1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

Toyota Expects to Cut Cost of Fuel Cell System to 1/20

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by usbseawolf2000, Jul 26, 2014.

  1. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2005
    19,879
    8,175
    54
    Location:
    Montana & Nashville, TN
    Vehicle:
    2018 Chevy Volt
    Model:
    Premium
    Reconcile me this . . . PLEASE

    price reduced to 1/20 of . . . . 1.4 million? 1.5 million ?? Hasn't that astronomical # been kept top secret?

    OK for grins - we swallow the price as being ONLY $85,000 w/out subsidies. Heck, while we're in fantasy mode, pretend it's even made in the U. S. - rather than having more dollars flying out of the country.

    Now that we're all as high as a kite - we introduce REALITY. Toyota says it's not real:

    Toyota Admits It'll Take Until 2030 to Make Fuel Cell Vehicles Cost Competitive With EVs | Inside EVs

    It won't cost compete against the plug. Yet Toyota is pulling the plug on the plug. So you have to eliminate the competition? This sucks.

    Apart from that - the OP' article - on the one hand, seems to say, "weeeee!! - looky what we finally did !!"

    But out of the other side of Toyota's face nothing will really be affordable for at least another 15 years. And hasn't that really been their song & dance since as long as I can remember .... some 40+ years?
    .
     
    finman likes this.
  2. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    11,627
    2,530
    8
    Location:
    Southwest Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Two
    ^^
    Toyota is not pulling the plug on PHEV, but otherwise your post is amusing and spot on.
    CARB has a lot of influence. Usually for good reasons and with good results. I agree that they are wrong with regard to hydrogen.
     
    #22 SageBrush, Jul 29, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2014
  3. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2004
    14,487
    2,997
    0
    Location:
    Fort Lee, NJ
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    FCV would be for longer range capable electric vehicle. BEV would be for shorter range.

    [​IMG]

    Gas electric plugin (PiP) would also be for longer range.

    You just need to read what's in the link I provided (straight from Toyota) instead of beliving spin from an EV bias site.
     
  4. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2004
    14,487
    2,997
    0
    Location:
    Fort Lee, NJ
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    Nope. Incorrect.

    BEV relies on the existing charging infrastructure, very slow refueling but nonetheless an advantage over hydrogen.

    The problem is with the existing grid. It contains 67% fossil fuel.

    If you want to go 100% solar with BEV, good luck finding solar charging station not connected to grid.

    FC stack does generate some waste heat (33% loss) but not as much as ICE (60% loss). That's enough for cabin heat in winter without additional energy unlike BEV.

    Volt and Tesla battery pack has coolant too since they are liquid cooled. Volt has two additional coolants for ICE and inverter. Prius and PiP have two coolants.

    I am not sure about Toyota FCV. It may have two if the FC stack and inverter require different operating temps.
     
  5. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2006
    22,110
    11,552
    0
    Location:
    eastern Pennsylvania
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Toyota's site isn't very forth coming on details.

    The Nikkei piece states, "The cost of the fuel cell system of the fuel cell vehicle (FCV) that Toyota Motor Corp plans to release in 2015 is expected to be less than 1/20 that of the FCHV-adv." A leaked cost for the FCHV-adv was for a little over $129k. If the new fuel cell system is a twentieth of the cost as it, then it is down to $6,450. Less then the cost of the battery in first released BEVs. If true, why hurt comercialization of new technology by overcharging for? If not petty greed, then the starting cost was mistaken in the article. What is that cost?
    In-House Tank Manufacture Lowers Cost of Toyota FCV | News & Analysis content from WardsAuto

    Does Automotive News Europe have a bias for EVs or against FCEVs? That was Inside EVs source.
    Toyota targets 5,000 to 10,000 fuel cell sales a year
    Toyota's Soichiro Okudaira, chief officer, r&d Group, is saying their FCEV won't become price competitive with BEVs and other alternative fuel cars until the 2020s.
     
    bwilson4web likes this.
  6. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2009
    6,722
    2,121
    45
    Location:
    North Yorkshire, UK
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    III
    It's all hot air until I see one for sale in a show room for the price of a Prius.

    And then I'll wait for the first accident involving a fire and we'll really have some news with that; KABOOOOM :)

    [​IMG]
     
  7. drash

    drash Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2005
    2,483
    1,256
    0
    Location:
    Upstate NY
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Yep you're right, wrong fluid. I found out Teslas use antifreeze also to cool the battery pack. I should have said ATF fluid, but I'm not entirely sure that wouldn't be used as a coolant/lubricant for motors.


    iPad ? HD
     
  8. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2004
    14,487
    2,997
    0
    Location:
    Fort Lee, NJ
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    “And that’s a prototype vehicle, not a mass-produced vehicle. We’re looking at reducing the cost even more.

    $129k was quoted in 2011. FCHV-adv came out in 2008. After 3 years, some cost reduction would've been done. There must has been further progress after 2011 to reach the "1/20th" of the original 2008 cost.

    Well, their plan for a full scale roll out is 2020, meaning Gen2. I am not sure if that's for Japan only or global roll out.
     
  9. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2006
    22,110
    11,552
    0
    Location:
    eastern Pennsylvania
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    If the 1/20th the cost is truly based off that 2011 FCHV-adv number, why is Toyota charging nearly $70k for this car? $30k would likely cover production costs and leave enough for a nice profit.

    If it is 1/20th of the 2008 FCHC-adv cost, what is that cost?
     
    bwilson4web likes this.
  10. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    11,627
    2,530
    8
    Location:
    Southwest Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Two
    Price is set by demand, not by cost. Cost figures into profitability, but as the garbage Prius 'study' from a decade ago so well illustrated, deciding over how many cars R&D is spread changes cost dramatically. Expecting Toyota to ignore the R&D costs completely (just production costs and profit) is unreasonable.
     
