Toyota Working On Solid-state & Lith-Air Batteries

Excellent! I don't mean that I think these toyota batteries will be the winners, its just excelent that toyota now is saying they expect to have technology to build an affordable 300 mile bev in a decade. I'm sure if this new toyota battery dosn't make it, a different companies company will produce the needed battery.

As a range extender for long trips there is also the possiblility aluminum air batteries. IBM has been working on these things for years. A small company partnered with alcoa may be first to the automotive market though.
Alcoa Teams With Phinergy to Develop Claimed 1,000-Mile Aluminum Air Battery Technology (w/video)
Aluminum air is not rechargeable by recyclable. Perhaps in a decade they will partner with the oil change places, and you pop in, they change out the plates in 5 minutes and get them to the recycling center. If you have a 80 mile lithium battery, it would probably only require a plate change twice a year ;-) for the extender.

This is more of a long shot, but there are many things that could win in the 2030s that don't require lithium air commericalization.

 

Who knows?

But I think advancement in battery technology is potentially a huge avenue for improvement of "alternative" automobiles.

But when you are projecting that far into the future you never know what technology might step in and change the game.

 

20 years out we already know the technologies. That aluminum air I mentioned was first produced in the 1960s. We have lithium ion and lithium polymer which is a form of lithium ion that I think toyota is calling solid state. Both of these have room for improvement, and it is quite likely that toyota/apple/panasonic/lg/samsung/jci or someone will have a "breakthrough" in the next decade to double the energy to weight (kwh/kg) and energy to volume (kwh/liter) as we have these things working in the lab. price also is falling at about 7%/year on these technologies so in a decade even with no break through $/kwh should be half or less.

The lithium solid state is promising, someone will probably crack it for viability. Here is anouther group. Toyota can buy from whoever does best if they aren't the one to develop themselves.
Solid-state battery developed at CU-Boulder could double the range of electric cars | University of Colorado Boulder

On the things ahead we have range extenders of aluminum air, zinc air, fuel cells, or ice (diesel/gas/flexfuel/biofuels, atkinson/miller cycle/otto/compression ignition).

On replacement for lithium ion/lithium polymer/lithium solid state we have potentially super caps, lithium air, lithium sulfer, zinc air - now super caps can be used on their own or with any of the batteries or range extenders.

I don't expect any brand new technologies for cars in the next 20 years because it takes a long time to commercialize, and all these technologies have a lot of possibilities for improvement.

Plug-in cars benefit from any improvements.

 

I look at it like the early days of the automobile when you had competing ideas and formats. Sometimes the "winner" isn't really the one that you would expect.

That's what I mean by we really don't know.

Battery technology advancement is great. Whether it leads to Super Hybrids, or Super Electrics...or eventually something totally different with totally different products.

I do however think it would be a mistake to think anyone should be sure what new technologies might be improved or employed or gain popularity, when you are looking at a 20-30 + year scope.

It takes a long time to commercialize? I agree with that. But more basically in that usually change is slow. I think if we want something...it can be commercialized very quickly.

The fossil fuel based ICE auto industry in entrenched and despite challenges, thriving. I don't expect change will be all that rapid.

But sometimes it's just how you look at it isn't it? I don't know if you would of taken me back 20 years ago, and told me that someday Toyota would offer a family of Prius Hybrids...along with several stand alone hybrid vehicles. Plus Ford would offer Hybrids on a mass level....would I of believed that level of change would happen that rapidly?

Sometimes I'm amazed how quickly things can change...and other times I'm discouraged by how slowly change seems to be embraced.

 

+1

Yes, I didn't mean to imply we know the winner. I just meant to state that we know the contenders, which technologies are in the race.

The prius came about from advances in micro-electronics in a diffrent industry, and Japanese government funding of BEVs. MITI (Japanese government agency that funded these things) thought at the time BEVs and Fuel cells were what was going to win by now. The BEV money helped toyota and panasonic develop the systems (batteries, motor generators, inverters) that they needed, and consumer electronics in japan provided the electrical control that was needed for the american idea of a power split device.

The hybrid gives the possiblity that hybrids and/or plug-in hybrids may be the winnning technology when oil gets more expensive, not just fuel cells or bevs. Better batteries help all 4 technologies (hv, phev, bev, and fuel cell (with possibility of plug-in fuel cell).

Sucessful air as electrolyte if utilized in lithium air, zinc air, or aluminum air, may kill phev and fuel cell vehicles, leaving us with hybrids and bevs. No one knows when the breakthroughs will come, but even lithium solid state, makes fuel cells less likely.

Its about the slow speed car companies move and the regulators. If you need a 8 year waranty, its going to take a long time to test that battery.
+1

20 years ago? I would have thought serial phevs and bevs would have more market. I thought there would be more cars running on methanol. But know the hsd was nowhere on my radar. I thought a serial phev with lead acid, changing to nimh would come about, but my dad worked for a auto supplier that had experimented a lot with electric cars and motorcycles.

I still want a jet pack. We were promised jet packs.

 

I'm just hoping battery tech gets lighter so it will help those drones that austingreen likes so much.

 

We were promised Jet Packs...Flying Cars and 3 day work weeks.

I only have 2 of those 3 things...and I'm not telling which....

 

heh, heh. I do like drones, just not some things we are doing with them. They do require regulation. I love the idea of drones for search and rescue and for delivering medicine. I don't like the idea of drones killing someone that can be captured and tried, especially if no judge has even said he was guilty. Nor do I like the idea of drones unregulated in airspcace that I may fly in, or invading privacy. I am even fine with drones executing terrorists, as long as we make sure there is not undue collateral damage, a judge has signed off, and we can not capture without likely loss of human life. I hope you agree the following type of drone strikes should be avoided.

Fatal error in ‘wedding party’ drone strike prompts UN condemnation — RT News

Those aluminum air batteries are ideal for drones light and recyclable. You don't need a heavy second pack chaging in the field when you want to go, just drop in more light aluminum.

 

Interesting article because it led to the "Rustom I" prototype drone:

Sure enough, this is a Rutan designed, Long Eze.

Bob Wilson