Toyota working on improved Prius Plug-in as part of the next generation Prius platform

I'm not sure such comparisons can be made accurately. The courage to purchase an EV or PHEV is based on the history of HEV success and familiarity. The Prius is IMO solely responsible for this success. If EVs had come out before hybrids would the adoption rate be nearly as high?

 

Good point:

• 2001 - $21,000 price offered for new Prius, Gen 1
• 2012 - $32,000 price offered for new Leaf, other EVs even higher, recently reduced

There has been a reduction in EV prices but we're still looking at significantly higher than the 2001-03 earlier HV prices. But we can't take away the 'votes with bucks.'

The dollars spent on EVs sends a powerful message of the latent demand. Hopefully those whose decided to kill the EV1 see that article and are 'kicking their own butts.'

Bob Wilson

 

Spending by customers (ASP is higher than hybrids were), sales volume in units, growth rate, announcements of new plug-in designs all those things to measure a more healthy market.

This is not a graph to show which manufacturer will do better in the future. In the hybrid space the thing that won it for Toyota was the gen II. This graph simply says there is quite a lot of demand, much more than there was for hevs at a similar time, in the US. It is the reason toyota needs to come out with a good next generation phev. Since we are short of details we don't know how big of a share of the plug-in market that will take. I am hopeful that they will bring better designs out, and in 2015 they do better.

July 2013 Dashboard - HybridCars.com

You can see when adding all the cars toyota was number 5 in market share in the US, they are doing better in Japan where ford, gm, and tesla don't currently compete, but they sell more plug-ins in the US. The US and China appear to be the big markets for plug-ins the next 5 years (the time of a design). The previous chart along with the information I showed from McKinsey show what a big opportunity Toyota has to make money with plug-in designs.

 

The sales # are on the y-axis.
This is aggregating the entire plug-in car market, not differentiating individual models like LEAF, PiP, Tesla, etc.

 

$21,000 in 2001 dollars = $29,069 in 2012 dollars, after assuming 3% inflation/year

$32,000-$29,069 = a premium of $3000 or so........but gas savings of $1200/year in gasoline = 2.5 year payback

 

The number of traffic light vehicle sensors under the pavement is huge, withstands snowplows, and installation is quite affordable. Regardless of my opinion on wireless chargers, the cost for under-pavement wiring is probably not a showstopper.

 

Still cheaper than gasoline

 

I think we make a big mistake when analyzing initial adopter purchases in terms of payback. In 2003, gas was less than $2/gallon, gas savings would only be around $300/year using 15,000 miles and better than epa reported spreads in mpg reported.
Compare Side-by-Side
The price premium wasn't covered by gas savings, people were buying the tech, just as they are doing today for plug-in vehicles.

Today in hybrids we can see some payback. This was not the case in 2003. Back then it was the promise of the technology. The geek or cool factor of having a car that could turn itself off, recharge when braking, tell you all sorts of information in a mfd. In california, some plug-ins if you include the value of tax credits and hov stickers already have lower tco than similar ice only vehicles, but its still a new initial adopter market. In california where gas prices are higher, cars like the prius or camry hybrid have fairly quick paybacks in terms of tco compared to non hybrid cars.

If we believe this analysis, all that needs to happen to make plug-ins better deals are naturally falling battery costs and naturally rising gasoline prices

Battery technology charges ahead | McKinsey & Company

 

CORRECTION: Was the chart inflation adjusted for the decade difference in prices?

The chart is units, the "(USD)" was an unfortunate error that by accident was propagated through the original post. No fault, no foul. The sales units, Y-axis appear to be close enough to be right. The NHW11 sold just under 54,000 but there was also a Honda Insight. I don't remember when the Honda Civic came to market.

Bob Wilson

 

and - an auto industry intent on seeing Tesla fail - running to their legislators to try and force Tesla to establish their own type of antiquated sales process - which ironically is in part why the established system failed (went bankrupt) in the first place.

 

The chart I put up I think was mislabled and should have been units.

 

It was the "(USD)" that had me confused but when I look at the units, it doesn't match.

Thanks,
Bob Wilson

 

True, and the wider selection also boosts the segment's sales.
But the main point is that the sales are growing, and calling plug ins a failure now is premature.