  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2006
    22,110
    11,552
    0
    Location:
    eastern Pennsylvania
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    I just didn't mention the R&D costs. I just figured a nice profit instead of a slim one would cover it for the time being until the second generation. The first generation Priusdidn't cover the R&D. That wasn't paid off until the second generation model.

    A 20th of the 2011 FCHV-adv $129k cost is $6450 for the drive train. What is a reasonable amount for the car surrounding it and profit?

    Where is the demand for this car?
     
  12. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2004
    14,487
    2,997
    0
    Location:
    Fort Lee, NJ
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    Nope, read the first sentence quoted in the first post. It is based off 2008 figure.

    I have to wonder if you are choosing to stay confused or just intentionally trying to start uncertainty.

    In today's exchange rate, Japanese launch price is closer to $68,500. If we work the numbers backward, FCHV-adv would've cost them $1.37 million back in 2008.

    It is irreverent in the case of the major breakthrough in cost reduction in 7 years.

    Are you implying Toyota is trying to price is so high so they can make profit in the initial roll out? That's just asking for a launch disaster.

    If they were able to bring the price quicker, it would've been launched earlier.
     
  13. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2013
    1,218
    4
    0
    Vehicle:
    2013 Prius
    Model:
    One
    Well at least you got one sentence correct: Yes the National fossil fuel grid is about 60-70% fossil fuel (natural gas + coal). That's why EVs are rated no cleaner than Hybrids by greenercars.org. But some EV owners have solar roofs, so they charge their car off of that. Or they purchase solar via the "electric choice" program (I do this). Neither of these options are available to fuel cell cars which are powered off Natural Gas-derived hydrogen.

    So to repeat what I said: An FCV is fossil fuel powered. In contrast an EV gives you a choice on your fuel (install a solar roof, or pick a preferred provider that offers solar or hydro or nuclear or ____). EV is flexible.

    As for "slow" refueling, I don't see that. If I charge my Tesla EV at a supercharger, or Leaf with ChaDemo charger, I can refill my car in 20-30 minutes to continue on my trip. If I am at home, then it's about 2 minutes. 1 minute to plug it in at night, and 1 minute to disconnect it the next morning. How is that onerous? It's no worse than charging a cellphone. Hmmm. I think I just talked myself into saying "no" to the Hyundai Fuel Cell I was offered, and instead buy a Tesla EV. Well the fuel cell was pretty boring to drive anyway. ;) :) :D
     
  14. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2004
    14,487
    2,997
    0
    Location:
    Fort Lee, NJ
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    "But some EV owners have solar roofs, so they charge their car off of that. Or they purchase solar via the "electric choice" program (I do this)."

    They charge from the grid mix and sell back solar electrons to make profit to recoup panel cost. They charge at night when the sun is down anyway.

    If you dont have SREC, you cannot claim you are powered by solar.

    SuperCharger and ChaDemo are faster but not as fast as H2 refill. Plus, they are not available at homes where most owners refuel. Basically, not part of "existence" infrastructure.
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2006
    22,110
    11,552
    0
    Location:
    eastern Pennsylvania
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    A google of 'FCHV- adv cost' only leads to the 2011 $129k for a hard number.
    In today's exchange rate, Japanese launch price is closer to $68,500. If we work the numbers backward, FCHV-adv would've cost them $1.37 million back in 2008.[/quote]Why not simply say so in your first reply to me on the subject?
    How is it irreverent(did you mean irrelevant) when Toyota releases statements of reducing it by 95%?
    Don't bother. If the EV isn't directly plugged into a solar panel or wind turbine, then it is only getting the grid average in USBSeawolf's view.
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,397
    15,518
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Where is the car?

    Past examples of fool-cell cars were and remain impossible demos, the "beta" release.

    Bob Wilson
     
  17. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2006
    22,110
    11,552
    0
    Location:
    eastern Pennsylvania
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    So what that they aren't available at home. They are at home. Unless they are timesharing their garage, taking overnight to charge isn't a cost on their time.

    If a FCEV driver gets home with an empty tank, and needs to refuel, they have to get back into the car, drive down to the refueling station, refuel, and then drive back home. Even the more realistic scenario of leaving early the next morning incurs a greater cost of time to the person than charging up an EV at home.
     
  18. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2013
    1,218
    4
    0
    Vehicle:
    2013 Prius
    Model:
    One
    CALIFORNIA FUEL CELL CARS RUN OFF FOSSIL FUEL. THEY SUCK. End of line. ;) :) :D Also Hyundai told me it would take 15 minutes to refill their Tucson fuel cell, and that I'd have to do it every 260 miles. That's barely any faster (or better range) than a Tesla refill, plus it lacks the convenience of at-home charging (2 minutes to plug & unplug overnight).
     
  19. dipper

    dipper Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2005
    1,242
    252
    0
    Just look at NGV Honda Civic as a parallel to FCEV lifestyle.

    Look at how successful (I am sarcastic here. ;) ) NGV has done to the car industry. Refueling is a nightmare. NG stations are not easy to access even though it has been around for a long time. And when you find one, some of the pumps have pressure issues that will not allow full refuel. So you end up with a car with maybe half filled.

    By that alone, I will wait until FCEV can be perfected. Meanwhile, I am driving an electric guzzler (Rav4ev) and still x2 cheaper than driving a PIP.
     
  20. drash

    drash Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2005
    2,483
    1,256
    0
    Location:
    Upstate NY
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Or you can get a NG refueling station for home and refill it within 12 hours.