Featured Toyota EV market innovation

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by Marine Ray, Sep 24, 2020.

  1. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    maybe they don't, maybe they do. Tesla seems to be doing fine by supplementing several of its supercharger stations with their own solar panels. They ought to know, being the only company that has built massive DC (supercharger) stations where dozens can refuel simultaneously not just one or two where you hope to God at least one is still working when you get there. When the stations lay dormant of cars - the renewable energy the panels pooduce is backed up with their own massive battery power walls. Isn't that why the entire island of Kauai went to solar & wind ..... with the excess/surplus power going to battery backups? Similarly, large swathes of Australia?
    Sure, you COULD use hydrogen to supplement DC charging, but why do you think that hasn't happened. Isn't it because of the huge amounts of electricity it takes to compress hydrogen? Isn't it expensive to replace all the imbrittled plumbing that hydrogen breaks down? Isn't it because the compressors' maintenance becomes onerous? Isn't it because non-renewable fossil fuels like coal or natural gas are used to make hydrogen, or alternatively huge amounts of electricity that could better be used to fill 4x the quantity of batteries that it takes to use electrolysis?
    But yeah, in theory they could use hydrogen. Maybe . . . as they keep saying, "in 10 years".
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    #21 hill, Sep 27, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
  2. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Just how much Tesla stock do you own? ;)
     
  3. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    we had 2 of their cars & sold both of them. But that 15 shares (@$700) that split 5 to 1? Well it paid for the losses that new owners have from driving any new car off the lot, and now we're back in the green. Green, get it?
    We could have got a used Toyota Mirai for basically free, but with rental property in other states, sometimes we need to drive out of cali.

    .
     
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  4. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    So you don’t own a Tesla anymore?
     
  5. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    nope ... 2 plugins for now. Once they rack up a lot of miles? Who knows. Maybe by then Toyota well go EV.
     
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  6. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Toyota has gone EV - their doing it there way! :)
     
    #26 orenji, Sep 28, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
  7. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    not a fan of most Chinese policies, but with them threatening to kick Toyota out unless they sold battery Electrics? I'm glad they lit the fire under their feet. Hopefully some of that Tech Will dribble down and Toyota will show us here in the USA the same love.
    .
     
  8. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Like all automakers in China, Toyota must produce zero- or low-emission vehicles to meet China’s ZEV credit requirements, which are expected to get much stiffer starting in 2021. Hydrogen will be available in China along with EV from Toyota. The percentage of Hydrogen to EV is unknown.
     
  9. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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  10. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    But we don’t know what the spread will be for Toyota yet.
     
  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    With limited refueling places and higher prices for the FCEVs, I don't see it being much different than their spread in the US. Then China's EV program is similar to California's in that a manufacturer needs a portion of their annual sales to be EV credits. The Mirai will likely be worth more credits than the BEV, so Toyota will need to sell less of them to meet their quota.

    https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Zero%20Emission%20Vehicle%20Mandate%20Briefing%20v2.pdf
     
  12. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    with the historical stats provided by @Trollbait above (post 29), one can pretty much project a best case scenario guess. If we round the 3K + hydrogen vehicles to 4K vehicles - presuming bumping up hydrogen happens .... them presuming they were all from Toyota, then divide that 4K hydrogen by the 4,200,000 Plugin''s - that's less than 1 out of 1,000 vehicles. And since China has given manufacturers notice that incentive $$$ will only be doled out when/if progress is shown ?
    .
     
    #32 hill, Sep 28, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
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  13. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    One source was projecting 5000 FCEVs by 2020. It was from before the pandemic, and China's latest hydrogen policy change
    My memory is saying 6000 was the largest figure seen for FCEVs.
     
  14. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    If 6000 were to ever happen, & if plugin production vehicles came to a halt in China, that would decrease the disproportionate ratio to around 1/500th of plug in production. But since the Shanghai tesla factory is gearing up to make 100's of thousans per year, that best case scenario is far from hopeful. More like experimentation.
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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  16. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Yea but your leaving out Hyundai and Honda who are also pushing Hydrogen. Then we have bus and truck manufacturers also going into Hydrogen. So I think you all need to accept that EV and Hydrogen vehicles can share in the future as not everyone wants a plug in. I did not even consider a plug in as it’s not practical for me. I know I am new to Hydrogen ownership but I totally enjoy the Mirai and find fueling is as easy as buying gasoline.
     
    #36 orenji, Sep 28, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
  17. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    First, the number FCEVs I posted for China include all manufacturers and commercial vehicles like buses. Global sales in 2019 were 7500.

    Commercial hydrogen FCEVs have a better chance of succeeding because the refueling infrastructure doesn't need to be as expansive as with personal cars. Routes are known and mostly unchanging, which also makes it easier to plan out charger locations.

    Refueling hydrogen is familiar for those use to gasoline cars, but you aren't feeling the pain in the wallet hydrogen has. For the range, gas prices would have to be $6 and up per gallon for the hydrogen car to break even with it. very few hydrogen support groups talk about the cost of building the needed infrastructure.

    The Japanese government is supporting hydrogen. The state of their grid means car charging isn't as viable as elsewhere, so hydrogen might be a better option for them. Which is why Honda is also pushing it. If hydrogen cars caught on in the rest of the world, it would make the cars for home cheaper. But Honda has drawn closer ties to GM in order to reduce their costs going into hydrogen and FCEV R&D. VW and other car makers have reduced, or cut, funding going to such for cars. Some are still doing commercial vehicles, because they see a better chance of success. I don't know why Hyundai is supporting it exactly.
     
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  18. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    French manufacturers are positioning themselves on hydrogen.

    The Parisian taxi company Hype, among other customers, has ordered it en masse since 2015, using SUVs Hyundai ix 35 FC to a lesser extent then Nexo, an opus benefiting from a potential of 700 kilometers of autonomy. The Korean engine manufacturer for its part has established itself in recent years as the world leader in the hydrogen car market, with 4,808 sales recorded in 2019. It has just announced the upcoming launch of a promotional campaign aimed at making familiarize European drivers with the virtues of hydrogen.
     
  19. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    any idea what percentage of that 4800 was government vehicles? Other than the tax dollar allocation downside, governmental use would obviously work in such cases because they aren't making long trips to other states or even Faraway jurisdictions hundreds of miles away. But then again Electrics can do long and short regular hauls w/out massive cost to build out and maintain the refueling infrastructure. Ironically, many areas that feel like hydrogen buses will work, never look at the data already made evident in Canada, where the cost of Maintenance was so expensive, it was cheaper to tear out the hydrogen systems and retrofit with diesel.

    Vancouver Ends Hydrogen Bus Program Amid High Costs | enrg.io

    Undoubtedly costs can be brought down on these kinds of gv'ment projects, at least a little bit, but it still doesn't pencil out when contrasted against the faster falling prices of regular old battery storage power. Maybe 10 years?

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    #39 hill, Sep 29, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2020
  20. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    On the news they said Ca. was 15% of US gaso demand...not sure if that is true but would seem to say Ca. is above avg.

    I am obviously having trouble with Ca. Newsom's new EV policy. The difference I think I see is Europe is going all-electric. ie: banning non-hybrids, which I can support based on Toyota success with hybrids. Ca. is banning all but zero emission EV/FCV which is extreme and costly for me because I will be asked to help subsidize Ca.'s extremism..
     
    #40 wjtracy, Sep 30, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2020
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