Toyota is doing it because others are also working it. In other words, in order to not fall behind. Yes, a wireless option will expand the PPI appeal, but I believe most people buying it for the wireless charge will end up using the plug. It has been pointed out that the smaller battery has a charging time advantage. The current PPI can be charged in 3 hrs from a 15 amp outlet. So it's a $0 to serval thousand $ comparison. If the new owner wants level 2 charging for cabin preconditioning, it's $500 to the thousands.

I think allowing the next PPI to pre-heat the cabin will be a bigger seller than wireless charging.

We don't have the money to repair and replace bridges and roads now. Where will the funds come to embed wireless charging in highways. Hydrogen infrastructure might be cheaper to install.

The cost difference will likely be about $2000, or even a $1000, by the time the next PPI comes out. The larger battery has a performance advantage beyond range, too. It can supply power to the motor faster, allowing better performance. Since 0 to 60 times aren't that impressive here, it also improves energy capture of regenerative braking.

The infrastructure doesn't need to be advanced. It is already in place. The vast majority of people's driving are local trips. The current, first gen BEVs can do most of that with the charge they can get at home. The Volt and Energis can do a good chunk on EV now. Toyota is talking about increasing PPI EV range, so it should be fine with one charge per day also. The wireless charging is an option to draw in sales.

Now, a charging infrastructure is needed for BEVs on long trips. That requires level 3(or is it DC level 1 and 2 now) charging. Wireless charging isn't capable of charging at such speeds. It might never be do to safety in regards to the magnetic and induction fields.

Apartment dwellers are SOL right now. The type of charging their EV can use or battery size isn't going to incentivize their land lord into installing charging though. If they have a progressive land lord, the chargers are likely going to be the less expensive option. In a city, parking alone can be an issue.

Battery prices are dropping, and supercapacitors are starting to work their way into cars now. So these cars' pricing will drop, and they already displace a good chunk of gasoline. Alter public policy to allow more options in terms of range extender and ICE only fuel, and more gas is displaced when the engines are used

It is only cheaper on the car's purchase price, and then it might not be much. The additional cost of the charger, and the cost for more can not be ignored. Then there is the price the charging company will charge. Many corded ones charge a rate that is multiple times higher than charging at home, and is more per mile than using gasoline.

 

Sorry, I was confused. It was a mistake by the DOE. Here is the primary source, I think corrected.

EV Sales Skyrocketing. eGallon Holds Steady. | Department of Energy

 

From what I've seen, these just require a cut in the pavement and the wire laid in the cut.Like lawn irrigation system installs.
I don't know exactly the charging pad entails. Is there required shielding, or is it mostly empty space under the plastic, or are some components greatly thicker than a wire. I suspect that pavement is going to need to be ripped up and then repatched for these chargers.

This calculator has $21k in 2001 at $27.7k today.
Inflation Calculator: Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

fyi, about some inductive charging tests
Wireless charging for e-cars and buses is arriving : TreeHugger

IMHO adding an optional upgrade part on a car is fairly easy, and Toyota is right to do it. Some people will want these things. IMHO the chance of success in the next 10 years is very low given my projected infrastructure costs. Some poeple will want to buy these things so that they don't need to plug in, in their garages. IMHO the trouble with pluging-in is mainly FUD from anti-plug-in groups. That means sales will be low for the next decade. Its easy to be wrong about future technology though, and this could take off, but only if plug-ins take off in sales. At a mininum, in order for people to pay for these, range needs to be at least the average one-way commute, which in the US is approximately 15 miles (I commute much less than average, but have many non-commute miles). To add the last 20% charge seems to be slow with current battery technology, which makes the smallest range 15/80% = 19 miles, and the next gen prius phv could easily be this range. The infrastructure if these are daytime chargers needs to be there to cover daytime charging. The grid has plenty of excess charging capacity at night, but is constrained during the day.

 

One thing is certain. Folks who go EV do not want to go back to ICE. That should assist with the conversion over time.

 

Yep and august looks like it has continued the growth in plug-ins. We should know more when the official numbers are counted.
August Best Selling Month Ever For EVs; Chevy Volt To Be First Plug-In To Pass 3,000 Mark

 

In other words, China has already built over 1,000 miles of the stuff

 

link?