Featured Toyota's Master Plan for a Low Carbon Future

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by Prius Pete, Feb 13, 2020.

  1. Prius Pete

    Prius Pete Active Member

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    Toyota Canada CEO defends Toyota's strategy

    "But, if overall carbon reduction is our true goal — and we think it should be — then public policy needs to embrace, not discourage lower cost, potentially [more efficient] solutions using already available technology. And here’s why: Carbon reduction can only be achieved by consumers deciding to spend their own money in ways that deliver a practical return for themselves."
    Motor Mouth: Toyota’s master plan for a low-carbon future | Driving
     
  2. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Auto sales are down in general, so pointing out lower BEV sales doesn't really mean anything on it's own.

    The only public policy discouraging hybrids without a plug in the US is the few states with added hybrid fees, who also apply, generally higher, ones to plug ins, and our low fuel prices.
     
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  3. Prius Pete

    Prius Pete Active Member

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    Toyota/Lexus HEV/PHEV/FCV sales rose 31.3% in North America in 2019 (17.8% globally), without government incentives or investment.
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    tesla too

    maybe the author isn't old enough to remember how prius were incentivized into the market
     
    #4 bisco, Feb 13, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 14, 2020
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  5. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    The guy who does the "fully charged" youtube channel gives a very clear spoken response to the absurdity of the future of hybrid cars in his recent video about electric trucks:



    By every measure other than Toyota profits, the hybrid car era is rapidly concluding and the full electric era is where all vehicle makers except Toyota are focused now.
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Source: Motor Mouth: Toyota’s master plan for a low-carbon future | Driving

    So, here’s something most people don’t know [about the engineering efficiency of greenhouse gas reduction]: The average battery capacity in a BEV is about 60 kWh. The average battery capacity in a Toyota hybrid is 1.4 kWh. In practical terms, that means you could build 42 Priuses in place of the 60 kWh battery in one BEV. Forty-two Priuses — each reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent — would have the impact of 12 ZEVs. So, the question is this: For the same resources — the same total number of battery cells — do you want the GHG reduction of one car? Or 12? And that’s 12 vehicles without range anxiety, government incentives, or even any infrastructure investment.
    . . .
    Governments have their environmental goals. So does Toyota. The government has a carbon reduction objective: 30 per cent by 2030. Toyota wants to get there, too. In fact, we want to go further. And we have a solid, practical plan to get there.

    Twenty years ago, when we introduced Canadians to hybrids, we sold 225 of them in the first year. Last year, we sold more than 34,000 across the country, representing almost 15 per cent of our overall sales in 2019. More importantly, we project electrified vehicles will, by 2025, be 43 per cent of our sales. That means hybrids — and plug-in hybrids — are playing the biggest role in helping Canada achieve its emissions targets.
    . . .

    Elephant in the room, my BEV, a Standard Range Plus Model 3, is half the cost per mile as the Prius Prime we traded in for $18,300. Not counting free electric charging, it run ~$2.50 / 100 mi in the city and ~$3.50 / 100 mi on the Supercharger highway. On a recent, January winter trip, $3.00 / 100 mi because we stayed at motels with free, overnight chargers.

    From October 2005 through March 2019, we always owned one or more Prius and loved them because they were so frugal. But in 2016, we got our first BMW i3-REx with 72 mi EV and a motorcycle sized gas engine. Soon our stodgy Prius became 'driveway art' compared to the zippy BMW. We like fast accelerating and crisp handling of a car that also cut the cost per mile in half in EV driving around town.

    My Prius studies, a speed vs HP chart, have long suggested the 0-60 mph (~100 kph) time, ~10-13 seconds, is limited by Toyota's control laws. The skinny tires on the BMW i3 achieve closer to less than 8 seconds, I once was curious about why Toyota gutted their Prius but we no longer have a dog in that fight.

    I am not here to criticize the Prius that has been a brilliant solution. Rather technology has moved on. Toyota's rationalization about the ratio of my Tesla 55 kWh battery versus how many sedate Prius could be built . . . well I guess he thinks the engine and transaxles are free.

    I also have fond memories of my 1966 VW MicroBus but that doesn't mean I'd trade in either of our cars for one. After all, I rebuilt my VW, 1500 cc, engine and remember the box of parts and tool box always carried around to make sure I'd complete my trips.

