Featured Toyota Is Losing the Electric Car Race, So It Pretends Hybrids Are Better

The race hasn't even started yet. What has been done so far that would qualify as mainstream penetration? Thinking these warm-up laps taking place now (sales subsidized by tax-credits) are what count as efforts to compete directly with traditional vehicles... the actual race... is just early-adopter rhetoric. How many ordinary consumers are actually that gullible to believe such nonsense?

Media outlets posting such dribble are taking advantage of hype to draw traffic to their publication. The knowledge of "there's a sucker born every minute" is just as relevant now as it was when back when that phrase was first coined. Think about how much easier it is to fool people now that anyone can post a comment online.

Look around. We are surrounded by guzzlers running on cheap gas and outright denial of their impact. That harsh reality is something "EV Market" spinners don't want you to notice. They direct focus on just the plug-in offerings to avoid addressing what really matters... change of the status quo.

Legacy automakers have a massive undertaking required to get their own loyal customers to embrace greener choices. Focus on the low-hanging fruit people are eating right is such a waste. Whomever wins the warm-up laps doesn't matter. In fact, that competition to follow isn't just a single 500-laps around the track either. There will be many races. Consider how many models of vehicle each automaker must implement battery-powered technology in.
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Look (but maybe not too closely) at Norway. Their EV adoption is head of the class, despite an inhospitable seasonal environment for batteries. Electricity isn't terribly expensive, petro is. Not too many roads beyond the southernmost cities, and plenty of trains and planes to service those distance runs anyway.

 

Norway is one of the oil producing countries. Most oil we burn in US is Norwegian. Yet, they are adopting BEVs. It's political will, which ultimately (in a democratic society) is the will of the people. US is a very, VERY different place with very different people.

 

Some more oil providers.
Saudi Arabia charging ahead with electric vehicles

 

Well, enough people do care enough about the environment and/or the impact of imported fuels that the standards for fuel efficiency emissions continue to become stricter. More manufacturers are going to turn to hybridization to meet those regulations with time. In a few years, there won't be a traditional ICE car available from Volvo, and the base engine in the Ram pick-up is a mild hybrid, for example.

Then with no set demarcation between a traditional car and a hybrid, many will not know the drive they drive is a hybrid, nor will they care. They just see car that requires the same level of attention from them as their past cars, or they soon will. The hybrid car race is actually a marathon of how long the traditional car can hold out, which could be some time depending on market. The current ICE Camry's combined EPA rating matches the first gen Camry hybrid's.

And that is just in the US. Not every BEV in China is a 'true' car.

Well, a majority of people are unwilling to pay a premium for a hybrid, and neither could a majority pay the premium for a car over a horse or bicycle. The early cars were only accessible to the wealthy. They really didn't take off until Ford decided to pay his workers enough to be able to afford the product they make. Without subsidies from day one, the Prius would not reached its success, and hybrids only do well where fuel is expensive. Operating costs, and pay off times, become bigger considerations in their sales, because that is all hybrids have going for them to the majority. The few performance hybrids out there are becoming PHEVs, because the plug gives more performance for the price. In general, plug ins offer more than hybrids.

Another factor to adoption of the new, is what you are seeing, familarity. People tend to stick to what they know. When they can't physically see the new, it is easier for them to discount it, and stick to what the know. When people read about those new-fangled automobiles, it was easy to shrug them off as just a fad for the foolish. When the local well to do get a car or two, the people start seeing first hand how a car could have an advantage over the horse.

I agree on PHEVs being the best compromise. Toyota doesn't, they want to move to hydrogen FCEVs. Hybrids are just a better ICE car though. They can reduce the use of fuels, and the associated negatives, but they are still tied to the pump. While doing so may not be practical, it is possible to switch away from the grid if the plug in owner isn't happy with its source of power.

As for being more popular there, there is data.
European Electric Car Sales Increased 42% In H1 2018 vs H1 2017 | CleanTechnica
Why Europe Beats USA Again In Electric Car Sales | CleanTechnica
My quick search didn't result in any in depth for the reasons why that is so. The above articles do bring up other potential reasons; the US dealer system being a negative pressure on sales, and that smaller cars are more popular in Europe.

US sales took second place form Europe recently, but that may only be temporary as changes in EU regulations were taking effect.
US zooms past Europe in electric car sales

On electric rates, I took a quick look at France since they mostly use nuclear power. Rates are among the lowest in Europe, and they have had some high EV adoption rates, but they are also home to Renault, who may have had more to do with the Leaf than Nissan.

I did, because I think they have a good supply of geothermal power, in the above link, you see their electric rates are in the average band for Europe. Even if their rates were low, untangling their effect from their generous EV incentives, is more than I'm willing to personally do on the subject.

 

Maybe a bitter pill, but maybe time everyone took a fresh look at their driving "needs"? Not saying overnight, draconian, just something to consider in the mix.

Not just individuals, corporations, governments as well.

 

So you agree there is Hybrid Car Race going on, or at least soon.
Welcome, Toyota has been leading for 22 years.


Regarding EPA numbers, you got me time-warped

Camry XV40 hybrid (2.4) 2006 - EPA after 2008 revision:
estimates 33 mpg‑US (7.1 L/100 km; 40 mpg‑imp) (city) and 34 mpg‑US (6.9 L/100 km; 41 mpg‑imp) (highway).

Camry XV70 (2.5 traditional) 2017
estimates 29MPG (city), 41MPG highway

So you compare cars of two generations, 11 years apart? Seriously?!

Congrats apples to oranges comparing!!!


And about today?... Camry XV70 (2.5 hybrid) - 44MPG (city), 47MPG (highway)
Try beating that with a traditional ICE.

