Featured Toyota's thoughts on EV adoption

I voted with my wallet:

• For Prius when I had gas cars
• For EVs when I had Prius

If nothing else it reminds me of the old "Dust to Dust" report that was also widely discredited. Until I see a paper or transcript of the Toyota claims, I don't have source material to criticize. Second hand accounts are nice but not worth the effort.

Bob Wilson

 

the scientists will be getting back to you soon

 

When you need gas, do you call in a tanker truck to fill you up will driving along side? There is additional time in getting to gas pumps too, and there can be unforeseen delays in doing so. Last trip had lines at the gas station. Two stalls were taken up by a truck and RV trailer that wasn't even fueling.

This is a best case result that actually happened. But accounting for that, the time spent charging will be less than the Lexus-level FUD on charge times presented here. The worse '4hrs' was under 12 minutes.

The charging infrastructure doesn't have a century of growth behind it. The time it adds over using gasoline will shrink.

I travel to my parents about 4 times a year. 600 miles one way that takes about 10hrs, if I manage to avoid North Va traffic.

The question was about charging time was for a cross country trip of over 2800 miles. For either of us, that will take most of a week.

I avoid flying too. Reread my post, don't miss the first half of the sentence.

A Kevin F. Brown posted couple of Indeed articles that lead to Emission Analytics to expand upon back in 2019.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ghg-potential-hybrid-vehicles-critically-needed-under-kevin-f-brown/
Toyota to Grant Open Patent Access to Drive Industry Uptake of Hybrid Vehicle Technology- Why it's Important
https://www.emissionsanalytics.com/news/hybrids-are-better
More mainstream news sites picked it up, and it ended up here.
Long-Range EVs Are The Antithesis Of Efficiency And Sustainability | PriusChat
This new to me, but related, and from the same time.
https://news.mit.edu/2019/lightweight-vehicle-electric-emissions-0826

It is important to note Brown's promotion of hybrids was as a short to mid term solution to carbon emissions. To bridge the gap until battery supply grows, and the grid shifts from fossil fuels to renewables. Maybe more work has been done, but the claim of a "full-on commitment to battery-powered cars only" from Toyota is a strawman. For example, California's 100% EV by 2035 policy is only for personal cars and trucks, and it allows PHEVs and hydrogen cars.

 

I don't see anything wrong with toyota's timeline today of a pure BEV platform in the next 5 years, and 3.5 million Lexus and Toyota BEVs in 2030, with most of toyota's other vehicles being phevs and non plug in hybrids. This is a big change in direction from october 2021 when Toyota planned 2 million bev and hydrogen vehicles and was acting like the majority would be hydrogen. At least they started investing in battery plants then. The 15 BEV model they promised quick will probably be delayed with some new bevs on the current platform, but most waiting for the new platform.

The Science though, that is completely wrong. Like the Carnegie study toyota had done that assumed batteries will remain around $1200/kwh. They are about $160/kwh today which is higher than the last couple of years because of a shortage of metals and battery production. This toyota "science" assumes that there is only so much lithium. But higher lithium prices and forecast demand will triple lithium production in 2026 from 2019 levels. These mines and brine operations are already getting set up. The price of lithium is already down 20% today from its peak last year and should fall as more production comes on line, but the price should be high enough to to keep increasing production to meet demand. It takes planning. I expect with the new battery plants coming on line and the shift to Lithium iron phosphate for the bulk of paks batteries may drop down to $50/kwh in 2030 in constant 2023 dollars. That would make a 60 kwh pack only cost the manufacturer $3000. At those prices other than weight there is not much incentive to make a hybrid instead of a phev. No way we can get to 100% bev and phev by 2030 in most of the world, but 50% seems extremely doable which is what toyota is now planning.

 

The term "strawman" has been tossed around like it was a magic way to discredit every post. Congrats to Troll Bait on making the first true strawman argument in this thread. (1) I've highlighted it in bold for ease of locating. Then I'll ignore it.

For grins, I mapped out the first part of the drive that went through New Mexico. The first leg of the trip traveled 312 miles without charging. That would be quite possible if you start with a 100% SOC from that first charger (shown as #00). The time used for that charge was not included in the world record.

After the second charge (#001) they stopped for a quick charge every 125 miles or so for the rest of the trip. According to their SOC charge rate, if they charge starting at 10% SOC and stop at 50%, the charge rate will remain at 250 kW or higher.

Yes, Virginia, We have gone back in time to the 50s when Volkswagen owners routinely reported 50 miles to the gallon. When asked how they get such great mileage it was found that it was a technique that could be applied to Fords, Chevy and Porsche too. They just lied about it.


(1) Strawman definition:
noun: strawman
1.
an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.