    If Toyota wants to get more Prius/hybrid buyers, make them at least compete with the BMW i3 and out perform their own ICE cars. The way to grow market share, a better product.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  7. Prius Pete

    Prius Pete Active Member

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    2019 US i3 sales: 4853 (-21%) 2019 North American sales of Toyota/Lexus HEV/PHEV/FCV: 326845 (+31%). Toyota has nothing to learn from BMW about selling more hybrids. (Yes I know I'm comparing one model to a range of models and US sales to North American sales but I think my point still stands)
     
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    As far as I'm concerned, the Toyota vehicles stand in the dealer parking lots. Worse, I had to fly 1,200 miles to Rhode Island to buy our former, Prius Prime thanks to Southeast Toyota Region who did not (does not?) want my business. Poetic justice that I got $18,300 for the Prius Prime as trade-in for our Model 3.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  9. Prius Pete

    Prius Pete Active Member

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    Maybe the guy who does the fully charged youtube channel is biased in favour of EVs.

    "Hybrid cars were a brilliant transition technology and that transition finished, I would argue, about 4 years ago"
    So long as the vast majority of cars sold are conventional gas vehicles, no transition has finished in my opinion.

    Maybe there were Superbowl ads for electric trucks but when I watch TV, all I see is ad after ad for conventional gas trucks.

    "in 5 years time you will see tens of thousands of electric trucks on the roads of the United States". If there aren't millions on US roads, no transition has finished.

    Brits and Europeans have had a different view of hybrids vs NA. Toyota is a smaller player there. The European brands have never embraced hybrids, especially non-plug-in hybrids. They were too busy building millions of cheating diesels and spreading lies about hybrids (diesels better mpg, hybrids heavier and complex etc, etc). Now they are being forced to change and want to go directly to EVs because they can't make a good hybrid.

    I'm not anti-EV. I'm a very happy Tesla shareholder. I just think the transition is still to come and there is still a window for hybrids.
     
  10. Prius Pete

    Prius Pete Active Member

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    Toyota hybrids have been flying off the lots as fast as they can make them. Your experience buying a Prime several years ago really says nothing about overall Toyota hybrid sales today.

    I'm glad you're happy with your i3. I owned a 2002 in the 70's. BMW never again for me. Parts and repairs are too expensive.
     
  11. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    Actually, I don't think your hyperbole is accurate... The future of hybrid vehicles is more more clear than what you suggest. For example, one of the toughest markets for alt. energy vehicles is the US:

    US-Alternative-Powertrain-Sales-2011-August-2018.png
     
  12. Prius Pete

    Prius Pete Active Member

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    Hey, I agree that hybrids are not the endgame. As BEVs improve, so will their sales. Your chart predates the 2019 RAV4 Hybrid.

    US EV sales 2019 (all brands, mostly Tesla Model 3) 244713 (up 1.7% over 2018)
    US EV sales 2018 240658
    Top U.S. Electric Vehicles — 2019 vs. 2018 Best Sellers | CleanTechnica
    The Model 3 has been doing well but sales of other EVs have dropped. Maybe due to incentives ending.

    Toyota/Lexus US HEV/PHEV/FCV sales 2019 274550 (up 29% over 2018)
    Toyota/Lexus US HEV/PHEV/FCV sales 2018 213354
    Toyota Motor North America Reports December 2019, Year-End Sales - Toyota USA Newsroom
    And Toyota is just beginning its push for hybrids across its entire range.

    The auto market is changing fast. 2020 will see the Model Y and the Rav4 Hybrid Prime. Year old data is obsolete.

    What is your point PriusCamper?
     
  13. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    In my opinion, the most objective and important sentence.
    No one has to change habits, neither infrastructure, and drivers get the feel of an EV.
    And are adequate for everyone that doesn't have a garage or a plug.
     
    #13 telmo744, Feb 14, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
  14. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    What's flying off the lot near me? According to local sources it's leftover 2019 Chevy Traxes at $19.5k, advertised with financing at around $270/mo on a 72 month note with $2k down.

    America can't afford the transition.
     
