into hydrogen, which has a far less certain future than electric vehicles.

I agree that hybrids can be a strong and long-lasting 'bridge', but to continue to snub EVs doesn't sound like the wisest long-term strategy.

 

Yes Henry Ford fired people that wanted to improve the model T, and waited until he had lost a huge amount of market share to allow Edsel to design the model A. Remember "you can have any color you want as long as it is black".

Lutz gave similar press releases, against hybrids and BEVs and for SUVs and Fuel cells as Uchiyamada seems to be doing against plug-ins and for hybrids and fuel cells.

These strategies were big time money losers for ford and lutz. I expect if toyota continues these anti-plug-in charm campaigns they will see erosion of brand. Now GM did not lose much market share because of not having a better hybrid, but they lost mind share and got a tarnished brand that rippled through the company. It was the PR idocy of killing the ev1 and not supporting hybrids that really hurt. I don't know why Ford, Lutz, and Uchiyamada don't have the common sense to STFU instead issuing bad press on the company, but this is an image tarnishing strategy.

 

Within 2 years, first mass-model FC Toyota will be on sale. I wonder what is the sales goal for that model, and how other BEVs will sell in 2015...
Late 2016 Uchiyamada will make a different speech, i'm afraid. Fortunately Toyota can swing very quickly, but has lost at least 2 or 3 years whistling...

 

...I apparently do not have access to WSJ to read the whole article, but I get the idea. I think the success of EV to date in USA suggests there is a long term market. Its crowded field right now so Toyota unique may be the one auto maker who can play wait and see, due to it's leadership on hybrids. Just about every other co. needs to get into the act if they want to meet USA 2025 CAFE standards. The USA hybrid/PHEV incentive tax credit programs going back to 2006 can almost be seen as giving other auto companies a chance to catch Toyota.

 

You can get around the pay wall by Googling for the WSJ article title and then clicking thru from there.

I right now don't have time to read that article but it worked...

 

Here is a bloomberg piece where he talks up fuel cells, but at least doesn't bash bevs.
Toyota Chairman Says Hybrids More Than Short-Term Bridge - Bloomberg

Which begs the question, why Uchiyamada is saying batteries for bevs won't be ready in 15 years?

But Toyota would pay for the fueling infrastructure though, right? I mean they are confident on fuel cells as tesla is about bevs, aren't they? Tesla is building infrastructure, and toyota needs it, they will confidently build it.

Maybe we don't need to read between the lines Toyota simply wants a government hand out to build its fuel cell vehicles. The best way to do that is to bash the bev technology. Or maybe that is the stupidest way to get tax payers money.

 

I think Toyota's chairman is both wrong and right.

As much as many of us wish it wasn't so, from an automotive standpoint the market and driving reality is still dominated by the ICE and primarily gasoline powered vehicles. The expectations for range, speed, and vehicle performance are still set by those standards.

I think the ultimate future IS electric vehicles. But I think current practicalities as we head towards advancement and refinement, leave the Hybrid as the most practical realistic alternative.

Toyota has invested a lot into the "Hybrid", so it's no surprise to me that Toyota believes it's going to be a long, sturdy bridge. I believe they are right...today. If I did not believe this, I wouldn't own a Prius.

 

The problem with this PR charm offensive, is not that its pro hybrid, it is pro Fool Cell and anti-plug-in. The line is Fool Cells are ready but batteries are not good enough for plug-ins. It is clue less bad marketing that likely will hurt the company. In 2015 when their fool cell vehicle sells less than 10,000 units world wide, while plug-ins sell in over 100,000 units in the US alone, the anit-plug-in agenda will be exposed. It is hard for me to believe that the toyota fcv-r will cause any of the excitement of the tesla S. Come 2017 how is it going to compete with blue star or what ever nissan or GM have out there. In most of the world there won't even be fueling infrastructure for this great fool cell sucess, and arguing against plug-ins and batteries does not help hybrid sales.

When Toyota says fuel cells will be ready in 2 years, but Plug-ins are not, they seem very foolish.

 

^^^maybe Toyota focus is on Japan needs

 

Sure, build thousands of EVs and sell a few dozens every month. Toyota is really just missing out on the EV Sales boom! - September 2013 Electric Sales
LEAF - 1,953
Tesla – 1000
Focus Electric - 175
RAV4 EV – 167
Spark EV – 78
Fiat 500e – 50
Fit EV - 35
Mitsu IMiev - 20
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

Exactly. They now have power shortages or at least not the free and abundant electricity they had before the earth quake. Perhaps there are concerns about parts coming from China too?

 

These were statements for the american market given in Washington, DC.

Toyota has publicly stated that their strategy is shifting more towards america, as it is a much more profitable market in the medium and longer term than Japan. Many remarks and marketing consideration on the prius phv (current not next generation) and IQ EV were focused on needs toyota perceived in Japan, and we can tell that from their slides. The prius phv sells poorly compared to expectations in Japan, it does better in the US (higher real sales, closer to expectation in volume). It is thought the next generation may be targetted more to the US market. The IQ EV, seemed a miss (50 mile ev range too small, price too high) before launch, and Toyota rightly killed it.

If toyota was being more neutral - hybrids, better plug-in hybrids including EREVs, and fuel cells, it may be not percieved as so negative. We do have tesla, which means plug-ins are viable and exciting. They do have far eneough range. Marketing against BEVs while trying to sell hybrids IMHO is a poor strategy.

The rav4 bev has battery cells made in japan, assembled into battery packs in america. The ford energis are the same. The spark has batteries made in america, then shipped to korea for assembly in the car. Leaf, volt, focus ev all have batteries made in the US. No reason for toyota to build a plug-in with parts made in china unless they want to sell in china. The prius has nickel and rare earth metals mined in china, and other parts made in thailand.