Troll definition:
The Oxford Dictionary describes trolling as making “a deliberately offensive or provocative online posting with the aim of upsetting someone or eliciting an angry response from them”.

 

In simpler times I remember the strawman as the scarecrow in the garden.

 

It was hyperbole. You were criticizing the charge time for not including the time taken to get to the charger, while ignoring that time is a factor when getting gasoline, let alone that delays doing so could happen.

I acknowledged that time for chargers is longer at this time.

Do you include the time your Prius Prime charged overnight in your commute time?

The question asked was what time charging adds to a trip. In my experience, people planning a such a long trip would fill up their car's gas tank a day or so before, so they are starting out without needing the refuel. I don't recall anyone responding with how much prep time they took before to the question of how long was the drive?

I think this is common practice with BEVs on such long trips when fastest time travel time is desired. Pretty sure @bwilson4web has presented such here.

The witness in the chase car also lied? They doctored all the documents and videos that were handed over to Guinness World Records? Should the time for the fraud have been included in the charge time?

I and others have acknowledged that this 2.5hr time for charging on a LA to NYC trip was best case. It is far closer to what most would spend than the 56hr assumption in the original post asking the question.

 

Charge time should only be "chargeable" if it is required in the middle of a normal trip. Cannonball runs with multiple drivers are meaningless to most of us.

Gas stations are usually 2 minutes or less from most interstates. Are the chargers for your car equally accessible with the same time and driving distance?

My favorite cheap gas station was crowded yesterday and its 20 pumps were in use or occupied by people going in to pay in cash or pee or buy a lottery ticket. But my wait was only 10 minutes, not what it would be if I was waiting for a charging stall if all were in use.

The one down the street was available but a penny more. Do chargers compete on price?

 

you can't make a long distance trip on paper. everyone has to explore the possibilities, look at the real world situation when traveling, and make their own decisions.
toyota's thoughts are fine for toyota, but they shouldn't be interfering with their marketing nonsense.

but they've been doing this since the first plug ins came out how long ago?

 

re faster than gas & get back on the road - and which is faster -
Depends on which type of electric car you're waiting behind. Fastest one will get up to 200 miles in 10 minutes. If they only need 150 miles you'll possibly get in quicker than the gas station. But if that's too fearful for some - then their Gasser is certainly the best decision for them. No one should try to dispel Their Fear or doubt or uncertainty. Even so - infrastructure & charge speeds continue to get better.
What cracks me up are the people that'll save 8 pennies per gallon in a 25 minute Costco line.


Yea - that's the kind of advertising Lexus/Toyota did to dissuade people from switching over to EV tech - that they didn't want to have to invest in. Toyota didn't "know your audience" because Their audience was going to be regulations - that fly in the face of their desires.
.

 

Which is what the charge time reported did. I don't know what was required for the record attempt, but I wouldn't expect people to count charge time while eating, at a planned destination, or hotel, when asked how much time charging added to the trip.

This wasn't a cannonball run. There was one driver, and total time of the trip wasn't recorded. I don't think Guinness would do a shortest trip time, as it would encourage speeding. Guinness did require a witness of the record attempt. They followed in a separate car.

Gas stations are usually close, but I've pulled off for a station on an info sign that was over a mile away, and in the opposite direction of my travel, more than once. They are likely more accessible than chargers now, but I've seen chargers being installed at gas stations. The accessibility advantage of gas stations is decreasing.

Ideally, the record attempt would include the additional time of getting to a charger, assuming that was the case on the route. The question is how do they measure it. Calculate off a map? First drive to a, possibly out of the way for them, station first? Then how often do they deduct these hypothetical gas station stops from the charger stops; every one, every other, etc.? If the question to answer is how much more time does charging an EV add to a trip than taking an ICE car, shouldn't we also factoring in the time of pumping gas?

Many variables to control for there for a specific answer, but we do have a general one. A trip of 400 to 600 miles in a day will take about 30 minutes longer for charging with a BEV. That's with 350kW chargers along the planned route, and driving an EV that can make full use of them. Deviate from that best case for car and chargers, and the added time will increase. Tesla's route planner has added 1 to 2 hours for supercharging to my regular 600 mile trip. There are other EV trip planners out there for those that want an idea for times with different car models and charging networks

People leaving there cars parked at the pump instead of moving to a parking spot deserve a post in the vent thread.

Can't say about the price competition between chargers. Superchargers are generally cheaper cause Tesla isn't running them for a profit. Otherwise, I don't think charger density is at a point where they need to compete on price.

I called Toyota's argument in the OP a strawman because it is based upon the premise that battery supplies are limited, and they imply that the supply will always be. Those that put forward this argument did so from the position that battery supply issue would be temporary thing. Hybrids are a good solution for the short term. Why didn't Toyota introduce them at a faster rate?