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  15. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Toyota has a master plan for transitioning their product-line away from traditional vehicle. They are already well underway with architecture change necessary to enabler. Few are paying attention to that though; instead, we're getting short-sighted rhetoric. That comes from an audience obsessed with top-down approaches. Toyota's business doesn't operate that way. They work bottom-up.

    In other words, we will also be getting plug-in hybrids and electric-only choices, but the industry spinners focus on the rest of the fleet for Toyota and disregard that as important for the other automakers. It's so hypocritical, I'm really surprised so many people get suckered into the propaganda. It's an effort playing out right before our eyes with enablers more than willing to feed the narrative.

    To that, my response is: Ugh.
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Having the Toyota hybrid architecture spread across more models is a good thing. The lower operating cost gives a lot of Toyota buyers a chance to understand efficient cars without having to choose just the Prius body. Just I do wish the acceleration was more aggressive than the ICE versions.

    Acceleration and handling is an effective sales aid along with improved MPG and lower maintenance costs. I well remember the September 2013, peak Prius sales when it looked like hybrids, Toyota and others, were headed upwards towards ~4% of the market share. Then 'cheap' gas and consumer choice headed it off.

    A Toyota executive doing a 'back of the envelope' comment about 60 kWh vs Prius 1.4 kWh still bothers me. Using his math:
    • ~15 Prius = 22 kWh (BMW i3) / 1.4 kWh (Prius) :: $2.90 / 100 miles vs $2.50 / 100 miles
      • 72 mi BMW i3 vs 25 mi Prius Prime, ~3x further
    • ~40 Prus = 55 kWh (Std. Rng. Plus Model 3) / 1.4 kWh (Prius) :: $2.50 /100 miles vs $2.50 / 100 miles
      • 240 mi Model 3 vs 25 mi Prius Prime, ~10x further
    I never bought a car to save carbon but to save my greenback Yankee dollars. His comments are a big miss for me matched by the absence of a credible alternative.

    Bob Wilson
     
  17. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    Wish granted: Rav4 Prime. Also Honda and others have built "Sport-Hybrids" for several years while the pinnacle of automotive performance, the F1 championship, now run hybrids.

    Personally I'd like to the see Eco & Sport (PWR) buttons actually change the hybrid powertrain performance envelope for real (cam timing, torque application, aggressive regen, etc) and not glorified pedal dynamics.

    My 2 cents.
     
  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    "The average battery capacity in a BEV is about 60 kWh. The average battery capacity in a Toyota hybrid is 1.4 kWh. In practical terms, that means you could build 42 Priuses in place of the 60 kWh battery in one BEV."

    He has point when the batteries are supply constrained, but he loses credibility by not mentioning that many Toyota hybrids are using NiMH, which isn't used in plug ins. Toyota hybrids using Li-ion can easily switch to NiMH, and then they aren't competing with plug in makers for batteries. Though, that might cost Toyota more money at this time.
    Because Toyota was incentivizing the Rav4 hybrid by forgoing their profits and hiding the 'hybrid premium' in the price of the ICE AWD system. What Toyota has gained in the last year has not made up for what they have lost in the US. 2019 is changing direction, but I don't think it will with more plug in options arriving; a portion of Rav4 Prime sales will be at the expense of the hybrid.

    "Hybrids captured 3.2% of the light vehicle market in 2013 but were at 2% in 2018."
    Hybrid-Electric, Plug-in Hybrid-Electric and Electric Vehicle Sales | Bureau of Transportation Statistics
    This as 2019 figures, Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data - U.S. HEV Sales by Model

    Toyota's hybrid system adds $3000 to $3500 to the price when they can't hide it in other high price features. Maybe parallel hybrids will become lower cost, but they are the low numbers made phase now.
     
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  19. John321

    John321 Active Member

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    I agree with you 100% on your thinking here and I believe many hard working common sense Americans echo your thoughts on a car purchase.
     
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  20. Prius Pete

    Prius Pete Active Member

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    True, but global sales of Toyota/Lexus hybrids are at record highs in 2019. For them, the US is just one market of several. They are close to making up what they lost in North America (327K in 2019 vs 360K in 2013, 347K in 2012)

    I don't think the hybrid system in the new Yaris Hybrid is adding $3000. When you are making 2M/year of something you are not in the "low numbers" phase.
     
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