Case closed.

 

I would say toyota isn't losing the race its choosing not to invest much or competing well in plug-in vehicles. The thread started with an "article" which was really just a reprint of an opinion piece on desmogblog. That blog like most is biased, but IMHO is an excellent source of who is paying to get disinformation out on environmental issues. I would not take there word for anything like defining a race or deciding who is "winning".

The blog post was in reaction to this sort of bizarre article in car and driver.
The Simple Reason Toyota Doesn't Sell Any Full-Electric Vehicles

That definitely seems like an excuse not a reason. It does take time to ramp battery production. It took tesla/panasonic around 4 years from the time they picked nevada, to having battery production at the required throughput through the gigafactory. But that had new battery pack design, new robots and programming and lack of cash slowing it down, toyota could likely do it with a partner in 3 or less. Toyota's prius phv was first sold in 2012, so they have had 7 years to decide on a battery, build a factory, etc.

We can probably glean more of the real reason from this article.
Toyota sells 1.52 million electrified vehicles in 2017, three years ahead of 2020 target | Corporate | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

The top 2 goals are fuel cell related. 2015 when toyota made those goals is around the time they would have needed to invest in battery production for a hot selling big batteried (phev or bev) car or partnered with someone to supply them. Toyota had pretty deep pockets in 2015, but perhaps they were worried that governments would not subsidize their fuel cells as much if they were much more sucessful selling phevs.

In 2018 toyota hybrid (including phevs) declined in the US and Japan but toyota has not disclosed full figures yet so it is unknown globally.

For a breakdown world wide by model and year this is interesting information.
Hybrid Model Global Sales Results 2011―2018 | Sales, Production, and Export Results | Profile | Company | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website
Between 2011 (bad year because of fukashima) and 2012 toyota/lexus's electrified sales (hybrids + phevs) grew 94% to 1.22 Million. For the next 5 years there were gains and declines but cumulatively growing because of sales out side the US and Japan 25% to 1.52 Million vehicles with the prime 51,000 of those. It looks like toyota is no longer quickly updating their hybrid sales chart, but I hope they fill in details later in the year for 2018.

 

No, I think it is already over, and the mild hybrid will win before the plug ins start taking major market share. There can be debate on whether the power-split or parallel hybrid proves to be the most successful full hybrid, but they will lose out to milds on price. The thing that saves them long term is the addition of a plug, but then they aren't on Team Hybrid anymore.

It was an illustration of how well the traditional car has improved. No, it won't beat a hybrid sibling of the same generation, but that is because the hybrid is leveraging the same advances in ICE technology that the traditional model is using. Then being the most efficient isn't enough when the higher cost isn't recouped in the fuel savings. The Camry hybrid LE is about $3000 more than the traditional LE. It can take 6 to 7 years to achieve pay back for the hybrid premium. Given the choice, many will opt for the traditional model. A mild hybrid won't net the gains of the full, but it can be low enough in cost to become standard equipment, and not have customers abandon the model or brand.

 

and not a US automaker in the bunch.

 

And not a volume EV shipper or a volume battery factory "owner/partner" in place today.

 

They fall under the 'and others'. GM already has two PHEVs based on the Volt for sale in China, with at least one BEV arriving this year. Ford has had plug in plans in works for years, and revealed the 2020 Aviator PHEV earlier this year alongside the Explorer hybrid.

 

In the USA, a lot depends on political choice (shocking? not really) and so far hybrids have not been treated as well as plug-ins.

What's happening is the Federal BEV rebates are wearing off, and the blue states are thinking they have take the ball and set high taxes on gaso vehcles and cap CO2 emissions, and give large incentives to the winners. The RGGI northeast states are forming a northeast transportation CO2 reduction organization. Virginia (blue now) plans to join RGGI and the transport CO2 reduction club and commit to reduce auto CO2 levels. So it remains to be seen if the true goal is CO2 reduction (which hybrids like Prius should do well) but usually they want to pick the winners which would be plug-ins. In that case Toyota hybrids would not do well. But it's all political choice.

 

as of 12/31/18 ma dropped the plug in incentive for bev only

 

You blew your Prime chance

 

nah, toyota blew it with the raised deck. they lost at least one sale, and some good will.

 

That's not how the early-adopter market works. This is why you get the "know your audience" every time you complain or try to prematurely draw a conclusion.

Knowing goals is the second part of that wisdom to share. An automaker can only be losing if they fail to achieve their goal. Notice how others are placing their statements in front of Toyota's to make it appear as though Toyota is struggling? That's how spin works.

We have been watching Toyota set the stage for very wide-spread acceptance of electrification, offering a variety of choices across their entire fleet. The dealer's showroom floor will have diversification no other automaker has achieved. Though, we do see Hyundai/Kia working toward that same goal.

Kudos to anyone genuinely working toward the phaseout of traditional vehicles. It's not easy and there will be a lot of people who will declare blowing it prior to even having finished the early-adopter phase... which is very clearly defined as the time when government subsidies (both federal & state) are offered to help establish those new choices.

 

greenwashing, red herring

 

That is precisely the reaction I got from spelling out how GM's actions applied to the market. Enthusiasts were absolutely furious with me from the observations I pointed out. They didn't want such thorough analysis of business & consumer to be correct. That was last year, predicting Volt's demise and explaining why in great detail. You can imagine the reaction they had upon finding out what I claimed was dead on.

Study of need and careful consideration of next steps makes it easy to look beyond rhetoric. Cries from enthusiasts don't matter. All they can do is demonstrate the technology. It's responses from ordinary consumers that influence change. Progress comes from true leadership, that ability to get the masses to accept something new.

Dismiss that all you want. It won't change the outcome. Who is losing what?