Toyota to make plug-ins standard for Prius from 2014-Nikkei

The main reason why I would be skeptical is simply that the PHEV technology is still not accepted by enough of the public to make it 'standard'. As noted above, as an option across the board, it may make sense.

What of all those others that can't utilize the plugin technology, bad neighborhood, no access to an outlet, can't afford the upgraded technology, etc? Should these users/buyers simply be brushed off....'...make more money and get a house in the suburbs...'. Not likely IMO.

There will always be a HUGE demand for a less expensive option that still gets excellent fuel economy. 'Prius c?'

I can see where the iconic Prius and the soon-to-be-released Prius v might fully become 'electrified' while the Prius c stays with the tried and true ( and inexpensive ) simple hybrid technology.

In the end Toyota is in business simply to sell the most vehicles to the largest number of buyers. Making all the Prius models plugins limits the range of potential buyers...bad juju in business.

 

Hmmm ... where did you get that idea ?

Anyway, Li batteries are now cheaper & lighter compared to NIMH. No reason to use NIMH patent or no patent.

 

maybe they could just design the 4th gen prius with a swappable battery pack. every prius will have a "plug" as a standard feature, but it wont be functional until you add the optional battery. this would streamline production, keep the entry price low, and give the buyer the option of regular hybrid or plug-in with the same car.

 

That's why Toyota should make all the batteries in the Prius PHV charge like they do now in the regular Gen 3 car. That way if you don't plug in the car, it will self charge and maintain those batteries. It could be plugged in to lessen regen time, or let the car take car of itself.

Mike

 

Good thinking. That would make logical sense.

As this author pointed out, we should also consider that by 2014, technology will have improved by 2.5 years by then. Toyota's design will likely be more efficient (consider Gen I Prius to Gen II to Gen III), and they might also have figured out a way to pack more energy into the battery; increasing the EV range without increasing the battery volume. Can The Prius Popularize Plug-In Hybrid Electric Cars? | Fast Company Also, with more competition in the market in both hybrids and plug-ins, hopefully innovation will accelerate. Any of the major automakers could make a revolutionary break-through.

Got a link? Maybe that's just a rumor! Lol.

 

this is great!
the sales will outperform the loss

 

It has been thoroughly written in this forum that ICE as a generator for battery charge is a bad efficiency game. I'm surprised.
You have a Prius, you must know that for ages.

 

This. Not (just) because it increases the PHEV pool but because it would mean that all the Gen 4s will have the other improvements that the plug-in mules had to cope with a bigger pack, and that means better HEV operation.

 

Not the point I was making. I expect that just like our current prii, the software will maintain appropriate SOC of the batteries to have them last a long time even if you do not plug it in. This is different than the demo vehicles, but highly likely in production vehicles.

Of course it will be more efficient to plug in the car to charge the batteries than use the ice to charge them unless your electricity is highly inefficient.

This applies to a prius plug in regardless of whether or not the gen IV prius is plug in only or plug in optional.

 

US is 1 year behind Gen III is 2009 model in Japan, not 2010. Since it is a Nikkei news, they must be talking about Japanese market?

 

Ovonics has key nanotube patents, they had built batteries with 50-100Wh/kg, 1000W/kg and 385Wh/L. For comparison Li are typically 100-250Wh/kg, 250-340W/kg and 250-620Wh/L. There is also a question of efficiency, NiMH are 66% efficient and Li-ion ~80-90% and durability (current crop of NiMH can go through more cycles).

If you compare NiMH to Li, you can build the same size/capacity NiMH, which will be heavier less efficient but will have x3-4 charge/discharge rate. The same size battery will take 2hr to charge vs 7hr, and you'd be able to capture 60% of regenerative energy, vs 20-25%.

With respect to price there is not enough commercially viable Lithium to power all vehicles on the road, and prices will continue to go up as demand increases. However there is enough Nickel, and it is cheap.

 

I hear what you are saying but I was chuckling a bit ....

heck, even any type of regular hybrid is not accepted nearly enough by the public. IIRC, hybrids have ~ 3% market share of all cars. I see Prii's here and there and some others, but, man, the roads are dominated by conventional cars and trucks.

Gonna ramble for a sec .........
geez the delta on city / hwy fuel economy is large in conventionals -

My coupe clocked ~ 38 MPG hwy (going by pump), but it can also do under 24 MPG city.

That Prius of mine was consistent with fuel economy - city and highway were pretty similar and both high.

HSD >> conventional ICE

 

Nickel $24802.50/m tonne
(For reference Copper $8935.25/m tonne)
Lithium carbonate is about $6500/m tonne so the metal could be more expensive.

However, as far as I am aware lithium batteries use less of the metal than nickel batteries so the battery cost is less dependent on the metal.

The supply is an issue in the very long term, but if prices go up the amount of commercial viable lithium will also rise.

Basically, barring newer technologies, nickel batteries would eventually make a comeback, but that's in the very long term.

 

Pure metal is priced about $300/lb (x100) but apparently cost of raw material in batteries is only ~3%. So most of the cost comes from processing.

here is some info on Lithium economics: Lithium Carbonate Supplies Abound! – Sequence Omega

Nickel is about $7-18/lb, but the cost in total production is 20-30%.

There is also lifetime costs NiMH will take x2 times charges to Li-ion.

BTW Toyota-Panasonic had designed NiMH batteries with 90 wh/kg (4kWh for current 100lbs Prius pack) but they cannot sell them due to patent infringement. Current pack is 1.5kWh, so x3 capacity for the same price in 2014, when patents expire.

 

Li is 3/40 w/w of LiHCO3, so Li metal is 6500*40/3 = $86,666 a metric ton. I have no idea about processing costs.

 

i would guess that simply said, Prius PHV will have same factory options as non-PHV one .

If that makes any sense. And plus, it is still an "unconfirmed source" not Toyota official.

 

it is sold as Li2CO3, so it is only x11 cost, $73,273 by weight.

Another thing to consider 61% of it CO2. for every lb of lithium you are releasing x3.3 times CO2.

 

I'll take your word for it being Li(2)CO(3).
If that is the case the w/w is 6/(6+12+24) = 7x, $46628 a metric ton for Li metal, about double the above posted cost of Nickel metal.

 

Toyota: Plug-in Prius won't be standard, has limited appeal - Drive On: A conversation about the cars and trucks we drive - USATODAY.com

All Priuses Should Be Plug-in Hybrids by 2014 — No Matter What Toyota Says Now | BNET

Is the phv going to be $3000 more or $10,000 more? Toyota still is being tight lipped. It will definitely be a bad pr move if the car is $10K more than a comparable prius.