Fuel cells fuel - hydrogen may mainly come from the electrical grid in Japan, and this requires more energy than a phev or bev. Japan imports most of its natural gas as lng and this is quite expensive. Japan fcv could decide to run on fuel made from coal, as that may be the cheapest, but they would still need to import the coal.

 

And which of the above vehicle you refer to are sold in Japan? The Leaf. All the others including the RAV4ev are made and/or built for the US market. The RAV4 is effectively using Tesla tech anyhow.

 

The leaf, imev, prius phv, and outlander phev are sold in Japan. The only reason they would have chinese parts is if the manufacturer had decided on chinese parts. I still don't understand why toyota would assemble prii in china, but delay plans to build them in the US.

If toyota is using tesla assembled battery packs in the US, why could they not do the same for their domestic market, or license the tech. The cells come mainly from Japan, but tesla is rumored to get into licensing from samsung and have some of the cells come from korea or be built in the US. Toyota could license the tech from tesla, or come up with there own. No one can tell me the battery tech in the RAV4 bev is not viable, the tesla S proves it is. The questionable choice of platform is likely what is holding it back, along with poor marketing by toyota. It may in fact be negative marketing, as toyota seems like it wants to lose money on the vehicle, and bad mouth it in pieces like this.

The outlander phev is selling so well in Japan that they have delayed export to the US. Don't tell me no one wants plug-ins because batteries are not ready, but they really want fcvs. The marketing is just bad all around.

 

As a global company, I can almost guarantee you that isn't the case.

The earliest days of Toyota as an international entity saw Toyota's arrival in the USA and a dismal start with the introduction of "Toyopet" a car ill suited for American roads and driving habits. The Corona was specifically designed and built with the idea it would be successful in an American driving environment. So Toyota learned very early in their growth process to keep an eye on The World. Toyota builds products with as much mass, international, global appeal and viability as possible. Certain products may be better suited for specific European or Asian markets, and not even be released anywhere else, but in general Toyota as a global company MUST keep their focus on a global perspective.

So when Takeshi Uchiyamada says "the reason why Toyota doesn't introduce any major [all-electric product] is because we do not believe there is a market to accept it", I feel confident in saying he's talking globally not specific to Japan.

Toyota can design and build products they think will be successful in specific environments, BUT as a global company they cannot afford to have their overall philosophy and approach be born out of a Japan's Needs focus. It must always be...what does the world need.

I also think a TRUE and key part of his statement is " Hybrid gasoline-electric technology "encompasses all of the technologies required to make an electric vehicle.". Toyota can afford to be the leader in Hybrid technology and sales, and simply wait until the technology advances and the market is created. If , or I believe I should say, once, battery technology advances to the point that making a viable, affordable and potentially "popular" mass produced full electric happens, I fully expect Toyota to be able to rapidly transistion into that market if needed. As a leader in Hybrids, they would be ahead of the game as it sits an anyway.

Toyota may have no immediate plans to release a full EV. But their commitment and success with hybrids affords them the luxury of not have to necessarily be the ground breaker here. Improvements in Hybrid operation, would and will translate nicely into a full EV vehicle if and when that market becomes something Toyota wishes to enter.

LOL! I'm not too happy with Toyota as a company right now, but would I doubt that Toyota could transition into a full EV market easily, rapidly and with great success? Nope, when the world reaches that point, I have no doubt Toyota will be on the forefront. They built the bridge...they will be among the first to cross it.

 

toyota's strategy is brilliant. speeches mean nothing, we have no idea what they are actually planning, and they are right. when ev's look ready and batteries are ready, they will have everything necessary to compete, and compete well. i'm no hydrogen fan, but i'm sure they have thier reasons. and please, let's not confuse anyone at toyota with bob klutz.

 

How is this a brilliant strategy? The green halo of the prius helped sell many camrys and corolas and even insulated the company when pushing the sequoia.

How does having the prius help you build blue star? They won't have everything needed to compete, they will have alienated some customers, and not gotten feedback. Would the volt have been better and sold better if GM hadn't crushed the ev1 and pushed fuel cells? Everyone knowlegable thinks so. Two mode didn't help at all, everyone could see this was a shallow excuse to not sell hybrids. How does Toyota bashing their own rav4 ev help toyota?

Its a failed marketing strategy. The sooner they dump it the better. If they keep it up until 2016, it likely will be too late. They will have to pour many more resources into plug-ins to catch up, and when the fuel cell vehicles don't sell they will have a pr disaster.

 

Maybe Toyota's getting government grants to develop fuel cells. I don't see how hydrogen would be mainstream before BEVs. They may well be correct in assuming they've got the EV thing figured out already, as part of hybrid development. But, being complacent while others develop better technology and strategies doesn't sound like the Toyota I know.

 

Yes they have been collecting government money for fuel cells for over a decade. More from Japanese taxpayers but also a chunk from US taxpayers.

They proved with the awful IQ EV that they don't have the EV thing figured out. Akerman at GM from many of his statements, as well as Ghosn also don't have it figured out, but at least they are working on it.

I agree that complacency is not a normal toyota tradition. There appears from the statements that there was an internal fight inside toyota on fuel cells versus plug-ins and the plug-in guys lost. That is fine, but the vocal nature of these press events really does hurt toyota when they actually come around and realize they are wrong. Ofcourse fuel cells could have 3 major breakthroughs over night, we could run out of oil, Battery tech gets no better in the future, and governments fund a massive hydrogen fueling structure, but none of those things look very likely today.