Trade Wars Can Be a Game of Chicken. Sometimes, Literally.

looks like the trade wars are scaring the wall streets of the world. or it's just an excuse for some good profit taking.

 

Meh....

We levy 60b....
They levy 6b.

This is just theatrics.
I'm not wild about the Donald as President, but I give him a pass on this one.
He's doing exactly what he said that he would do.

As a used-to-be republican, I'm more of a free market kinda guy and the whole tariff thing is just a different word for 'tax'.....something that is necessary at times but that everyone thinks that somebody ELSE should pay.
The EU likes to look down their nose at this, but they're not without red ink on their hands...
What is the Common Customs Tariff? - European Commission

Sometimes?
"Regulation" is just a different way to spell tariff.....or tax.

 

Some evidence that this could expand beyond trading in merchandise:

Reports that Trump administration is considering limits on visas for Chinese citizens cause concern

 

Wow. That's remarkable.

One of the retaliation sanctions that the Chinese government had been considering was restricting the number of Chinese students going to the US, through either formal or informal measures. It's one of the biggest areas in which the US is an exporter to China: Chinese students pay huge amounts to study in the US. (In Australia, education is our third or fourth biggest export; it's not as high in the US overall, but it is one of the biggest US exports to China.)

Another potential retaliation sanction was to discourage Chinese tourists from going to the US.

So China was looking at ways to hurt the US, and it thought of these.... And now the Trump Administration is considering doing to itself what China was planning to do to punish it.

It really is stunning how self-destructive these people are. Honestly, it's like someone in a police stand-off threatening to shoot himself.

Unless trade isn't really the issue, and it's actually a racism or nationalism thing... No, surely not.

 

i read that china may buy less gov bonds, which will force interest rates up, good for me.

 

Yes, that's very likely.

But there's also the risk of them selling some of the bonds they currently hold. It depends how much chaos they want to cause. At the moment, they want to keep chaos to a minimum, but if the US gets stupider, China can do stupid too.

 

Do you think maybe they are trying to stop this from escalating?

I think this is why Trump won.

There are lots of complicated things that even quite well-informed people think they understand, but don't. And they make decisions based on their supposed understanding.

 

Here I thought he was referring to “Gummi Schuhe" ( rubber boots: German).

 

remarkable@84. US and China have had visa mini-wars in the past. None have substantially slowed tourism or foreign study. Maybe this time it will not either. But what one ought realize is that CH->US students represent $12 billion/year money flow into US, with opposite flow being much smaller. For tourism, I don't know which direction is larger.

I only know that going to US from China with Chinese tourists, they are looking to spend big bucks. Amounts that if I knew, I'd ought not disclose. Don't be shuttin' off that flow.

More central for me is the student thing. Mostly Chinese headed for grad schools; less at the undergraduate level. Overall (and to my surprise), US visa granting (denying) appears somewhat random. Not all get the goodies and those who don't just go home crying. Boo-hoo, right? Decisions are made by Department of State mid-level staff with (approximately) zero oversight. It only means that with some perceived changed guidance from Department of State high-level, there could be more boo-hoo.

Students (and their families) in China should just suck it up and go to UK/Euro or Australia instead. They should choose another path among many good paths that exist. But from US side it means chipping away at those 12 billion$, and some loss of talent.

Hard for me to see any US upside of this aspect of trade warring.

 

more openings for other students?

 

Aside from the fact that the US could lose 12 Billion because of a stupid decision. Think of the talents we miss, the chance to introduce people to our way of life, good and bad. There are definitely areas we should get out of, steel, coal. Machine tools, trade wars never work and both sides get burned.