Toyota's real gripe is that hybrids aren't getting the incentives plug ins do. That doesn't mean hybrids aren't getting incentives at all. CAFE has them baked in for the models with improved fuel economy. Toyota should have been pushing for higher mpg standards if they wanted hybrids as a solution to carbon emissions. But they didn't.

 

i understand toyota's (and every other mfg) business decision. of course they want to suck up every tax dollar available.
but hybrids have had their time, and even though they still work for many (including me) renewable fuels need to be promoted.
i am really starting to think that toyota is further behind the ev curve than i thought previously, and will do whatever they can to slow things down.

 

Yes, there are. I've been to one in Kettleman City CA. When you arrive at the Tesla Supercharger the SC info on the screen shows you a 4-digit code that you can enter to get into the 24-hr locked restrooms. The code also get you into a separate coffee lounge with some vending machines and restrooms (not sure of the hours on this)

I think it is instructive that just over a decade ago people were saying that long distance EVs weren't technically possible and now we are talking about how fast we are (or aren't) building fast chargers and restrooms -- all things that are possible but we just need to do.

Mike

 

Our long distance drives from south Texas to out west are around 1,000 miles one way. These usually take me about 14-15 hrs; AKA a very long day and agree with GoogleMaps/GPS estimates. Using EV planners (needing an app should raise flags) from Tesla and/or 3rd party programs estimate 21-22 hrs plus 100 miles longer.

I've been doing these comparisons ever since the Tesla planner came out. Things are improving but there's still a long, long ways to go and the further things progress, the harder some things will become (charger lines at peak locations/times).

YMMV

 

that's exactly my point. ev acceptance and infrastructure are coming along at a nice slow pace. there won't really be any snafu's on a large scale compared to toyotas prediction

 

Google Maps is an app. The GPS I've used recently will flag up coming gas stations. They'll eventually do the same for chargers, if they don't already.

Now, you could look up and map out chargers manually, but why? How many are pulling out a paper map when going to a new place these days?

The chargers aren't everywhere yet, so you can't just head out on a long trip and assume chargers will just be along your route like a gas station. The first dedicated gas station opened in 1905, which has given them a 100 year head start over chargers.

 

In my little town, they have put in 30+ more gas pumps in the last year compared to a very few charging "pumps". Can every EV use every one of those like the ICE cars can gas pumps? Which makes the disparity even larger.

 

Any EV can use any lvl 2 charger.
For the fast charger, pretty much any EV can use any DC charger. The Tesla chargers can only be used by Tesla vehicles, although that is changing.

ChaDeMo is the red headed step child. That format is going the way of the Dinosaurs.

 

Adding to Zythryn's post; We have multiple standards in place, and the use of any particular charger depends on several things. There are different connector standards as well as protocols that govern the transfer of power from the charger to the car. There are also proprietary schemes for billing that have to be addressed.

The J1772 EVSE is not a charger. It's an interface that provides a safe level 1 or level 2 interface between a normal 120/240 volt AC outlet and the charger that is built into the car. The rate of charge will depend on the car's charger settings and the outlet that you plug it into. It's often quite suitable for overnight charging at home. A day's worth of errands can be replenished in an hour or two with a 6 kw charger. At a commercial charge point the J1772 cable is hardwired into the charger, and you plug the cable into a J1772 compatible socket on the car.

The CSS standard can accommodate the L1772 level 1 and 2 AC as well as "fast DC" for chargers that deliver 400 volts DC or more directly to the battery management circuitry. CSS is likely to replace the ChaDeMo and Tesla standards.

 

The home installed 'pumps' don't receive much press. When you see an EV, it is very likely, +90%, that they have a home installed charger. When you meet an EV owner, ask them.

In the Tesla EV world:

• Superchargers - very fast DC chargers, 120-250 kW, that are maintained and have integrated billing that electronically reads the car VIN. It truly is plug-and-go.
• CCS-1 - varies from 50-350 kW, DC charging with independent billing. Tesla offers a CCS-1 adapter at very low production rates (i.e., I'm still waiting on parts.) But testing with our BMW i3-REx found as many non-Tesla EV owners complain, they have poor support and are often down.
• CHAdeMO - a legacy, 50 kW DC charger, I borrowed an adapter and found they were slow and expensive. Tesla no longer sells the $600 adapter.

This is a good forum mostly dedicated to EV charging: https://www.insideevsforum.com/community/index.php

The presenters try to evaluate non-Tesla EVs but have come to realize poor CCS-1 charging blunts their recommendations. No amount of word salad can substitute for a broken, fast DC charger and as more CCS-1 users show up, their owner frustration grows.

Bob Wilson